Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180420

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
920 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

Primary forecast concern is on the near critical to critical fire
weather conditions expected Sunday afternoon.

Have upgraded a large portion of the prior Fire Weather Watch to a
Red Flag warning based on the expected wind speeds and low
humidity across the area from Sunday mid day through early
evening. As our CWA will be in the transition zone between the
lowest RH values and the area of higher wind speeds, some of the
area within the Red Flag Warning may be a bit marginal in meeting
the hard criteria. But after coordinating with surrounding
offices and SPC, have decided to include the marginal areas in the
Red Flag warning since those areas are currently covered by a
critical Day 2 FWX outlook area and they could very easily meet
critical fire weather criteria, even if only for a brief time,
and that it would be better if those areas were covered by the
highlight since such warm temperatures with corresponding low RH
values and gusty winds are not a regularly occurring event in mid
February. The main area of concern is along and south of
Interstate 70 with some areas immediately along and just north of
Interstate 70 possibly, although with less confidence, may see
elevated or near critical fire weather conditions. Those areas
have been maintained in a Fire Weather Watch.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

Much colder air works into the region Sunday night into Monday
morning as H7 troughing progresses eastward. Antecedent southwest
flow will keep the mid levels dry through around 06Z. Low level
moisture is enough to allow for a mention of light precipitation for
the northwestern corner of the CWA from 06Z through around 15Z
Monday morning. It is worth mentioning that the NAM is currently the
only model showing any kind of precipitation as both the GFS and
ECMWF are dry. Any precipitation that falls will be freezing drizzle
or a mix of freezing drizzle and light snow as the layer of sub-
freezing air will be quite shallow. Highs on Monday will vary
greatly with a dynamic and sharp gradient from north to south
reflecting the FROPA. Look for highs in the northern portions of
the CWA to only reach the middle to upper 20s with highs in our
southern counties to approach the upper 40s. Highs will likely
occur early during the day with plummeting temperatures following
the front.

A second surge of much colder air pushes into the region late Monday
afternoon. Light snow will be possible through the evening and into
the early overnight hours, ending around or just after midnight.
Accumulations will generally remain less than a half inch. 850 mb
temperatures fall to near -18C by sunrise Tuesday, allowing
overnight temperatures to fall deep into the single digits. High
temperatures will only climb into the teens to lower 20s Tuesday.

Another cold night is in store Tuesday into Wednesday morning with
widespread upper single digits and 850 mb temps around -10C.
Temperatures will rebound slightly compared to Tuesday with high
temperatures generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Flow aloft
will become southwesterly through the day.

Near average temperatures prevail on Thursday and Friday with highs
climbing into the 40s to near 50 degrees.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 920 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions through the period. South winds gusting
around 30kts expected from taf issuance through about 13z with
slightly lower gusts from the southwest 14z-23z under just some
high cloudiness. After 00z winds slowly veer to the southwest
under 11kts in response to an approaching arctic cold front.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through about 04z then an increasing
threat of mvfr/ifr cigs/vis possible through 06z behind an arctic
frontal passage. From taf issuance through 12z south winds around
13kts. From 13z-21z south winds around 10kts, 22z-04z winds slowly
back to the southeast then east then northeast at speeds under
10kts. After 05z some reductions in visibility with sub vfr cigs
moves in from the northeast behind arctic front. Winds from the
northeast gusting near 20kts possible. For now have introduced
some lower clouds and mist.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM
     CST/ Sunday for KSZ027>029-041-042.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for KSZ013-014.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Sunday for COZ253-254.



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