Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 270437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1137 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Tstms to our west may affect KTXK during the first couple of
hours in the TAF pd, but are not expected to affect any other
terminals attm. MVFR cigs to affect most terminals overnight and
through at least mid day across the region. Otherwise, sly winds
will continue across the region between 10 and 15 kts with a few
gusts, before diminishing in speed after sunset Monday. /12/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1031 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

Have updated the forecast to include severe thunderstorms number
88. Adjusted the overnight low temperatures by lowering slightly
and made changes to the rain chances for the Northwest sections of
the Four State Region. This evening the upper level trough axis
trailed from Central Kansas across Central and into Southwest
Texas, with a surface low over Central into Southwest
Oklahoma and a dryline dropping Southwest across Texas.
Widespread to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing
in associated with the upper trough and the surface systems, and
will continue into the overnight hours. The higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms will remain over the Northwest sections
of the Four State Region as the surface low lifts to the Northeast
toward North and East Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, trailing
the associated dry-line/cold front into Northeast Texas near 7 AM
Monday. The surface boundary will move across the forecast area
during the day Monday and as it slows expected to become nearly
stationary over parts of Deep East Texas and lower Northwest and
North Central Louisiana by Tuesday morning. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

Mid-level shortwave to move into west-central Arkansas tonight
allowing for sufficient instability to support strong to severe
convection mainly along the I-30 corridor. Moisture, however, a
key ingredient in convective development is still lacking.
Surface dewpoints in the lower 50s across this area raises some
questions on whether moisture could recover quickly enough to
support ongoing deep layer convection. Will continue monitoring
south- central OK and north Texas for persistent convection along
with low-level moisture advection throughout the evening.
According to rapid refresh guidance, convection is forecast to
move into McCurtain county and northeast Texas just before
midnight and continue through around 3 AM. Most of the convection
will remain north of Interstate 20. Damaging winds expected to be
the main threat.

Weak frontal boundary that will be the trigger for overnight
convection will swing east across the region on Monday bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the ArkLaTex. Front is
forecast to linger south of Interstate 20 through Tuesday allowing
for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Front
to lift north on Wednesday as a surface low deepens across the
Texas Panhandle. Pressure gradient to increase areawide with south
winds possibly approaching Lake Wind Advisory criteria across
east Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms again possible on Wednesday night
as a surface and upper-low across Texas wing northeast across the
ArkLaTex. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be
possible with this system. Progressive pattern to continue with
another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the
forecast period. Models are still inconsistent on the timing and
location of this system.

Temperatures throughout the forecast period to range from highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s each day and lows in the 60s through
mid week before dipping into the 50s late in the work week. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/


SHV  65  82  62  83 /  20  30  10  20
MLU  64  82  63  82 /  10  40  20  20
DEQ  59  77  50  77 /  70  30  10  10
TXK  62  79  56  78 /  50  30  10  10
ELD  62  80  57  78 /  20  30  20  10
TYR  63  80  61  82 /  30  20  10  20
GGG  64  81  61  82 /  30  20  10  20
LFK  66  84  66  86 /  10  20  20  20




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