000
FXUS63 KGLD 200835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SPINS OVER AREAS OF
MONTANA/WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND INTERACT WITH WIND SHIFT LINES AND DRYLINES...GENERALLY
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 90S WITH A FEW 100S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH. FOR FRIDAY MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WEST...LOW 70S EAST
WITH 60S IN BETWEEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

SOME INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN MAIN JET AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AREA...WITH SURFACE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BE TOWARDS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND CENTRAL
KANSAS...SO THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE EASTWARD. GFS SOUNDING FOR 18Z SUNDAY HAS THE SHALLOWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKEST CAP...BUT 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES MUCH
DRIER MID LAYER AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN CAP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON SURFACE
FORCING AND HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH. GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE
STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THAT COULD SPARK STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH 1000 J/KG
CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT THETA E VALUES AT THE SURFACE AND 850
MB.  RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED MORE WITH THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...SO OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE BEST IN
THAT AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT BEST...WITH THETA E
VALUES DROPPING SHARPLY BETWEEN THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS.

SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND STRONGER JET REGIONS ARE IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS.  SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RETURN TO THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARM AND DRY AIR.  HOT
TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL INDICATE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 100S POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...DRY AIR AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING TOWARDS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. DUE TO
STRONG CAP AND LOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SLIM.

GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY WILL
START THE WARM AND DRY PERIOD...WHICH WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

FOR KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT TAF ISSUANCE BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 15Z NOT EXPECTING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TERMINAL...FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF.

FOR KMCK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
ROUGHLY 15Z BEFORE SCOURING OUT SHORTLY AFTER. OTHERWISE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99