Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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286
FXUS63 KDVN 011957
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
257 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Vertically stacked low pressure over Indiana this morning will
lift northeast through the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The region should see a gradual decrease in moisture through the
period as the low to the east moves away from the region. The
showers over the CWA this afternoon are being driven in part by
heating and should dissipate by early evening. Showers over the
extreme east have more upper support and may last a while longer.
Late tonight lingering low level moisture in the vicinity of an
area of weak convergence may support fog development across the
southern third of the CWA. Cloud cover tonight will help keep mins
in the 50s. For for Sunday, highs should be about a category
warmer than today. The potential for some more sun by the
afternoon should help temperatures climb in to the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Forecast focus on temperatures above normal through the middle of
next week then trending below normal. Chance of thunderstorms about
mid week.

Sunday night through Wednesday night: A warming trend ahead of a
deep upper level trough slowly moving out of the Rockies. Highs will
be pushing well into the 70s to near 80. A cold front will arrive
about Wednesday with the potential for strong storms but this will
depend on amount of instability. The front stalls in MO and quickly
returns as a warm front with more storms Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday: An even stronger upper level trough/cold
front approaches from the west Thursday and Thursday night
triggering more thunderstorms. The front then sweeps across the cwa
by Friday bringing a much cooler and drier airmass. Highs by
Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s.

Caveat: The forecast for the middle and end of the week is
complicated by the eventual strength and track of Hurricane
"Matthew".  Therefore, we have low confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Ohio Valley upper low is forecast to move NNE to Lake Erie during
the period. Little change in the over all flow pattern will keep
light n to ne low level winds in place and abundant low level
moisture. This should keep low clouds in place through Sunday
morning. Expect to see some minor improvement this afternoon and
early evening with day time heating, then cigs should settle back
to ifr again overnight. Visibilities will also improve some this
afternoon, then diminish again tonight. An area of weak low level
convergence is progged to set up across southern iowa tonight, if
this occurs, lifr conditions will be possible at kbrl.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

For the Wapsipinicon, Cedar and Iowa Rivers...

Flood crest is now near Dewitt, where the Wapsipinicon appears to be
steady near 13.8 feet. The crest on the Iowa River has pushed
downstream of Oakville. Stages continue to fall further upstream
along the eastern Iowa tributary rivers, with the exception of the
Iowa River at Marengo, where routed flow from upstream has recently
pushed it into moderate flooding. The Cedar River at Cedar Rapids is
expected to fall below flood stage this Sunday morning.

Along the Mississippi...only minor adjustments made to forecasts
with minor to major flooding continuing at most forecast points.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...DLF
HYDROLOGY...Haase



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