Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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448
FXUS64 KSHV 080350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS ONLY

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-30 NOW AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FOUR STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK. LAKE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
6AM TO 6PM FOR WHAT WILL BE A BANNER LEAF BLOWING DAY.

HOWEVER...OUR FIRE DANGER IS ONLY GOING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS ALL DAY. AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS ALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR BURNING THAT WILL NOT BE AS SAFE UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER
TEXAS.

WE STILL LOOK REALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH OUR
NEXT SHOT AT SOME DECENT RAINFALL MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE THE
INCREASING WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY IN THE 6-10KT RANGE BUT AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUFFICIENT MIXING...EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30KTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE HAVING BRUSHED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
COLD...ARCTIC AIR SPILLS S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

THIS FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI...TO JUST N OF GYI...INTO SE
OK NW OF HUGO...INTO NW AR S OF FSM AND RUE...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SLIPPING S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX AND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA BY
06Z...EXITING THE REGION BY AND JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
FROPA WILL PASS THROUGH DRY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING
NW WINDS. A STRENGTHENING NWRLY LLJ TO 45-50KTS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO PARTIALLY MIX DOWN AS
WELL...RESULTING IN STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12Z-00Z MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE
REGION. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU FIELD SURGING SSE INTO EXTREME SE
OK/SW AR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO PORTIONS OF N LA BY MIDDAY. THIS
CLOUD COVER...AND THE STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SE OK/SW AR...AND THUS HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE
MORE AMPLE SUN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPILL S IN WAKE OF THE
FROPA MONDAY...WITH MIN RH/S EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 20-30%.
GIVEN THESE RH/S...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE
GIVEN THE LACK OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THE LAST 2.5 WEEKS...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
GIVEN THE ELEVATED CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP.

A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AHEAD OF STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 0 TO -5C TUESDAY
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO NEAR/JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SFC RIDGING OVER CNTRL TX SHOULD EASE SE INTO THE WRN
GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN
N OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...S WINDS QUICKLY RETURN BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SFC FRONT ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS THEY APPROACH 70 DEGREES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE SECOND
FROPA...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY SEEPING S ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MIX IT S OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE W COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS SOME WETTING RAINFALL IS FINALLY POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  54  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  32  49  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  36  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  50  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/13/15



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