Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 202350
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing to begin the 00z TAF cycle but this will
be changing overnight with upper level disturbances pivoting our
way from SE TX. Regional radar mosaics showing the leading edge of
some elevated convection just 50 miles or so southwest of the LFK
terminal already this evening with this convection moving
northeast near 45 mph. Latest progs and HRRR showing this
convection in the vicinity of the LFK and MLU terminals in the
00z-06z timeframe with IFR/LIFR ceilings quickly filling in behind
the convection overnight. After 08z or so...we should transition
into more of a scattered light rain and/or drizzle scenario with
strong isentropic lift continuing to go along with the low
ceilings. By mid morning through the afternoon hours...we
transition into more scattered convection as the parent shortwave
begins to influence the region from the west. By that
time...ceilings should rebound from LIFR/IFR conditions to MVFR
conditions.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Well overcast now in Shreveport with high clouds at peak heating
has busted our update. It will be a mild night with a chance for
thunderstorms, mainly over our SE corner, but from Hemphill to
Natchitoches and Monroe keep an eye to the sky spotters with a
slight risk. Rapid development could bring down some wind damage
or tornado and or hail this evening and some of the overnight.
This impulse tonight is over the Rio Grande now and will race
Eastward. Some sort of watch may be issued before midnight.

The big kicker in the long wave pattern is over S CA/AZ and will
be here overnight Saturday into early Sunday, again poised for
perhaps organized thunderstorm action late tomorrow, mainly for
a hail threat under the core of the parent low. Models crop up
some scattered activity during the day with divergence aloft and
while still warm, tomorrow with more clouds and less wind may be
a tad cooler. The rest of the is dry with our next slight chance
mid to late week with a weak front. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  73  50  64 /  20  40  50  30
MLU  56  74  53  65 /  50  20  60  30
DEQ  48  71  46  60 /  10  30  60  30
TXK  53  72  49  61 /  20  30  60  30
ELD  54  72  50  62 /  20  40  60  30
TYR  55  72  49  63 /  10  40  40  20
GGG  54  72  49  63 /  10  40  40  20
LFK  57  75  51  65 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13


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