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000
FXUS63 KDVN 200531
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AND TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL INCREASE DEEP SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AN AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS ALSO
SIGNAL IMPENDING DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A SOMEWHAT SHORTENED DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FOCUS FOR BOTH SHORT TERM INTO THE EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY BISECTING IA JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM NE MO...ADJACENT W
CENTRAL IL NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IA SIGNALS AN AREA OF
DESTABILIZATION IN THE CLEARING AND WAKE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SW
WI. SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGER MCS...EXITING TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST...FOLLOWING SYNOPTIC FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE FOCUS AND
TRIGGER FOR STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CENTERED ON A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT
RISK IN PLACE FOR DAY 2.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ALTHOUGH NOT AS IDEAL AS TODAY OR MONDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE AREA FOR DAY
3. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL TREND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOWARD
MORE STABLE...NOT AS WARM...AND DRIER WEATHER LATE WEEK AS THE
PLAINS LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE MOVES OUT BY
NEXT WEEKEND AND THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONT THAT MAY BRING RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FIRST LINE OF TSRA IS MOVING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THE NEXT LINE IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI AND
SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF IOWA/ILLINOIS THROUGH 12Z/20. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH TSRA WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 12Z/20 WITH NEW CONVECTION
DVLPG AFT 18Z/20. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH TSRA AFT 18Z/20.                     ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08