Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 010828
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK TROF RAN
FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 30S FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE. LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS ARE OVER PUTNAM AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF BUREAU
COUNTIES.

QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS CONTINUE TO
EVAPORATE AS THEY HIT THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. THE DRY GROUND
SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL SWING WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY PLUMMET THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL MIGRATE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID SOUTH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE LOW LEVELS DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SW FLOW
ABOVE 900 MB...LIKELY AIDED BY THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE-
LIMITING HIGH CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER AND MID 50S SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SURFACE WINDS AT LEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH SUNDAY
NIGHT...HOLDING MINS TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIPITATION EVENT...LOOKING AT THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING ALONG THE
ADVANCING RIDGE OF MOISTURE TO REQUIRE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
AXIS OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE...SEEN BOTH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR THIS PERIOD...SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS
AND POSSIBLY THE CATEGORICAL POPS AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POOR COVERAGE AND WEAK PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
OF THE PAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND CAP THEM
OFF AT 74 PERCENT FOR THIS EVENT THAT IS STILL BEYOND DAY 3 IN THE
FORECAST. QPF VALUES OF A QUARTER TO OVER A HALF INCH LOOK LIKELY
FOR THE EVENT IN THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SET UP...WHERE PW VALUES
ARE SHOWN AS HIGH AS 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES IN THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM
LIFT. WHILE RAIN CHANCES CARRY OVER INTO TUESDAY...THESE MAY BE
EVENTUALLY BE LOWERED OR CONFINED TO THE MORNING...FOLLOWING THE
TRENDS OF THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DRIVEN
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT COMPARATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S.
THE REST OF THE WEEK HAS HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH THE REGION IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SHOWN AROUND WED NIGHT TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
SURFACE LOW WERE TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT NORTH
BREEZE...BECOMING EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






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