Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290122
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
622 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST SENT TO ADJUST WORDING FOR CLOUD COVER BASED
ON LATEST OBS/SATELLITE TREND. THE CWA CURRENTLY LIES IN BETWEEN
EXITING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WHICH HAVE MOVED EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM COLORADO...OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. SINCE LATEST OBS AROUND AREA ALSO SHOW NO
CLOUDS...HAVE WORDING ZONES TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS/BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTHERLY UNDER 10 MPH
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THEY WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN...CREATING AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
LIKELY CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH OR SO.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOW TO MID TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WITH LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC AIRMASS AND COLDER AIR
POURS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

THE MEAN JET POSITION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.

EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...WITH
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...WIND CHILL VALUES OF -15 TO -25 WILL BE COMMON WITH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -25 TO -30 BELOW ZERO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. WAS CONTEMPLATING
A COMBINATION OF WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA FROM 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE
REGION EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE. BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONFUSION...THOUGHT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE BETTER FROM
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH ABOUT 21Z ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE TREND
OF GOING WITH HIGHER POPS AND 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
24-36 HOURS...IT MAY BE A BETTER IDEA TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MULTIPLE WINTER RELATED CONDITIONS OVER AN EXTENDED
TIME PERIOD. WITHOUT SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS AND WITH A
GENERAL DEFERRAL TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGE IN ORDER TO NAIL
DOWN SOME POSSIBLE SNOWFALL TRENDS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. WILL TEND TO HIT THE CONDITIONS PRETTY
HARD IN THE HWO/SPS INSTEAD.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 30S BEF0RE THERE
IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE LOW
AS AN OPEN WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS A CLOSED LOW INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE TENDED TO
KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHES FORECAST IN PLACE THAT MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES
THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 14Z-15Z MONDAY WITH SCT-
BKN050-100. AFT 14Z-15Z...CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR/IFR MIX AS
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES REGION. CEILINGS WILL DROP FROM BKN025 TO
OVC005 BY 19Z MONDAY WITH VISIBILITY 3-4SM FROM 14Z-18Z...THEN 1SM
IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WINDS SE 5-10KT THRU 08Z-10Z THE NNW NEAR
10KTS AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. BY 15Z...NNE 10-25KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN


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