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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182332
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is likely Friday night and Saturday morning for
  areas north of Interstate 70 in Colorado and north of
  Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska.
  An inch or two of wet snow will be possible in those areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow is in place across the central CONUS with both the
polar and subtropical jets active. Tonight, will see another
weak wave move through bringing a chance for very light rain or
snow showers to northeast Colorado and eastward along the
Kansas and Nebraska border area. Similar to last night,
measurable precipitation and impacts will be minimal. Low
temperatures will be in the 30s. The very light precipitation
chances will linger in the same area through the day Friday with
mostly cloudy skies north of the Interstate but some sun
possible in the afternoon south. High temperatures will range
from the lower 50s where clouds persist in the north to the
lower 60s to the south. Friday night, will see increasing
chances for rain and snow with some phasing of disturbances in
the northern and southern streams combined with upslope flow at
the surface. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow by
around 06z in northeast Colorado and about as far east as
Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska during the overnight hours and
into Saturday morning. Snow amounts continue to increase and
now expecting 1 to 2 inches in those areas by Saturday morning.
Rain and snow chances will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon
then ending Saturday night. Temperatures will be much below
normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

On Sunday will get a break from the precipitation with an upper
ridge axis moving through. Highs will recover to the 60s to near
70 in northeast Colorado. Another weak wave will move through
Sunday night as the ridge moves out, with a chance for light
rain showers north of Interstate 70. It will also be breezy
Sunday night as a southerly low level jet develops. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s.

For Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will transitioning back to
northwest flow ahead of a ridge building over the Rockies on
Tuesday. Models show some light showers/isolated thunderstorms
both days, but confidence is rather low. Instability is
minimal on Monday afternoon and near zero on Tuesday. There does
appear to be a weak wave on Monday in the zonal flow as well as
a cold front early in the day, which may trigger a few showers
or isolated storms, but hard to find anything on Tuesday with
the building ridge. Highs will be in the 70s on Monday then 60s
on Tuesday behind the weak front. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s.

On Wednesday, will transition to a southwesterly flow aloft
ahead of the next trough digging into the Desert Southwest.
Energy ejecting ahead of that system across the plains will
result in chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening. There is a sliver of instability
during the afternoon currently forecast to be along the
Colorado and Kansas border area, with around 500 j/kg of SBCAPE
and deep layer shear of around 40 kts, suggesting a possible low
end severe risk. It is still several days out and confidence in
those kind of details is lacking at this point. High
temperatures will bounce back into the 70s and lows will be in
the 40s.

On Thursday, the western trough is forecast to lift into the
central plains and across the area. Depending on where the
associated surface features end up, there should be a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front
and/or dry line, as well as chance for wraparound showers and
isolated thunderstorms further west. However, there is low
confidence seven days out on where these features might ultimately
reside. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR expected to prevail over both KGLD and KMCK through the 00Z TAF
period. Northerly winds will become light and variable as they
become more southerly around sunrise Friday morning. Tomorrow
afternoon, winds will become easterly to northeasterly at 5-15
kts. Mid clouds will be slow to erode.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK