455
FXUS62 KMFL 091921
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
321 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...Very Warm to Hot Conditions Continue Into Next Week...
...Rain Chances Return To South Florida This Weekend Into Next Week...

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

The H5 ridge axis is positioned over South Florida today
maintains the warm, dry, and stable airmass over the area. At the
surface we reside on the western periphery of Atlantic high
pressure supporting generally southerly flow, with the zonal
component of the flow largely influence by the local sea-breeze
circulations. This setup will result in another day of warm
temperatures and near-zero measurable rain chances, with highs
largely reaching the 90s apart from the immediate east coast.
Can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles over the interior (near
the area of max sea-breeze convergence), but given the dry/stable
mid-lvls suspect vertical development of the cu field will be
quite limited. Overnight lows will remain mild (in the low to mid
70s), with the only minor forecast concern being some stratus
potential near the Lake.

The ridge will flatten heading into Friday with surface low
pressure moving into the SE US. A warm prefrontal regime will
prevail over SFL, with 850mb temps around 20C likely, which would
be near the climatological maximum observed for this time of year.
Consequently warm to near record temperatures can be expected with
highs in the mid to upper 90s over the Interior, with lower 90s
near the immediate coast. For the east coast metro the
question will be how far inland and how quickly the sea breeze
pushes inland. For locations where the winds remain SWrly most of
the day, highs in the mid 90s are likely, while for locations that
experience an earlier sea breeze passage highs will likely be
around 90. As a slight consolation the airmass will remain
relatively dry so peak heat indices will only be marginally higher
than air temperatures, i.e. largely in the upper 90s to around
100.

Although multiple MCSs are currently progged in the warm sector
south of the front on Friday, the current consensus is that the
lingering presence of the ridge should mostly force those to track
either north of the area, or weaken them significantly as they
approach our area. As a result will keep PoPs unmentionable on
Friday, but it isn`t totally impossible the Lake region gets
clipped later in the day by one of these decaying MCSs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024


.This Weekend...
High pressure that been over The Florida Peninsula will be
weakening on Friday allowing for a front to move southward and
into South Florida on Saturday. The front will then move back
north on Sunday into Central Florida. Therefore, the weather will
remain dry on Friday over South Florida before a chance of showers
and a few thunderstorms develop on Saturday. The best coverage
will be over the eastern areas due to the southwest wind flow.

Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the lower to mid 90s over
most areas except mid to upper 80s over the west coast metro
areas. The heat index readings will be in the 100 to 105 range
over most areas, except 95 to 100 over the west coast metro areas
each afternoon.

Sunday highs will be a little bit cooler with lower to mid 90s
over the interior areas to around 90 over the metro areas. The
heat index readings will be around 90 over the metro areas to the
mid to upper 90s over the interior areas.

Lows each night this weekend will be lower to mid 70s over the
metro areas to around 70 over the interior areas. The only
exception is west of Lake Okeechobee on Saturday night where lows
will be in the mid 60s.

.Early To Middle Of Next Week...
The ridge of high pressure will build into South Florida for early
next week before getting push southward into the Florida Straits
middle of next week, as a trough of low pressure moves through the
Southeastern United States. This will allow for the winds to swing
from a southeast direction early next week to a southwest
direction middle of next week. This will keep some moisture in
place over South Florida through this time frame. Therefore,
scattered showers and low chance of thunderstorms will be possible
each day. The highest focus will be over the interior and west
coast metro areas early next week before shifting to the east
coast metro areas for the middle of next week.

Highs each day early next week will be in the lower to mid 90s
except around 90 east coast metro areas. Heat index readings will
be in the lower to mid 100s over most areas except around 100 east
coast metro areas.

Highs for the middle of next week will be in the mid to upper 9s0
over most areas, except for the west coast metro areas where they
will be around 90. Heat index readings during this time will be in
the 103 to 105 range, except around 100 for the west coast metro
areas.

Lows for early to middle of next week will be in the lower to mid
70s over most areas, except mid to upper 70s over the east coast
metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. SErly
winds 10-15kts will prevail this afternoon apart from KAPF where
SWrly winds can be expected. Winds will trend light and variable
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A moderate to fresh southerly wind flow across the local waters today
will turn southwesterly on Friday as a frontal boundary approaches
the region. Winds over the Atlantic waters will likely reach
cautionary to near-hazardous conditions Friday evening into Friday
night. There will be a chance of some showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach
coastline through Friday. As winds trend more westerly over the
weekend the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative
humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could
range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of
South Florida. This combined with the generally dry fuels could
lead to enhanced fire weather conditions across these areas,
although winds should remain below Red Flag criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  93  76  95 /   0   0  10  40
West Kendall     72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  30
Opa-Locka        75  95  75  95 /   0   0  10  40
Homestead        74  92  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  75  92  76  94 /   0   0  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  75  94  76  94 /   0   0  10  40
Pembroke Pines   76  96  76  95 /   0   0  10  40
West Palm Beach  73  95  74  95 /   0  10  10  40
Boca Raton       74  95  75  94 /   0   0  10  40
Naples           75  90  77  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...Carr
FIRE WEATHER...Carr