Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 020136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
736 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS MOVED INTO FAR
WESTERN PART OF CWA...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS. WHILE
ML/MU CAPE VALUES ARE WEAK TO MARGINAL...EFFECTIVE SHEER AND
DCAPE VALUES RAISE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT...PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN MEAN NW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL ORGANIZED COMPLEX
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO CWA AROUND SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PASSING CIRRUS AND SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S SHORTLY AFTER NOON
MDT. WINDS ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH AT
TIMES. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
KANSAS TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION
SLOWLY WEST. A COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EAST BEFORE DECAYING BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS
MAY SNEAK INTO EAST COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAGER CAPE...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF VERY DRY
AIR PRESENT NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE DRY AIR...SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE...SUGGESTIVE OF FAVORABLE DOWNBURST
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO REACH THE REGION
THIS EVENING...FEEL THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING. STORMS PROGRESS SOUTH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...REACHING THE TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
CONGEALING INTO AN MCS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHER MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY
IS ANTICIPATED. THE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...REACHING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE
THE SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX. THE MAIN THREAT MAY TURNOUT TO
BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.

ANOTHER THING TO WATCH TONIGHT IS THE CHANCE FOR FOG. A LOW PRESSURE
OVER EAST COLORADO SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT TONIGHT...ALLOWING EAST
WINDS TO PULL IN THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT...THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY EAST OF A HILL CITY KANSAS TO
BENKELMAN NEBRASKA LINE. DENSE FOG IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED AS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVING IN WOULD KEEP THE WINDS UP HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MIXING.

ONE LAST ITEM TO NOTE. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT 0-3 KM
HELICITY IS ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AROUND 200 M2/S2.
THIS SUGGESTS A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
RETROGRADES FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...ALLOWING THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUCKLES AND
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BACK TO A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BECOMES LESS PROMINENT AHEAD OF A LONGER
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA...A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WITH
MORE PROMINENT VORTICITY MAXIMUMS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING WHAT APPEARS
TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGHER
POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY IS PRETTY HIGH. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS THAT WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 90S ON SUNDAY. THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME WILL ALSO BE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG/MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO
COMPLICATES THIS AS OUTFLOW/PRECIP COULD MIX OUT LOW LEVELS AND
DECREASE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWER VIS. I OPTED TO KEEP VIS AT 6SM FOR
NOW AT KMCK WHERE BEST POTENTIAL IS FOR FOG.

OTHER PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS SEVERAL PERIOD OS THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. BEST CHANCE
THIS EVENING WILL BE AT KGLD...WHERE RADAR TRENDS INDICATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING WITHIN VICINITY OF TERMINAL WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE WITH A
BREAK OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO SW
NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND THEN SOUTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE KMCK THU
MORNING WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AT KGLD. THERE SHOULD BE
A BREAK AT KMCK BEFORE POSSIBLE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT/INCREASING
COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AT BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR


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