Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 062005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW
MOVING ONTO THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  VERY DRY AIR IS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE HAS FALLEN TO AROUND
600MB...INDICATING THIS IS A DEEP TROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH AN OMEGA RIDGE WAS OVER THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST.  AT THE SURFACE A LOW WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS TO
CONTINUE AS A BREEZY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THE WINDS
WILL DECLINE EARLY THIS EVENING.

DURING THE EVENING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AS SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH.  LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER
WEST/NORTH DURING THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING A BAND OF WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS
OVER PART OF THE AREA.  MODELS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS FALLING...SO AM THINKING SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST
AND STRENGTHEN TOWARD EARLY EVENING.  MEANWHILE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE EAST OF A SURFACE DRY LINE THAT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE/CINH INDICATE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE 20-30 MILES EAST OF THE DRY LINE WHERE THE 700-
500MB MIXING RATIOS ARE HIGHER.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOWER CINH WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE
INITIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND TO THE
NORTH FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.  AM THINKING THIS WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY BEFORE MID AFTERNOON IN A
NARROW LINE NEAR THE DRY LINE.  LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE MIXED
LAYER CINH ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATES EAST OF THE DRY LINE AS LIFT
STRENGTHENS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE. AM THINKING THIS WILL
ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO QUICKLY EXPAND EAST OF THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

REGARDING HAZARDS...MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL.  HAIL SIZES UP TO BASEBALL SIZE ARE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.  THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS OVER
GOVE/EASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SEVERE WX CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES LIFTING NORTH AND
TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
ENHANCED WORDING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING RW/TRW AT THE ONSET OF THE DAY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH CONDITIONS
WORSENING BY MIDDAY AS DRYLINE SETS UP AGAIN BUT FURTHER EAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS. THIS WILL STILL PUT EASTERN
ZONES IN LINE FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHICH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE OUT FOR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
AFTERNOON HRS SUNDAY WITH ENHANCED WORDING FOR SAID POTENTIAL
SEVERE. SURFACE LOW STILL REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THRU THE DAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR
TRW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WX TO CROP UP BY THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TO LESSEN GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST.

NEXT MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SLOW PASSAGE EASTWARD OF THE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
REGION. THIS IS GOING TO QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES FROM APPROX 12Z TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THESE SYSTEMS EXITS...THE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE PLAINS REGION CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIME OF PASSAGE WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ONLY WARRANT A MIX OF SL CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S THRU THE LOWER TO
MID 70S SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. WITH THE END-WEEK SHORTWAVE...MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ALLOWING FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOCALES NEAR 50F OVER
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON
RETURN NORTHERLY FLOW GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AS LATE AS THIS EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT. SITE WEST OF KGLD IS
CURRENTLY GUSTING...SO INCLUDED GUSTS AT KGLD. AM EXPECTING THE
GUSTS TO OCCUR ANY TIME AT THE SITE.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR WILL
AGAIN BE A PROBLEM. WIND SHEAR MAY END AT KMCK BY 10Z OR LAST
AS LATE AS 14Z OR SO.

AM EXPECTING MAIN ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KGLD BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL


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