Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 120845
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
145 AM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and showery weather will be observed over central
and northern Nevada through Wednesday. It will be breezy to
windy, resulting in blowing snow, mainly over the mountains. A
drying and warming trend is in store Thursday through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...A shortwave trough
and attendant cold front has approached the Washington and Oregon
coast this morning, and light precipitation has developed ahead of
the system over northwest Nevada. Precipitation will spread over
the remainder of the forecast area this morning as the trough
tracks across the Pacific NW. Snow levels will vary from 5500 feet
over Humboldt County to 7000 feet over southern White Pine and Nye
Counties. The westerly flow will provide moderate upslope snow
showers along the Ruby Mountains and east Humboldt Ridge as well
as the higher mountains of northern Elko County where Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect. The trough will deepen over
Idaho tonight, resulting in a northwest flow aloft over Nevada.
Snow levels will lower to around 3500-4500 feet, however scattered
showers will decrease to isolated snow showers overnight with
drier air behind the front. Overall, snow amounts will range from
a trace to 0.5 inch for most of the valleys with the exception of
northern Elko County where 1-3 inches of snow are forecast in the
valleys...3-4 inches along the higher ridges. The air mass is
marginally unstable ahead of the shortwave trough, and a few
thunderstorms may develop. Based on the latest HREF, confidence in
thunderstorms this afternoon is around 20% for isolated activity.

Wednesday will be around 7-10 degrees cooler than today with highs
in the 30s to lower 40s. The trough will deepen into a closed
upper low over the eastern Great Basin, and winds on the backside
of the low will be from the north at the surface and aloft. There
will be a bitterly cold wind chill with breezy to windy north
winds across the board. Winds gusting to 55 mph in northern Nye
County and southern Elko County has warranted a Wind Advisory in
effect through Thursday evening. There will be scattered light
snow showers on Wednesday due to the wrap around moisture from the
low with several inches of additional snow along the higher peaks
of Elko and White Pine Counties. Winds will cause patchy to areas
of blowing snow. Precipitation will taper off Wednesday night,
and temperatures will fall into the teens and 20s overnight.



.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

With high pressure just off the Pacific NW coast and an upper
level low over AZ, jet energy Thursday snakes down across the
inter-mountain west (Id/Mt), then to the southwest across NW NV
and into CA, ultimately wrapping around the base of an upper
level low over AZ. Under this pattern, northern and central NV
will experience a warming trend along with dry and breezy
conditions. In addition to the northern flow aloft, at the surface
there is high pressure to the N-NW of Nevada with a low over AZ.
On Thursday the surface gradient is tightest across Northern Nye
county, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7PM.
Northerly winds will be breezy across the rest of the CWA Thursday
afternoon as well, with 15-25mph gusting 30-45mph. Highest speeds
and gusts other than Northern Nye county will be across White
Pine and eastern Elko counties.

Friday and on through the weekend the upper level low over AZ will
drift off to the south, while at the same time the high pressure
along the west coast will push inland across the western states.
For Nevada this will result in weakening of the pressure gradients
and lighter winds. Dry conditions along with warming temperatures
will continue as the west coast ridge centers over NV.

Trough energy dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska Monday will
help to flatten out the ridging over the western US. Monday
afternoon and night the flow over NV becomes zonal, with
temperatures continuing to rise, with most locations expected to
see afternoon highs around 10 degrees above normal (mid 50s to mid
60s).

&&

.AVIATION...Unsettle weather continues this morning, with a mix
of rain and snow at KWMC KBAM KEKO and KELY that may result in
periods of MVFR CIGs and or VIS, and possibly IFR in any heavier
snow showers. KTPH likely remains dry today with only a 5-10%
chance of rain. There is 15-20% chance of thunderstorms across
northeastern and east-central NV this afternoon, though for now
now enough confidence to add VCTS to KEKO or KELY, which would be
the two terminals with the highest chances of any convective
activity. W-SW winds with gusts of 20-25kts are likely this
afternoon at all terminals except KELY.

&&



.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM
PDT Wednesday Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday South Central
Elko County...Southeastern Elko County.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 7 PM PDT Thursday
Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

99/96/96


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