Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 291045
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
445 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of light rain showers (20%-30%) this evening across
  the northwest portion of the forecast area.

- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
  Sunday afternoon south of a line from Flagler and Burlington
  to Wallace and Leoti.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
  afternoon generally along and west of Highway 27.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Today-tonight...a cold front moves through the area today, lowering
high temperatures into the lower 60s to lower 70s (coolest in Yuma,
warmest in Tribune/Leoti). Breezy north winds are possible, mainly
along and north of I-70. Low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. There will also be a 20%-30% chance for light rain
showers this evening, mainly along/north of Interstate 70 and west
of Highway 25 as a weather disturbance moves in from the southwest
and northwest. Given a lack of CAPE and poor mid level lapse rates,
thunder is currently not expected. NAM is bringing in a saturated
boundary layer from the northeast overnight which if verifies, would
produce increasing low clouds and possibly some fog. As usual, GFS
and HRRR are less bullish on the low level moisture and historically
the NAM is occasionally right in these situations. So, something to
watch in the 12z/18z model cycles.

Saturday-Saturday night...light east and northeast winds in the
morning veer around to the east and southeast through the day. With
increasing pressure falls, breezy to perhaps windy south to
southeast winds are forecast (gusts up to 35 mph) generally west of
Highway 25. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s to
middle 60s, a good compromise between NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures and
the better performing variety of temperature guidance from the past
7 days. If the NAM verifies, the stratus mentioned above would put a
dent in the high temperature forecast by several degrees. Low
temperatures are projected to be in the lower 30s to around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024

The long-term will start off under a broad ridge that will allow for
the warming trend to continue through Sunday. High temperatures
Sunday will range from the upper 60s to low 80s. The trade off is
that RH values will drop into the mid to lower teens in the
south/southwestern CWA. Combined with southerly winds sustained
around 20 kts and gusting to 35+ kts in the afternoon hours,
critical fire weather conditions will be likely (55%) to occur for a
few hours. The locations that are expected to see critical fire
weather conditions are primarily west of Kansas Highway 25 and south
of Interstate 70. There is little (~10%) confidence that blowing
dust will be an issue based on current guidance, but isolated
blowing dust cannot be completely ruled out.

Overnight Sunday, low temperatures will be in the 30s. There is also
a chance (20%) for fog to form in the eastern/northeastern portions
of the CWA. Cross sections are supporting this by showing moist
easterly flow with a low-level inversion.

Sunday evening is when the "fun" really begins as an upper-level
deep trough begins to impact the area from the northwest. The GFS,
CMC-NH, and ECMWF are still showing different things in the mid and
upper-levels, but the track of the 850 mb low pressure system is
being highlighted to move close to the NE/KS border to the east
before taking a more northeasterly path. Overall chance of precipitation
is about 60% from this system in the northwestern portion of
the CWA. PoPs taper off farther to the south. The main P-Type is
still a bit of an uncertainty, but rain is looking more likely.
With the very warm temperatures on Sunday and strong southerly
inflow, we should have a surface layer remain above freezing.
Near the end of the event, gusty northerly winds will usher in
cold air leading to a bit of snow at the end. Refreeze could be
a major hazard with this system!

There are multiple ways that the thin melting layer may disappear
leading to snow or a wintry mix. The worst case scenario is the
entire low shifts south. If that were to happen, we could be looking
at a snow band setting up over the CWA. I am slightly leaning
towards the GFS`s guidance based on how it is positioning and
resolving the vertical continuity of the system, something the ECMWF
seems to be struggling with.

It is still uncertain how much precipitation will fall, but most of
it will likely fall near the northern portions of the CWA. Timing of
precipitation is also a big question. Precipitation could start as
early as 21Z Sunday or as late as 6-12Z Monday. Ending times are
even more of an unknown. Precipitation may cease as early as 21Z
Monday or as late as 9Z Tuesday.

High temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid 40s to mid
50s Monday, which adds some merit to the potential of a mostly rain
event. Overnight low temperatures are predicted to drop into the mid
20s Monday night.

After the trough and the precipitation clear the area on Tuesday, a
well defined ridge from the southwest will build in over the Tri-
State area. This will lead us to another warming trend that will
last through the rest of the period. By Friday, temperatures look to
rebound back into the 70s, maybe even 80s. Overnight lows will also
follow this trend with 30s and low 40s expected for Wednesday
through Friday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
A west wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the
northwest at similar speeds around 14z then become northerly
with gusts up to 20kts or so from 16z-18z. After 19z, winds are
forecast to be from the north to northeast at speeds up to
10kts. We`ll be watching for the possibility of stratus and
perhaps some fog with sub VFR conditions after about 08z as
boundary layer moisture possibly moves in from the northeast.

KMCK..VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
A light and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a
northwesterly direction at speeds under 10kts from 14z-15z. From
16z-21z, northerly winds gusting up to 25kts are anticipated.
After 22z, north to northeast winds of 10-12kts slowly decrease,
mainly after 06z. Similar to KGLD, we`ll be watching for the
possibility of stratus and perhaps some fog with sub VFR
conditions after about 06z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99


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