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000
FXUS64 KSHV 181045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z. HOWEVER...EARLY IN THE PERIOD...EXPECT
SOME MARGINAL FLIGHT WEATHER...AS SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE
CONVECTION. THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OF THE AREA BY 16Z. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT HAS SERVED AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH E OK/W AR. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE
OLD FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY
LATE THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEAR KFSM TO
OUR SE ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND SOME OF THE VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME QPF
IN OUR ERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN OUT AS LATEST
SAT/WV IMAGES INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

RIDING ALOFT WILL KEEP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES F AREAWIDE. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE MUCH WETTER AND EARLIER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. GFS/NAM
ARE MUCH LATER...NOT DEVELOPING ANY QPF IN THE CWA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...IT SEEMS THAT THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN THE WINNER SO HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
MORE IN TERMS OF THE GFS/NAM IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO HIGHER IN DELAYING RAIN CHANCES AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE W OF THE AREA EVEN INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BEGAN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD IMPULSE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINATION OF THIS IMPULSE AND RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM SWLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DRY BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND BRING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  80  57  80 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  53  78  55  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  75  53  77  53  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TXK  74  53  79  55  79 /  20  10  10  10  30
ELD  74  53  78  53  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  75  54  79  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  76  55  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  56  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/09