Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 281951
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
251 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

18Z surface data indicated high pressure over Minnesota with a
frontal boundary from southern Kansas into southern Missouri. Dew
points were in the 40s and 50s from the Great Lakes into the
northern Plains with 60s and higher from the Ohio valley into the
central Plains on south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen from late this afternoon
through sunrise Wednesday. The light winds, dry air, and mainly
clear skies should allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid
50s tonight. The possibility does exist for some upper 40s in the
favored cool valleys.

No record lows are expected tonight but favorable cold air drainage
at Moline may allow the low to get close to the record. Refer to the
climate section below for the June 29th record lows.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Wednesday morning across the
area. Wednesday afternoon a weak upper level disturbance will move
across Iowa and into northern Missouri. Lift from this disturbance
combined with a moisture gradient aloft might be enough to allow
some isolated convection to develop in the western quarter of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Forecast focus on chance of thunderstorms mainly Thursday and
Thursday night with low confidence regarding convection later in the
extended period.

Wednesday night through Thursday night:  Chances for thunderstorms
continue in this time frame, as a reinforcing cold front arrives.
Based on consensus models the best chances look to be Thursday and
Thursday evening. Depending on the timing of the front a few strong
storms are possible especially during the heating of the day. The
threat of severe storms seems low at this time but this could
change. Humidity levels will be creeping up ahead of the front with
dewpoints pushing into the 60s.

Friday through Saturday: Northwest flow aloft and Canadian high
pressure will bring delightful early July weather to the area. There
will be clear to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday: Upper flow becomes more zonal during this
period allowing for warmer temperatures and chances for
thunderstorms. However, low confidence as models are struggling with
the timing and location of possible MCS`s. Confidence is higher in
regard to temperatures with highs pushing well into the 80s
and lows well in the 60s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

VFR conditions will be seen through 18z/29 as high pressure
builds into the Midwest. There may be brief incursions of MVFR
cigs at KDBQ until cigs raise above 3kt AGL.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Record Lows for June 29...

Moline.........50 in 1923
Cedar Rapids...47 in 1929
Dubuque........47 in 1951
Burlington.....50 in 1950

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08


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