Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201119 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
619 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FROM 6 TO 9
KNOTS. CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS TRANSITING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE MAY SNEAK INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE NRN BRANCH WAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TOWARDS ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS DESCRIBED
BELOW.

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NECESSARY IN THAT DEPARTMENT. RAIN CHANCES LOOKED GOOD AS
WELL BUT DID SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS JUST A TAD TO COME IN
LINE WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





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