Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231708
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1008 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Across the forecast area this morning...a thin veil of high cloud
combined with light WNW winds is giving the region a temperature
range from the upper 30s to the mid and upper 40s.

For today...the H5/H7 ridge that had been amplified over the western
portion of the country is beginning to flatten/break down as an
upper level low works into the Pacific NW. The ridge axis associated
with the upper level ridge will traverse the Plains region thru the
day settling south of the CWA going into Friday.

The approaching upper low working into the west coast will make its
way off the Rockies and thru the Plains region Friday/Friday night.
This system will be accompanied by a surface cold front that will
push thru the area about the same timeframe...with some model timing
differences.

Going into the first half of the upcoming weekend...the passage of
the upper trough will allow for amplified upper ridging to re-assert
itself over the western portions of the country. As the upper ridge
amplifies in the Rockies...surface high pressure rolls off the
Rockies and east into the Plains east of the area by Saturday night.

The result of the aforementioned systems working thru the area...dry
weather will be expected. The cold front will come thru dry as all
dynamics stay with upper trough north of the CWA. Plus surface ridge
to the south and east of the area during this time blocking any
pertinent low level moisture from working into the area.

The CWA will see near record(above normal) highs in the lower 70s
today and possibly even Friday but will depend on fropa timing. For
Saturday...low 60s present with coolest spots east due to proximity
of surface ridge axis shifting east of the CWA. Overnight lows
tonight in the lower 40s will give way to low 30s Friday night as
CAA works into the region behind the front. Saturday night...lower
to mid 30s. The passage of the cold front Friday will also bring
gusty winds into the region with 30-35 mph gusts possible.

Please refer to the Climate section below for information on records
for highs today and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main variance in models in the extended has been the evolution
of a trough passage Monday night through Wednesday. 12Z ECMWF showed
a strong solution with closed H5/H7 upper low tracking from the four
corners over our CWA, but this has been the run to run outlier. 00Z
ECMWF still tries to close off the southern portion of the trough,
but now is much further south and weaker (would be dry for our CWA
if this solution verified). 00Z GFS and GEM are in line with
previous runs and show a much more progressive positively tilted
trough passage. Considering the 00Z trends matching the much more
consistent GFS/GEM the decision was made to continue a dry
forecast through the extended.

Regarding temperatures: Above normal (near record) highs in the 70s
will be possible Sunday and Monday ahead of the approaching trough,
with temperatures closer to seasonal normals from Tuesday and
Wednesday (near 50).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1005 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Upper
ridge centered over the Rockies will result in warm and dry
conditions. Cirrus will continue to spill over the ridge. Friday
morning, a cold front will move through the terminals with surface
winds shifting to the northwest and becoming gusty.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Today 11/23...and Friday
11/24:

                      Today                  Friday

Goodland KS          72F in 1925           82F in 1910

McCook NE            72F in 2005           72F in 1995

Burlington CO        72F in 1925           75F in 2012

Hill City KS         72F in 2005           73F in 1923

Colby KS             84F in 1998           75F in 1915

Tribune KS           82F in 1998           76F in 1942

Yuma CO              76F in 2002           73F in 1990

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN



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