Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...cold temperatures
prevail under clear temps are ranging mainly in the
20s w/ a few colder locales are in the mid and upper teens.
Winds are light out of the WSW.

For today right on thru Wednesday night...models have the region
under nearly zonal H5/H7 flow...veering more SW late in the
period as a low digs into the Central Rockies. High pressure at
the surface along with a couple lee-side troughs that move off the
Front Range will combine with the zonal downslope H5/H7 flow to
give the area dry conditions along with above normal temperatures.

For temps...the area will see daytime highs in the 50s today and
on Tuesday...peaking into the lower 60s by Wednesday. These
numbers will be 10-20 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will
range in the 20s which will be 5-15 degrees above normal. High
temps on Wednesday will be within 5-7 degrees of record highs.

Please refer to the Climate Section below.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

Monday night-Tuesday night...may see a few mid and high level
clouds through the period otherwise dry with above normal low and
high temperatures. Low temperatures both nights generally in the
low to mid/upper 20s. High temperatures Tuesday in the low to mid

Wednesday-Wednesday night...upper flow shifts to the southwest late
in the day ahead of an upper level trough diving southeast into
Nevada and Utah. This trough deepens with a closed 500mb low over
much of Utah by 12z Thursday per GFS/GEM/ECMWF which is a little
slower compared to 24 hours ago. 850mb temperatures warm into the 9C
to 13C range which is warmer compared to 24 hours ago. This would
support high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. For the
overnight hours high clouds increase in coverage from the northwest
with winds veering around to the north and northwest across the
western 1/2 of the area by sunrise as the cold front approaches.
Compared to 24 hours ago the trend for this model cycle is to slow
the arrival of the cold front and precipitation. Low temperatures in
the low to upper 20s.

Thursday...todays GFS/ECMWF continue to advertise breezy north winds
during the day as a cold front moves through. For the nighttime
hours 10 to 20 mph winds expected. The ECMWF is several degrees
colder at 850mb compared to the GFS which limits any confidence in
any one solution. Todays MEX guidance which is based off the GFS is
considerably warmer compared to yesterday as well. The 12z GEFS
ensemble 2m temperature shows readings somewhat near the official
forecast ranging from the low 30s northwest to around 40 far south
for highs. Low temperatures generally in the 10 to 15 degree range.
Regarding precipitation chances, through 18z there is a large mid
level dry slot over the area oriented northeast to southwest with
some moisture below 700mb confined to the far north through
northwest and western parts of the area. Current forecast of slight
chance to low chance pops for this area may be overdone, especially
if the GFS were to be used. Regardless, only a light mix of rain
and/or snow is expected. For the afternoon the closed upper low is
forecast to reach the four corners area with the bulk of the better
850-500mb moisture remaining generally north of the interstate. Will
continue with slight chance to low chance pops for light snow. For
the overnight hours the closed low weakens while its parent upper
trough and axis of 850-500mb moisture move through. This will
support at least slight chance to low chance pops for light snow
across nearly the entire area.

Friday...light snow chances end in the morning from west to east as
the trough moves away from the area. Under a mostly to partly sunny
sky high temperatures should reach the low to mid 30s. The chance
for light snow returns to the northwest 1/3 or so of the area
overnight as another surge of moisture moves in ahead of another
longwave trough within a larger trough covering much of the western
states into the southern plains. Low temperatures again in the 10 to
15 degree range.

Saturday...chance for light snow expands across all of the forecast
area through the period as plentiful moisture in the 850-700mb
column resides over the area. The large area of moisture in the 850-
700mb layer is also in the favorable snow growth zone temperature
wise which could support a little higher amounts and precipitation
chances in later forecasts. A reinforcing shot of colder air moves
in with a 10 to 20 mph wind during the day. 850mb temperatures of
-10C to -15C expected with current forecast highs in the low to mid
20s. This may be on the warm side even when considering full mixing
at 850mb. Low temperatures look to range from around 5F to 12F
across the area. area of 850-500mb moisture and precipitation chances
area generally along and north of the interstate. 850mb temperatures
remain similar to Saturdays numbers if not a tad colder and for that
wont change current forecast of upper teens to mid 20s.

Looking out beyond day 7 the GFS would support some light snow
Christmas eve with both GFS and ECMWF showing dry conditions for
Christmas day. Not much in the way of wind but it will remain cold
per forecast 850mb temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1013 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

VFR conditions and light southwest winds below 10kt will continue
at KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.


Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Wednesday, December

Goodland KS    73/1981
McCook NE      68/2003
Burlington CO  68/1981
Hill City KS   70/1941
Colby KS       73/1894
Tribune KS     77/1894
Yuma CO        69/1981




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