Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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