Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 270823
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
323 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Convective parameters looking a little more favorable today as
compared to yesterday. 18z lift is in place although the boundary is
still off to our northwest. Also, cap erosion is apparent by 18z.
Will include 40 to 60 pops for this afternoon.

Rain chances will increase overnight as the upper trough axis
amplifies along the spine of the ms river. Deep moisture and
favorable omegas will combine, especially across northwestern areas
by 12z with pops increasing to 70 percent. Looks like categorical
pops during the day as the deep moisture spreads east and middle TN
remains in a favorable pva zone.

as far as any flood potential goes, the deep mrh levels will be
rather narrow in scope. However, the highest mrh levels do linger
across the northwestern portions of the cwa where 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall will be possible through Thursday.

Pops will back down a but by Friday as the aforementioned trough axis
pulls east. Dew point levels will remain on the high side but high
temps will back off a few degrees, especially on Thursday when
highs should be no warmer than the lower to mid 80s.

In the ext fcst, broad troughing to remain through Sunday with
favorable cape to cap ratios each day. 00z omegas look
neutral/favorable so pops will continue. Upper ridging will return
around mid week with more in the way of 00z subsidence indicated.
Only lower pops will be included.

For the ext temps, values will run just a degree or two above
normal. Good chance that warmer temps will return, however, by the
end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers and thunderstorms have finally come to an end this
evening. Mid to high clouds persist but should continue to thin
out over the next couple of hours. VFR flight conditions are expected
for the most part during this TAF cycle. The only exceptions will
be some IFR to LIFR fog after 10Z for KCKV due to this evening`s
rain and small dew point depressions. Winds will be very light at
all terminals throughout the cycle.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  73  83  72  87 /  50  60  80  50  40
Clarksville    90  73  82  71  87 /  50  70  80  50  30
Crossville     86  71  80  69  80 /  40  60  70  60  50
Columbia       90  73  84  71  87 /  50  60  70  50  40
Lawrenceburg   90  73  84  71  87 /  50  60  70  50  40
Waverly        89  72  81  71  87 /  50  70  80  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07


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