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000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$