Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 270015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...MOST OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND...IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. RADAR DID SHOW SOME
DECENT REFLECTIVITY RETURN ACROSS GILES COUNTY THAT IS PROBABLY
REACHING THE GROUND. NAM AND EURO MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF
RETURN.

AROUND 12Z...MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN
EDGES OF THE CWA. FOR THAT REASON...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST ONLY.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH. THEREFORE...CURRENT MINS
LOOK REASONABLE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
TX. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUR WAY AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS DURING THE TAF PD. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...CIGS WILL
LOWER TO BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 FT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN...AND REGIONAL RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITIES APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS NOTED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 10-15 DEGREES WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
THE NORTHWEST.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NORTH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A FEW
DEGREES COLDER WITH TEMPS AT 850MB DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C WHILE
THE GFS ONLY COOLS TO ABOUT -6C. EITHER WAY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEPICTED SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOLIDLY IN
THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SECOND FRONT...AND THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  57  44  50 /   0  70 100 100
CLARKSVILLE    42  55  41  46 /  20  80 100  90
CROSSVILLE     37  59  47  52 /   0  30 100 100
COLUMBIA       42  58  44  52 /  20  70 100 100
LAWRENCEBURG   43  58  44  53 /  20  80 100 100
WAVERLY        43  55  41  47 /  20  80 100  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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