Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56




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