541
FXUS65 KLKN 062030
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
130 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 124 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

* Warming Trend underway as high pressure builds across Nevada.

* High temperatures will rise into the low 90s to low 100s by
  Tuesday as lows only fall into the lower 50s to low 60s.

* Near critical fire weather conditions possible Monday and
  Tuesday for Central Nevada with Fire Weather Watches in effect.

* Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly
  cooler temperatures for northern NV Wednesday and Thursday. Heat
  returns for the weekend as highs reach the mid 90s to 100s.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The main weather features to watch for the next week will be an
upper trough situated off the west coast and a strong upper level
ridge of high pressure over the desert SW. This will leave Nevada
under a dry southwesterly flow aloft with surface winds being
dictated by how close the trough and ridge get. Models have been
shifting a bit on the track of the upper trough, but do agree that
round one of a warming trend peaking Tuesday afternoon. High
temperatures look to rise into the low 90s to low 100s as night
time low range in the low 50s to low 60s, which with the exception
of West Wendover which will see lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The quick cooling of nighttime temperatures help midi-gate
potential heat headlines for the first half of the week. As for
the upper trough, models show that it will make little headway
through Tuesday of next week. Models, however have been a bit back
and forth on the timing and track of the upper trough as current
runs are quicker to bring the trough onshore than yesterday, but
with the track farther north across Idaho. What models agree on it
it will increase the SW winds across central Nevada for Monday,
and Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch in in effect for parts of
central Nevada Monday and Tuesday afternoons as RH falls below
10%, and stronger SW winds of 15 to 25mph with gusts up to 35mph
will be possible. Although not to likely as a possibility, have
introduced a low 10% chance for some isolated dry thunderstorms
for the far north along the OR/ID border as there may be enough
spillover moisture to generate a few build-ups. Good news is this
upper trough will finally depart the region by Thursday afternoon,
having brought slightly cooler temps for the I-80 corridor and
points north. The bad news is that after Thursday, models agree on
re-building the ridge over the lower Colorado river valley
stronger than it has been. This setup will bring even drier
westerly flow aloft, slightly higher heights over Nevada, meaning
slightly weaker afternoon winds, but even warmer temperatures will
be possible over the area with highs reaching the mid 90s to 100s
and a return to possible heat headlines for next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building in over
the the Great Basin for the weekend trough the first half of next
week leading to warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

There is moderate to high confidence of near critical, to
critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday afternoons
across parts of central NV.

Confidence is moderate to high that the upper level ridge will
build back in over the great basin region, after the upper trough
moves through Nevada Thursday. Leading to another warm-up for next
weekend.

The main deviation from the previous forecast was to increase
winds and wind gusts for Monday, and Tuesday as models have had a
low forecast bias, especially across central NV.


&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions at all sites through the next 24 hours. Afternoon
gusts around 20KT appear possible at all sites but were only
persistent enough for TAF inclusion at KWMC/KELY/KTPH.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today with winds
gusting around 20 mph. Fire weather conditions look to intensify
to start the week, with a Fire Weather Watch currently in place
for zones 426/7 on Monday and zones 425/6/7 Tuesday due to winds
over 30 mph and single digit min Rhs. Conditions remain near-
critical for Wednesday but current guidance indicates winds
dropping back below critical threshold. Conditions look to remain
elevated through the end of the forecast, but winds look to remain
well below that critical threshold from Thursday on.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
NVZ425>427.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
NVZ426-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94