Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 040431
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE COMMON DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT HAZE/SMOKE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...ALLOWING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH TO
BE AN IMPACT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. FOR
THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY...EXPECT MORE HAZE WITH SOME AFTERNOON
CU DEVELOPING. THE HAZE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...DESPITE THE MODERATING AIRMASS. BASED ON THIS
AFTERNOONS TEMPS...A 2 TO 4 DEGREE BUMP YIELDS HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 81 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERVIEW...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. EXPECT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PRECEDING THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL HUMID WEATHER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RESULTING IN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

SUNDAY...SEASONAL WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CONSENSUS BECAUSE DAYTIME MIXING IN
S/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH NEARLY FULL SOLAR INSOLATION
SHOULD BUMP MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING BL MIXING UP TO 850MB WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR 16-
18 C...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD REACH TO 576 DAM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
KEEP ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI IS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE REMNANT SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN FROM CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPED IN THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE FAR EAST.

HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON AVG WILL SUPPORT
MODERATELY HIGH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SO FAR TO THE NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MOSTLY UNDER 30 KTS...PRECLUDING WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL. SIMPLY
BASED ON THE THERMODYNAMICS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...PWATS POTENTIALLY NEAR 2 INCHES...OR 1.5-
2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...MEANS
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS SFC HIGH IS
IN CONTROL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS NEAR 60 F...MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS...AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SFC-850MB WINDS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SFC DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME BUT OVERALL THREAT FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES OF A MILKY
COMPLEXION FROM CANADIAN WILD FIRES SMOKE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD DOMINATES. SOME LIGHT AVIATION
FOG POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS



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