Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 230757
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX HAS NOW WORKED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND DOWN INTO
WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 0730Z. COMPLEX HAS BEEN WORKING ALONG
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. H-TRIPLE-R DRIVES
THIS COMPLEX DOWN ALONG KENTUCKY BORDER BETWEEN 09Z-10Z TIME
FRAME AND PLAYS IT OUT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOWN INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. AS COMPLEX PLAYS OUT
THIS MORNING LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER A WHILE ACROSS NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH WILL GIVE TEMPS A SLOWER DIURNAL START.
MOST OF MID STATE WILL BE ON EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TODAY AS
SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO BACKDOOR INTO PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SIMILAR
SCENARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MID STATE WILL REMAIN
ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
NEARBY. THUS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A 20-30 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON-GOING. SO WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES TRIPLE DIGITS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 TODAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AND IN FAR
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY. BELIEVE MID STATE WILL REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER HAVING THE HIGHEST. MODELS KEEP UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK THEN DEVELOPS A TROUGH THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER
WITH THIS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF EASTERN U.S.
LATTER PART OF WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  95  73 /  30  30  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    93  74  94  71 /  30  30  30  20
CROSSVILLE     88  72  88  68 /  40  40  40  40
COLUMBIA       95  73  95  70 /  30  30  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   94  73  95  70 /  20  20  30  30
WAVERLY        95  74  96  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




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