Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KMTR 010543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT MONDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTED IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE COAST WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE FELT AS A RESULT OF THE TYPICAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG THE COAST AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HOWEVER A ROBUST 4.7 MB GRADIENT FROM
ACV-SFO WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STRATUS THAT FORMS PATCHY IN NATURE.
DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING AS
A TROUGH OFF THE COAST DEEPENS AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
COAST IN TURN DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER.

SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY NOON.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM OUR SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK SHOULD CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT...LIMITING COASTAL CLOUDS AND ENDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:37 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH SOME INLAND INTRUSION IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. SKIES CLEAR BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TUESDAY...BUT
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL PICK UP IN STRENGTH BY AFTERNOON
LIKELY CAUSING THE COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG TO MOVE BACK INLAND
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. TEMPO MVFR CIG 10Z-14Z TUE MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:09 PM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.