Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS
WERE EJECTING OUT OF IT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FETCH OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN WHICH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE
ABLE TO INTERACT WITH.

THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT`S
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.  OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  INSTABILITIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE UP TO 1000J/KG.  WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.  ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG WILL CONTINUE FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING.

DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND ALLOWING THE GROUND TO
WARM SOME.  BEHIND THE WARM FRONT A DRY LINE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
IT BY MID AFTERNOON.  EXPECT STORMS TO INITIALLY FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE.  EAST OF THE DRY LINE MORE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO THE WEAKER LIFT

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES CAUSING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DRY LINE TO
DEEPEN FURTHER.  EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO PEAK BY EARLY EVENING OVER
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO NEAR THE DRY LINE...WITH COVERAGE DECLINING TO
THE EAST AS THE LIFT BECOMES WEAKER.  THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.  WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE AREA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS PREDICTED THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN PREVENTING THE GROUND FROM WARMING AND MIXED LAYER CAPES FROM
RISING.  WAS INITIALLY CONFIDENT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...BUT LATEST 2 RUNS OF MODEL DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE WARM FRONT NOT MOVING AS FAR
NORTH/EAST AS PREDICTED FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER IF THE
WARM FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50KTS.  LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 DUE TO 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS...0-1KM HELICITY CLOSE TO 100M2/S2 AND
STORMS TRAINING NEAR THE DRY LINE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST.  DUE TO THE RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST
NIGHT OVER THIS AREA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3-6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AND MORE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUNDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE
TROUGH AXIS OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA.  LIFT FROM THE TROUGH AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH A DRY LINE
OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 25 AND HIGHWAY 83.
COULD SEE SOME SEVERE T-STORMS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 24 WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BE 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS EAST OF THE DRY LINE.  WITH STORM MOTION
CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE N-S DRY LINE...LOCATIONS NEAR THE DRY
LINE COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY LATE EVENING.
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE DRY LINE BEING
EAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY DUE TO THE
SAME AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...A CLOSED LOW SITS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC NW LOW. THE GFS HAS THE
LOW REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND A
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH.

BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE SHORTWAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST
MIDWEEK. THIS ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AM VERY
CONFIDENT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE MORNING. HOWEVER AFTER THAT GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED AS TO WHETHER
THE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR REMAIN IFR. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
FAVOR CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SO
HAVE DECIDED TO GO THAT DIRECTION...WITH A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING FOR CEILINGS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CEILINGS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR.
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

REGARDING STORMS FOR THE SITES TODAY...KGLD SHOULD BE TOO FAR
NORTH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING AND TOO FAR
SOUTH/EAST FOR THE STORMS LATER TODAY. KMCK HOWEVER MAY BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KSZ001.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090-091.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/JBH
AVIATION...JTL


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