Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 052142 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
442 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS WERE LIGHTER THAN SEEN ON WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT AS
TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND TEMPS
WILL WARM JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY SAT...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS SRLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION FROM
THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO A LESS BLOCKY AND SOMEWHAT
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. WHILE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
BEFORE IT IS PUSHED OFF/SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AT LEAST LOW END POPS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57



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