Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 052345
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
PAST HOUR WITH THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM KBPK. VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES. DO EXPECT THERE
TO BE SOME LIGHT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DIP BELOW 3SM WITH WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO GO COMPLETELY CALM. OTHERWISE ONLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

FORECAST ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EXPECTED FRONTAL SYSTEM..TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY..BEFORE STALLING NEAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND SEVERAL
INSTANCES OF FOCUSED MID LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD PROMOTE
CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE IN A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL JUST TOUCH
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. WILL STILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH
A RETURN OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CAN NEVER BE EXCLUDED...THE COVERAGE WILL BE TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
FOR EARLY TO MID JULY AND TRENDED TOWARDS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  90  75  87 /  40  30  30  40
CAMDEN AR         74  92  75  91 /  40  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       70  87  72  82 /  40  20  30  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  90  74  88 /  40  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  91  75  90 /  40  20  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     73  92  75  91 /  40  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  89  74  86 /  40  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  89  73  84 /  40  30  30  60
NEWPORT AR        72  90  74  88 /  40  30  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     73  91  74  90 /  40  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  91  74  87 /  40  30  30  40
SEARCY AR         72  90  73  89 /  40  20  20  40
STUTTGART AR      72  91  73  90 /  40  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.