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000
FXUS63 KDVN 131459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
959 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO
GO AROUND. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAITING IN THE WINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
850 MB DEW POINTS OF AT LEAST 14C AND AS HIGH AS 18C AT KMAF IN
WEST TX. OTHERWISE WE WILL ENJOY THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
MOST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM IS THANKFULLY WELL EAST OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND IN ITS WAKE WE ARE LEFT WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SKIES ARE CLEAR
OTHERWISE THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST...AS UPPER RIDGING IS SPREADING
EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

POPS TODAY WILL BE ZERO.  3 CHEERS FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ARE HEARD AS WE SET UP A FULL 24 PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER.  AFTER THE
EARLY STRATUS BAND CLEARS OUT OF THE SOUTH...THE SKIES TODAY SHOULD
ONLY DEAL WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND WISPY CIRRUS. OUR
ONLY HAZARD WILL BE SUNBURN AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTH. BEST OF ALL...CONSIDERING THIS IS MID
JUNE...OUR DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60
TODAY...WITH A PLEASANT BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH...GUSTING TO 20.
TONIGHT...UNDER A THIN VEIL OF INCREASING CIRRUS AND LIGHT EAST
WINDS...LOWS SHOULD DIP TO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. AS
NOTED IN THE EXTENDED...THIS PLEASANT RESPITE FROM ACTIVE SUMMER
STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ENJOY IT IF YOU CAN.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ASSESSING THE LATEST RUN 00Z MODELS...WESTERN
GRT LKS LLVL HIGH TO HAND ON WHILE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS
BROADENS SOME AND SHIFTS IT/S AXIS EASTWARD. A LOW CHANCE FOR
DECAYING SHOWERS INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST FILTERING THE
INSOLATION AT TIMES. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE 70S. THTA-E
RICH AIRMASS RELOADS ACRS THE PLAINS...WITH RIDGE-RIDING WAVE AND
LLJ COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN MCS NORTH OF BUILDING CAP/WARM WEDGE
ALOFT MOST LIKELY ACRS EASTERN NEB INTO SW MN AND FAR WESTERN IA
FRI EVENING. IT APPEARS LIKELY THIS ACTIVITY TO GET FED EASTWARD ACRS
IA INTO THE DVN CWA LATER THAT NIGHT ON CONVERGENT NOSE OF NOCTURNAL
LLJ AND UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INDUCED BY TYPE OF UPPER JET
COUPLET COMPLEX ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH POPS FOR ELEVATED MCS
COMING ACRS INTO SAT MORNING...WITH HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS BY 12Z SAT. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS MORE STRENGTH THAN
CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL OR
A WET MICROBURST FROM A SHALLOW ROOTED ELEVATED STORM...BUT THE
INCOMING LOW TO MID LEVEL SATURATION PROCESS MAY LIMIT THAT THREAT.
SAT MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/STORM REMNANTS FROM
FRI NIGHT GET LAYED OUT ACRS THE CWA. THESE LINGERING BOUNDARIES
TO ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR RENEWED STORMS DEVELOPMENT LATE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE-DAMPENING WAVE TRIES TO ROLL
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SVR STORMS WITH SFC
ROOTED POTENTIAL SAT EVENING IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO BUILD
UP DURING DAYTIME HEATING AND PRIME CAP AXIS SHUNTED MORE TO THE
SOUTH. OR THE CAP MAY MIGRATE MORE THIS WAY AND PLACE THE NEW MCS
TRACK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO
FIGURE OUT WITH ALL THE CONVECTIVE VARIABLES IN PLAY ON SAT. HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING STILL MAY BE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
THREAT SAT NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRIMING/RAIN WE GET FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH TEMPS SAT A CHALLENGE WITH THE MANY
VARIABLES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOPEFULLY THE MAIN BOUNDARY/CONVECTIVE FOCAL
POINT WILL PUSH SOUTH LATER SUN AND INTO MON FOR MAINLY A LULL
PERIOD. BUT IT STILL MAY BE TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT ACRS KS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. WILL PLAY TEMPS THIS PERIOD NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS A GRT LKS UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD...LONGER RANGE SIGNALS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE ROCKIES PATTERN WILL RE-
ESTABLISH INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR TYPE HIGH
DUMPING DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS AND BIT OF A COOL DOWN. GENERAL
DRY WX TOO THROUGH WED...BUT POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDING MCS MAY
CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
 ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER THAN FEW-SCT040-060 THIS
AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST TONIGHT LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE