Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 280308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WITH CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WORDING AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY STRATUS AND
BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCT CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT AND
VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS AT E TX TERMINALS OUT OF THE
SE AT AROUND 5 KTS. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE WAS KEEPING
CONVECTION RATHER ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE HIGH
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD POPS AT 30 PERCENT TONIGHT...AS UPPER FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFULENT WITH TIME...MORE CONDUCIVE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IN
THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...MEAN RH INCREASES
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...WHERE A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CWA WIDE. THIS WAVE
BECOMES CUT OFF BETWEEN RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESSERT
SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SO EXPECT THE WET
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE HEADING UP OVER THE WEEKEND...AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PARK IN CWA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NO BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN AREAS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND SATURDAY
NIGHTS FRONT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  86  71  85 /  30  40  20  50
MLU  70  85  71  86 /  30  40  20  40
DEQ  68  84  69  82 /  30  40  40  50
TXK  69  84  71  84 /  30  40  30  50
ELD  68  85  71  85 /  30  40  20  50
TYR  71  85  71  83 /  30  40  30  50
GGG  70  85  70  84 /  30  40  30  50
LFK  71  85  72  85 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05


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