Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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584
FXUS63 KDVN 220855
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
355 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Warm front was arced across the SW half of the forecast area with
a heavy rain, and occasionally severe, MCS on-going early this
morning from N central IA across SE IA into north central IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Very busy this morning with multiple challenges in the short
term. Discussion is thus concise and centered on the hazards today
and tonight.

Flash Flooding: Will continue the flash flood watch over the
northern half of the forecast until its current expiration time
of 15z. The current MCS, already producing very heavy rainfall and
likely flash flooding over portions of eastern IA, and its
nocturnal low level jet feed of high thetae should dissipate and
transition out of the area this morning, diminishing the threat of
training storms and excessive rainfall. Additional storms today
will have heavy rainfall rates, but will likely be more
progressive in a severe mode.

Severe weather: In the near term, the greatest severe potential
in the next few hours will be severe winds with the bowing storms
in SE IA into W central IL and then will have to watch closely the
storm at the back NW end of the line which will move into east
central IA in the CID and IOW for another round of possible very
heavy rain and possible damaging winds 6 to 7 am. Later today, SPC
has extended the moderate risk are further NW into NE IL and a
small part of far eastern IA near DBQ, while the enhanced area
remains over all but the far south. Somewhat concerned that the
warm front may remain further south and SW than models depict and
the critical triple point with the area of low pressure advancing
SE out of SD will move through east central IA or possibly SE IA
into west central IL this afternoon. Instability, shear and low
level wind profiles will favor supercells along and north of the
warm front and especially ahead of the surface low this afternoon,
with the complex evolving into a more linear severe complex
further east in the late afternoon.

Heat: Temperatures are likely to warm well into the 90s in the
warm sector of SE IA and W central IL this afternoon. With
dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values are likely to reach 100 to
possibly 105 and have thus issued a heat advisory for SE IA, NE MO
and W central IL from around noon to 7 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Quieter weather and temperatures closer to mid June normals
follows for late week, then heat and humidity returns for the
weekend along with thunderstorm chances as another frontal system
rolls through the area. Low pops and continued above normal
temperatures follow for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

A slow moving cluster of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will
affect the terminals overnight. There will likely be a break from
mid to late morning before a wave of low pressure triggers
scattered thunderstorms, which may be severe with damaging wind,
large hail and isolated tornadoes in the afternoon. With low
confidence on the timing and track of these storms, this has been
handled with prob30 groups. Wind directions will be largely
dependent on where the warm front sets up. Have kept ceilings and
visibilities prevailing VFR throughout. The system should exit
Wednesday evening, leaving a light NW flow and VFR conditions.


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Benton-
     Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jackson-
     Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Washington.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee-Van Buren.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Bureau-
     Carroll-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-
     Stephenson-Whiteside.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     Hancock-Henderson-McDonough-Warren.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...Sheets



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