Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 201120
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
520 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave passing to our south is spreading clouds across Middle
Tennessee this morning. Return flow remains locked in over the
mid state, so in spite of the clouds, temperatures will warm into
the 50`s today. A strong low pressure system will deepen over the
Great Plains over the weekend, setting up a warm front far to our
north and developing a cold front that will come through Middle
Tennessee on Monday. This progressive pattern is more reminiscent
of a springtime system, but temperatures and dew points won`t be
quite warm enough to sustain widespread convection. There may be a
few storms develop along the surface front, but we`ll leave just
showers in the forecast for now. Following Monday`s fropa, it
appears that the surface and upper low will drift far enough to
our north to keep wrap-around moisture from having much effect on
the mid state. For the remainder of the week, look for
temperatures to remain at or above normal, owing to the upper flow
remaining quasi-zonal. The next active system won`t affect us
until Friday night or Saturday, with the GFS and ECMWF showing
much better agreement regarding the timing of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A rather large deck of clouds has ensconced the region in
overcast skies this morning. While most of it is VFR, KCSV will
likely deal with MVFR skies for a majority of the morning.
KCKV/KBNA/MQY could see some clearing of this lower deck in the
next several hours, but high clouds are likely to remain.

Winds will remain south to southwest and less than 10 kts.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Unger



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