Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1117 PM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

Issued at 835 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Across the forecast area this evening...temps are ranging from the
mid 50s up to the low 60s...with an ESE flow and mainly clear
skies. Only cloud cover present over portions of the CWA continue
to be high thin cirrus moving from west to east over the region.
Surface ridge continues to sit over the Central/Northern
Plains...allowing for the current surface wind regime. Only some
minor temp adjustments from trend in last few hours...otherwise
forecast is in great shape.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Except for the possibility of a few high clouds and minor
differences in temperature, very little change is expected in the
weather conditions across the Central High Plains region over the
next 24-36 hours.

The strong ridge aloft remains in place over the Rockies and High
Plains through Friday. The ridge extends from the high pressure
center over the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Canadian border
between a strong low pressure that remains nearly stationary over
the eastern U.S. while the next strong low pressure area to affect
the region early next week begins to rotate into the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, higher pressure remains over eastern
Nebraska and eastern Kansas while a trough of lower pressure
extends along the Rocky Mountain Front Range. A couple of weak
short wave troughs move up the back side of the upper ridge
tonight and Friday, which will help deepen the surface lee trough
and will bring some high clouds east of the Rockies and across the
high plains. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry with
temperatures overnight in the 40s and high temperatures on Friday
in the 70s across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

For this extended forecast period, the main feature to keep an eye
on is the powerful upper level disturbance expected to kick out over
the Great Plains early next week. This system could bring several
threats, including severe thunderstorms, fire weather, high winds
and potentially a frost/freeze.

Quiet weather is forecast from tomorrow night through the weekend. A
ridge of high pressure should remain over the Great Plains. However,
this ridge quickly breaks down as the upper low over the eastern
United States finally moves northeast and an upper level disturbance
reaches the Pacific Coast. Forecast guidance indicates a slim chance
of a shower/storm Saturday afternoon/evening. However, gulf moisture
return will not yet be underway and instability appears quite poor.
Confined slight chance pops to Gove and Graham counties, a reduction
from the previous forecast run.

Guidance currently projects a strong, negatively tilted trough
beginning to impact the area Monday and Tuesday. A substantial
dryline should set up in east Colorado, spreading east through this
period. Ahead of the dryline, south winds and some moisture
advection should lead to windy conditions and potential strong to
severe thunderstorms. Instability forecast projects SBCape generally
less than 500 J/kg so instability, as well as moisture return,
remain a large question mark. Wind shear within this severe weather
environment should be abundant. The severe potential is definitely
something to watch but current indicates suggest that the worst
activity may be east of the area Tuesday. Most likely, the dryline
should be through the area by Tuesday morning. Some showers/isolated
thunderstorms are still possible as the upper low passes just north
of the Tri-State Region.

Behind the dryline, fire weather concerns should be the primary
focus. Very dry, downsloping air spreads in from the southwest. With
a surface low deepening, wind speeds should be plenty high enough to
observe critical fire weather conditions. The main limitations right
now are: 1. Minimum RHs, but guidance this far out tends to be much
higher than what is actually observed, and 2. Fuels - most recent
collaboration with partners indicated fuels aren`t quite dry enough
over Kansas but fuels are susceptible to large fire growth over
Colorado. Fire weather could be the larger threat with this system,
particularly if the dryline moves through sooner rather than later.

A vigorous cold front will pass through once this system heads east.
The cold front will bring cooler temperatures, dry air, and
potentially windy/very windy conditions depending on daytime mixing
and track of the upper level low and associated jet. Frost/freeze
concerns are there but remain uncertain how cold temperatures will
get. Current thinking is that we could see some frost across
portions of the area. A freeze is possible but guidance does not
suggest this is a likely scenario at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Conditions...VFR w/ SKC becoming SCT-BKN200 by 16z Friday.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........SE around 10kts...w/ gusts 15-20kts possible from 16z
Friday-03z Saturday for both KMCK/KGLD.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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