Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 061740
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1140 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.AVIATION...
Low clouds remain entrenched across the region. A clearing line
just north of I-10 will struggle against low lvl ne winds to
advance nwd and likely not reach KLFK terminal. Remainder of area
will see an increase in low mvfr decks becmg ifr, and mostly ifr
after 07/00z. Cigs may remain mvfr for longer periods at KTXK and
KELD. Late night cigs may become lifr with ocnl patchy fog, mainly
when drizzle occurring, although lack of sfc based inversion will
allow low clouds to be prevailing obstruction. Sfc winds n-nw this
aftn around 5 kts, gradually becmg ne at sfc overnight./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1112 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a board trough over the continental US
this morning, with a couple of disturbances moving through the
primarily westerly flow aloft. As for the ArkLaTex, a relatively
solid low cloud deck prevails, following our rain of the past few
days. In fact, drizzle remains a possibility across the region
today, given the thickness of the stratus. At this time, Tyler is
the only location reporting drizzle, but cannot rule it out
elsewhere. There are also a few breaks in the clouds, mainly over
the northern Arklatex, but these breaks in the clouds should not
be enough to make a significant difference in our high
temperatures today, which will be in the 50s. Our current forecast
looks on track, and no updates are planned at this time.

The primary concern with the afternoon forecast package will be
with the cold front diving south for Thursday and Friday.
Thankfully, it looks like the coldest air will arrive after the
moisture is out of here. However, this will likely be the coldest
air we have seen since the Winter of 2015, with overnight
temperatures falling into the teens and lower 20s. Although it
looks like temperatures may remain right above our hard freeze
criteria, it will be down right cold, and now is the time to start
making preparations for the cold temperatures. Palmer

AVIATION... /Issued at 651 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/
For the ArkLaTex, LIFR/IFR cigs and some vsby may get to MVFR at
a few terminals, especially this afternoon with some heating to
lift the decks. Sfc winds will keep W/NW early and veer N/NE later
today. Aloft...our winds are NW/W slowly increasing speeds to
50-90KTS into flight levels. Even more speed and backing to SW
above FL300. Outlook is slow improvement until Arctic fropa 08/06z.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  45  56  36 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  55  44  56  38 /  10  10  10  30
DEQ  52  39  47  29 /  10  10  20  20
TXK  52  41  50  31 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  52  40  51  33 /  10  10  10  30
TYR  54  46  56  31 /  10  10  20  30
GGG  56  45  57  33 /  10  10  20  30
LFK  60  47  61  39 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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