Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240534
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL
AS TEMP TREND FROM LAST FEW HOURS AROUND THE AREA. MOST OF THE CWA
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT DO
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE TO BEGIN BY 12Z MONDAY. LEADING EDGE OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN CWA ZONES A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED. LIMITED RADAR RETURNS
AT THIS TIME OVER IDAHO/MONTANA RIGHT NOW...SO HAVE NOT ADJUSTED
POP CHANCE FOR NOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
IN THE WEST...AND UP TO THE MID 30S IN THE EAST. THIS LOOKS ON
TRACK TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED
ON CURRENT CLOUDS/EXPECTED CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
SLOWLY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. EARLY MORNING
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY EXITED THE REGION BY NOON MST. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS. WINDS WERE NORTH AT 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH
FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
FROM THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS. A
LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO
MONTANA AND IDAHO...A DISTURBANCE THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR...A TREND THAT SHALL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE...THE THREAT FOR
BLOWING DUST WILL DECREASE AS WELL. LEFT A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 3 PM MST. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. PASSING CLOUD COVER SPREADS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEARS BY MORNING. COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE
POST-COLD FRONT AIRMASS.

TOMORROW...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LAPSE RATES STILL
INDICATE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. WITH WET
BULB TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS A LAYER OF
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS MAY PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DRY AIR IS ENOUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALOFT SO FEEL DRY AIR
MAY BE OVERCOME AT SOME LOCATIONS. REINSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS TOMORROW MORNING. COOL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO UPPER
40S...SIMILAR TO TODAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST AND SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MINOR SECONDARY PROBLEM OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT
STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO START OUT. THE NAM WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF AT THE SURFACE. MODELS
WERE A LITTLE COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN AND GFS DOING THE BEST.

MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. REFERRING
TO DISCUSSION ON CONVECTIVE SHOWER POTENTIAL. COOLING/STABILIZING
OF THE AIR MASS WILL START BEFORE IT GETS TO THIS PERIOD. WOULD
ANTICIPATE THAT NO MATTER WHAT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
THERE IS...IT SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE HIGH SILENT
POPS IN CASE THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES/LEFTOVER SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
THAT NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MODERATE MESOSCALE FORCING
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THETA-E LAPSE
RATES WOULD INDICATE NOT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
STRONG UPPER JET MOVING IN...THAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION.
THE GFS HAS A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED WITH THE ECMWF
NEXT IN LINE BUT STILL HAVING SOMEWHAT OF A DRY LOW LAYER. THE
NAM IS MUCH DRIER. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE. SPRINKLES
DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE BUT SINCE THIS IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT
WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES.WILL HAVE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS
RATHER THICK AND MAY NOT GET A LOT OF SUN. IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE CLOUD COVER...I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY. ALSO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SO STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR A POTENTIAL FIRE ISSUE.

THIS NIGHT IS WHEN THE FUN TEMPERATURE FORECAST STARTS. LOOK TO
HAVE DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING
IN WHICH COULD HAPPEN AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
AM THINKING THAT THE FRONT WILL BE COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER SO
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING STILL REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA. HOW WARM DOES IT GET IS THE BIG QUESTION. CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHEN TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT. A RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE VERY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF WHICH TO DO THIS.

SOME WAIT UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE DAY WHILE SOME TAKE IT THROUGH
EARLY WITH STILL OTHERS ONLY PART OF THE WAY THROUGH. DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO
STRONG LEE TROUGH TO HOLD UP THE ARRIVAL DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW...BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE FASTER RATHER THAN
SLOWER. THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A LITTLE FASTER AND COOLER THAN THE
12Z VERSION WITH THE ECMWF STILL THE FASTEST TO BRING THE COLD
FRONT IN. SO COOLED MAXES OFF A LITTLE. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN NOT ONLY
DETERMINISTIC BUT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO ABOUND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE GENERAL PATTERN ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN...CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO STAY DRY.

ALOFT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE A BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OF
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST. CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN AND WHAT CLUSTERING
THERE IS...AM THINKING THAT THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE WESTERN
POSITION OF GENERAL FEATURES WILL END UP BEING MORE RIGHT. THIS
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALTHOUGH TO HANG YOUR
HAT ON A PARTICULAR SOLUTION WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC.

CONSIDERING THE ABOVE REASONING AND EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD FROM THE CRH_INIT TO
TEMPERATURES FOR ALL PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
SCT-BKN080-150 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AT KMCK SCT040 BETWEEN 09Z-16Z.
WNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 16Z MONDAY...THEN 20-30KTS THRU 00Z
TUESDAY AND WINDS DROP DOWN TO 10-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER NOT ALLOW A LOT OF HEATING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAVING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS IN THERE...BELIEVE WE SHOULD NOT
REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES GETTING ANY
WARMER THERE WILL BE ISSUES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER



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