Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 140533 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1133 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 14/06Z TAF period. An
extensive cirrus shield has shown signs of gradually building more
NNE across E TX/N LA late this evening, and see no reason for
this not to continue through the period as an upper low over Baja
is reinforced by a digging upper trough diving S through the
Rockies, thus providing a WSW flow aloft over the region. In
addition, a weak cold front extending from Wcntrl TX through the
DFW Metroplex into SE OK/Wrn and Nrn AR will gradually seep S into
NE TX/SW AR through/shortly after daybreak Thursday, eventually
drifting S across and S of the I-20 corridor during the afternoon.
The cirrus shield is expected to expand NE across much of the
region during the afternoon/evening, with some post-frontal cu
possible over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR just beyond the end of this TAF
period. Light SW or Lt/Vrb winds tonight will become NNE 6-9kts
with the fropa Thursday. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1002 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Local terrain effects are once again proving to be a major
forecast hurdle with regards to temperatures tonight, especially
across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. At 03z, the
temperature in Idabel was 50 degrees F, but Broken Bow, De Queen,
and Mt. Herman have already fallen into the mid 30s. The low
temperature forecast for tonight was lowered by several degrees
across the northern half of McCurtain County and adjacent portions
of extreme Southwest Arkansas.

Temperatures have also fallen rather quickly at Lufkin despite
quite a bit of cirrus clouds across Deep East Texas. Forecast
temperatures were also lowered by a few degrees across our far
southwest zones in Deep East Texas. However, the combination of
clouds and dewpoints still in the mid 30s should limit of how much
cooling occurs.

Updated text products have been sent.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  61  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  37  59  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  28  57  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  37  57  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  38  61  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  36  61  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  36  63  39  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/09



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