Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
539 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough over the
Northern Plains, with a weaker trough over the Desert Southwest.  A
corridor of higher moisture continues over the Plains between the
troughs over the west half and the ridge over the eastern CONUS.

Some areas of drizzle continue over the Tri-State Area overnight as
weak lift moves across and interacts with the saturated environment
near the surface.  The drizzle should end before sunrise as
subsidence from the base of the trough from the Northern Plains
moves over the forecast area.

Today cloud cover will gradually clear from north to south as drier
air moves in from the north.  There will not be any change in the
air mass from yesterday.  However the surface high will shift east
of the forecast area, allowing warmer air to start filtering back in
and the added sunshine will cause highs to be warmer than yesterday.
Light winds will shift from the north to the east in response to the
surface high moving east.

Tonight lows will be similar to last night.  Overnight winds will
become variable as the axis of the surface high moves overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

As the deepening upper level short wave trough over the Four Corners
Region slides northeast it will send out a few smaller scale short
wave troughs ahead of it over the forecast area.  The short wave
troughs fill fairly quickly once they move east of the Colorado
border as they are moving into the ridge over the southeast CONUS.
Currently looks like the west third of the forecast area will have
the best chance for rainfall from Wednesday night into Friday.  Am
expecting most of the rainfall to be showers, but theta-e lapse
rates will be favorable for some thunder.

Surface winds for Wednesday and Thursday will be light due to a high
pressure at 850mb.  The surface winds will turn more to the south by
Wednesday evening as the surface high shifts back across the Tri-
State Area.

Temperatures will gradually warm Wednesday and Thursday.  The
coolest temperatures will be over the west where the cloud cover and
rainfall will be located.

Friday-Saturday: Will have a frontal boundary at the surface across
western portions of the CWA to start Friday. Aloft, upper low and
longwave trough just to the west will bring strong SW flow. GFS
shows decent theta-e gradient. Will have a chance of showers for
most of the area Friday morning and afternoon. Chances of rain wane
as we go through the rest of the period and the upper level feature
progresses off to the north. Temperatures should be below to near
normal for the period.

Sunday-Monday: Some model disagreement for this period. Most global
models develop a closed low/longwave trough over the Montana region
by Sunday morning. Latest ECMWF does not amplify the trough much as
the upper low moves off to the east which would have little affect
on temps and would bring some rain chances to northern portions of
the area. The latest GFS deepens the trough and pushes a cold front
through the area, bringing better coverage of showers and storms
areawide and cooling temps down. Looking at GFS soundings, Sunday
afternoon and evening would have the potential of seeing some strong
thunderstorms if the current model run were to verify. Will need to
monitor this as we go through the week. Forecast is a blend of
current models.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the
first few hours of the TAF when stratus will be impacting the
sites. Am expecting the stratus north of KMCK to impact the site
shortly after 12z. Otherwise the stratus at both sites will
scatter out around 14z or so. After that winds will be light and
the sky will gradually clear.




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