Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 080535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS ISOLD...AND CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-30. ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS ARE VFR AND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NEAR 500 MB WITH SFC WINDS AT LEAST 5 KTS
ACROSS AREA...WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CLOUD DECKS FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER 08/10Z. FOG WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KMLU TERMINAL...WHERE CURRENT TEMP DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION OF 4 DEGREES. VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD
AFTER 08/15Z WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS REMAINING AND ANY OTHER CLOUD
DECKS REMAINING SCATTERED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ON THE DOWNWARD TREND SOUTH OF I-20 BUT A
FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS NEAR RUSK AND JACKSONVILLE...AS WELL AS JUST
WEST OF TYLER AFTER A STRONG TSTM RECENTLY PRODUCED A 35 MPH WIND
GUST AT TYR AIRPORT. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BACK SOUTH OF I-20 OVER THESE AREAS IN E TX THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING AND THEN LIMIT POPS TO JUST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
SRN OK/NRN TX. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
SO NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR SHOWING SCT TSTMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME NRN SECTIONS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE...DISORGANIZED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE
CONVECTION ACROSS SE OK/SW AR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN BUILDING IN OVER THE SERN
U.S. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE STALLED FRONT
MOVES BACK NWD AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS WILL DRY US OUT AND WILL
ALSO PUSH OUR MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY COME IN DURING THE WEEKEND
FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES/PARISHES...BUT THE RIDGE IS FCST TO DRIFT
OVHD AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SQUASH ANY CHANCES FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. TEMPS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE AIDED UPWARDS TOWARDS THE
CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY AS SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
DEPLETED. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  74  94 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  75  94  74  94 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  72  90  70  92 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  74  92  73  93 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  73  93  73  94 /  10  10   0  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  74  92  73  93 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  75  94  74  93 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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