Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 280809
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
308 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
NOT A LOT OF VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING WITH MODELS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH EACH OTHER AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST/GRIDS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN TACT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND THE WITH EXPECTED
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CREST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND NO HEAT RELATED HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN ONLY ISOLATED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST STARTING ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS
APPROACH...POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OF LATE.

BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS UPPER ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN SPITE OF THE TROUGH
ITSELF DAMPENING OUT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING ON
SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAINS ELEVATED AND CHANNELED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT IS NOW LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST.

MOISTURE FEED DOES DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
MINIMAL POPS WILL BE ADDED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
ZONAL IN NATURE...THOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN TIER STATES MON AND TUE. WITH A LACK OF AMPLITUDE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THUS LEADING TO CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT
SAID...THERE IS A CAVEAT TO THIS DISCUSSION THUS FAR AND THAT IS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SRN MISSOURI OR
POSSIBLY NE ARKANSAS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY IT WILL MAKE IT TOO FAR
INTO THE STATE AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SUCH...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR ONLY PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY END UP AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN WHILE
ELSEWHERE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  70  92  72 /  10  10  30  40
CAMDEN AR         95  73  92  72 /  10  20  30  40
HARRISON AR       91  67  87  68 /  10  20  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  72  90  72 /  10  20  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  92  73 /  10  10  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  92  73 /  10  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      92  71  89  71 /  10  20  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  69  90  71 /  10  20  40  50
NEWPORT AR        94  69  91  70 /  10  10  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     95  71  92  72 /  10  10  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  71  90  71 /  10  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         94  70  91  71 /  10  10  30  40
STUTTGART AR      94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64




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