Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 241159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

982 MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY STILL DEEPENING AND ROLLING UP ACRS LOWER
MI...WITH WESTERN SIDE DEF ZONE PRECIP SWATHS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST TO THE MS RVR. WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING AS IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT STRONG/NEAR ADVISORY WINDS COMPLICATING
MATTERS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING...EXCEPT AFTER COORDINATING WITH
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OFFICES...WILL EXTEND THE END TIME OF THE
EASTERN GROUP TO 06Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT OF SECONDARY WRAP AROUND DEF
ZONE SNOWS INDUCED BY SECONDARY WESTERN GRT LKS ORBITING LOW/UPPER
TROF...AND ONGOING BRISK WINDS ROTATING DOWN OUT OF WI AND ACRS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THE SOUTH HALF OF THIS ADVISORY GROUP/INCLUDING THE I80
CORRIDOR/ WILL STILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER AT THE
ORIGINAL 03Z END TIME. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL GET MOST OF
IT/S ACCUMS FROM NOW THOUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY JUST HAVE
FLURRIES THEN IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES STILL SUPPORT RE-STRENGTHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 20-32 MPH
SUSTAINED...AND GUSTS AT LEAST INTO THE 40-43 MPH RANGE. WIND TO COME
DOWN TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME
DRIFTING AND LOW BASED BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS THAT CAN GET 2-3 INCHES.
SOME CONCERN THAT WARMED UP AND WET GROUND WILL EAT AWAY AT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TOTALS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO OCCUR AT
12Z-13Z...WITH STEADY TO SLOW FALL TRENDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA...TO AROUND 20/THE LOW 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

OVERALL...GENERAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS CURRENT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MON MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO NEAR
AN INCH SOUTH OF I80...1-2 INCHES FROM I80 UP TO MANCHESTER IA...
CLINTON AND STERLING IL. TO THE NORTH OF THAT LINE...2-3 INCHES UP
THROUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN IA INTO NW IL. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACRS
NORTHERN JO DAVIESS AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES WHERE SOME 3+ INCH
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED MONDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LINGERING MINOR DIFFERENCES IN QPF
PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. GENERAL 1 TO PERHAPS 2 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO BOOST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SUBSTANTIAL...THE QUICK SHOT OF SNOW DURING PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD
NOT BE WELCOME.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A COLD AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. BASED ON THE PERSISTENT ECMWF...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING
TEMPS LATE WEEK...INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER ON
SUNDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION ONGOING WITH MAINLY SNOW NOW AT OR
APPROACHING THE TERMINALS. STRONG WESTERLY SFC WINDS OF 20-30 KTS
AND EVEN STRONGER ALOFT MAKING FOR TURBULENT LLVLS TODAY...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH FALLING MODERATE SNOW BANDS WILL MAKE FOR
PERIODS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15-16Z THIS MORNING. THEN
SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH LIGHTER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS AND RISING
CIGS TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN STORM
CENTER SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE GRT LKS...A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF WI AND DOWN ACRS AT LEAST
THE DBQ AND CID TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH CONTINUING BRISK WEST SFC WINDS OF
15-25KTS MAY COMBINE FOR A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP AGAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING TO VFR POSSIBLE AT MLI
AND ESPECIALLY BRL BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12





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