Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260003
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
703 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, VFR with S/SE sfc winds 5-15kts. Overall pattern
remains the same with MVFR cigs overnight and into the early
morning hours. The upper low over S CA is moving East and has a
load of Pacific moisture focused in on E TX although the computer
models remain flashey with precip areas and we have VCTS in at our
sites again for tomorrow with increasing coverage into Friday. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Have elected to raise pops to chance category across portions of
North central LA and Northeast LA per latest radar trends.
Precipitation amounts will be relatively low but a few rumbles of
thunder can not be ruled out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

UPDATE...
SCT showers and TSTMS currently developing over NE LA and SE AR so
will update text and gridded forecasts to account for the remainder
of this Wednesday afternoon. /VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of quiet conditions expected through late Thursday
morning before SCT showers and TSTMS spread from W to E across the
forecast area for Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

Seasonably strong short wave trough to move SW to NE from the Four
Corners area through the central US through Saturday morning. Expect
numerous showers and TSTMS to develop with this trough. The GFS model
shows some bullseyes of very heavy rainfall across E TX but the ECMWF
model shows lighter totals. Until confidence increases in the storm
timing and rainfall totals...will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at
this time.

Appears Sunday should provide a break from the weather...but another
trough to traverse the area for Memorial Day through Tuesday morning
with SCT to numerous showers and TSTMS expected.

The bottom line for the upcoming holiday weekend is unsettled
conditions with the exception of most of Sunday. Area travelers and
vacationers need to be mindful of developing weather conditions.

Unfortunately...SW flow continues for the middle of next week through
the first days of June with rain in the forecast as another trough
passage is progged.  /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  84  71  81 /  20  40  50  70
MLU  73  86  72  84 /  20  40  30  40
DEQ  72  82  69  77 /  20  50  60  80
TXK  73  83  70  79 /  20  50  60  80
ELD  73  85  70  82 /  20  50  40  60
TYR  74  82  71  79 /  20  50  60  80
GGG  74  83  71  80 /  20  50  60  70
LFK  75  83  73  82 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/08



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