Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST SECTION. SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THIS FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  73  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR        100  75  98  71 /  10  10  30  10
HARRISON AR       93  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    99  77  96  72 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      98  73  96  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  70  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        96  73  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  69 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         98  73  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      97  74  91  68 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.


HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FULTON-IZARD-STONE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51



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