Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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