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000
FXUS64 KSHV 272325
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
625 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Outside of possible MVFR ceilings across portions of east Texas by
daybreak Wednesday morning, VFR conditions to prevail throughout
the terminal forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight
to become southeast at around 5 to 10 knots after 28/15Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Quite a bit of scattered convection has developed just south of
the CWA and along the Gulf coast near the combination of a weak
stationary front and a weak upper trough over Southeast Texas.
Most of this activity will stay south of the area, but a few
isolated storms could move into portions of Deep East Texas and
the Toledo Bend Country through early this evening. Isolated, but
quite robust, convection has developed farther northwest near the
DFW Metroplex near a weakness in the surface ridge over the Ohio
River Valley and the very tail end of an upper trough axis. The
steering flow aloft is quite weak, and these storms have shown
very little movement of the last couple of hours. I cannot
completely rule out these storms brushing some of our westernmost
counties in East Texas, mainly west of a line from Mount Pleasant
to Jacksonville, but the chances appear to be low at this time.
Any convection that does move into our CWA should gradually weaken
and dissipate before midnight. A similar situation is expected to
unfold on Wednesday, but most of the rain chances will be
confined to locations south of Interstate 20.

Rain chances will increase and spread northwest across the area on
Thursday and Friday as the Texas coastal low moves northeast and
east along the Northwest Gulf Coast and towards the Southeast
CONUS. By late Friday the pattern will transition somewhat. The
flow aloft will become more west-northwesterly as a broad upper
trough moves eastward across the Northern Plains. Thunderstorm
complexes are expected develop Friday through Sunday across
Oklahoma. These complexes will then be steered southeast towards
our area, most likely impacting Southeast Oklahoma and portions of
Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Texas. Thunderstorm chances will
begin to diminish on Sunday as the upper trough moves into
Southeast Canada and an upper ridge axis begins to move into the
High Plains.

Temperatures will generally hold steady over the next week or warm
very slightly. Most locations will be in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees F for daytime highs.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  91  73  88 /  20  10  10  30
MLU  68  90  72  87 /  10  20  10  40
DEQ  67  91  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
TXK  69  90  72  89 /   0  10  10  20
ELD  67  91  72  87 /   0  10  10  30
TYR  71  90  74  91 /  20  10  10  20
GGG  70  90  73  90 /  20  10  10  30
LFK  71  90  73  90 /  30  30  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/09