Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 271951
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
251 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

18Z surface data indicates a weak front/boundary running from
southern Lake Michigan to the IA/MO border. Dew points were mainly
in the 60s and 70s ahead of the front. Dew points in the 50s were
across the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Mainly quiet and less humid conditions will be seen across the area
from late afternoon through Tuesday. Temperatures should average
slightly below normal.

The one caveat is a weak area of forcing associated with a weak
upper level disturbance moving across northern Missouri late this
afternoon and evening. The proximity of the frontal boundary may
provide just enough lift to possibly generate an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in Scotland county prior to sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Forecast focus on a mainly dry period with below normal temperatures
then trending towards normal by the 4th of July.

The remainder of this week: Northwest flow aloft will keep our
temperatures and humidity levels on the comfortable side. Highs will
be mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s to lower
60s. We did raise maximum temperatures a couple of degrees in
portions of our southern cwa where the D1 (moderate) drought exists.
Models still vary with the timing of a cold front in the Wednesday
night through Thursday night time frame. The ECMWF is the weakest of
the models in regards to QPF, as the better forcing will be located
north of the cwa. For now isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
accompany the front (depending on timing) but shear looks weak and
PWAT`s are only in the 1 to 1.3 inch range.

This weekend and the 4th of July:  the upper level trough in the
northeast part of the nation gradually shifts eastward allowing for
heights to rise. By early next week we get more into a zonal flow.
This will gradually push highs into the 80s but humidity levels
should still be tolerable.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/29 as high pressure builds
into the Midwest.


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...08



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