Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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866
FXUS66 KMTR 310020
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
520 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summertime weather conditions will persist
through the weekend with cool temperatures, low clouds and patchy
fog near the coast. Meanwhile, above average temperatures and dry
weather conditions will continue inland. A gradual cooling trend
is forecast for inland areas over the next few days as an upper
level trough develops north of the region. Smokey conditions will
also continue over the Monterey Bay Area northward into the South
Bay as a result of the Soberanes Fire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 1:00 PM PDT Saturday...Temperatures early
this afternoon are running generally a few degrees cooler compared
to 24 hours ago. This is in part to a better defined marine layer
that is between 1000 and 1200 feet in depth as well as weakening
high pressure aloft. Meanwhile, smoke from the Soberanes Fire
continues to be transported northward over the Monterey Bay Region
and up into portions of the South and East Bay as winds off the
surface remain southerly. This will continue to produce areas of
smoke and haze over a good portion of the region through at least
the weekend.

Expecting the marine layer to deepen slightly through the remainder
of the weekend as a long-wave trough pushes inland to our north. As
temperatures aloft cool further, do expect an inland cooling trend
to continue Sunday into Monday. In addition, late night and morning
low clouds will spread a bit further inland through at least Monday.
Also cannot rule out patchy fog each morning with the potential for
some light drizzle/mist.

Dry weather conditions and temperatures near seasonal averages can
then be expected for much of next week as a series of dry mid/upper
level troughs impact the West Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 5:20 PM PDT Saturday...VFR conditions are
currently being reported around the forecast area this afternoon
with the exception of KSNS which is beginning impacted by low
clouds. The Fort Ord profiler is indicating a marine layer with a
depth of 1500 feet, light onshore flow will push this marine air
inland overnight bringing low clouds to coastal locations
overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
about 1100Z Sunday morning. First guess at Sunday morning burn
off is 1700Z. Westerly winds are expected to reach 15 kt gusting
to 22 kt. Winds will slowly decrease this evening become light
overnight.

Confidence is high.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Smokey conditions are being reported at
KMRY and KSNS this evening. Stratus has already moved into the
KSNS terminals and is expected to impact KMRY by around 0200Z.
First guess at Sunday morning burnoff is 1730Z at KSNS and 1900Z
at KMRY.

Confidence is moderate.

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:38 PM PDT Saturday...Generally light split
winds Today with locally stronger winds through the northern San
Francisco Bay and extreme northern outer waters. A long period
southerly swell as a part of a mixed swell will move through the
waters through the next few days.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: DRP


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