Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 281047
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR BR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL END BY 14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT...MAINLY WEST WINDS. ISOLD
TSRA WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME BR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHY OF THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IS UPON
US IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY BUT
AGAIN...NOTHING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FOG ADVISORY.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS.  THIS
WILL BRING US CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH A 100-105 DEGREE RANGE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES...WE SHOULD STAY
JUST BELOW.  WILL MAINTAIN THE SPS TO COVER THIS HEAT.  NEEDS TO BE
SAID THOUGH...GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING.  RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AND WE WILL BE CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO KEEP STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION EACH
AFTERNOON.

BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LIKE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.  HAVE NEVER REALLY BEEN IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE
PARAMETERS DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS SYSTEM`S ENERGY BEING
DISPLACED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS COULD FEED A COUPLE STORMS AND PROVIDE THEM WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR SMALL HAIL.  HAVE BUMPED POPS A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LATE NIGHT
PRECIP.

ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND RAINS
COME TO AN END IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THE MID-STATE.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER ALLOWING FOR
RH VALUES TO CREATE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FEELS-LIKE ENVIRONMENT
EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75 /  30  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  40
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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