144
FXUS62 KMFL 111106
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
706 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

What was once a vigorous cold front being propelled by an
deamplifying trough over the eastern United States will weaken as it
moves south across the peninsula of Florida today. Even with some
moisture pooling along the boundary as it enters south central
Florida this morning and settles over southern Florida for the rest
of the weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain fairly
restrained due to some presence of deeper layered drier air and the
lack of support aloft for the cold front. The parent low will
transit across the Atlantic off the Carolinas towards eastern Canada
through the weekend.

The westerly flow will keep warm temperatures over a good portion of
the peninsula and allow the airmass to warm over the peninsula
before reaching the east coast metro area where widespread 90s can
be expected again today except for sea breeze cooled areas near the
coast. The increasing cloud cover and northerly to easterly flow on
Sunday will help cool some portions of the east coast metro a few
degrees but the heat will continue inland and across Southwest
Florida. Widespread triple digit heat index values are forecast
today with mid to upper 90s on Sunday except for Miami-Dade County
where the triple digit heat index values will return for another day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The next disturbance begins to emerge over the central United States
early on Monday with the formerly stalled front over southern
Florida beginning its retreat northward ahead of the next cold
front. A mid-level will move across the Mississippi River valley
Monday in Tuesday before moving into the Ohio and Tennessee River
valleys by mid-week. This will lead to a surge in moisture across
the region with the focus remaining to the north of the forecast
area closer to the frontal boundary near the Interstate 10 corridor
in northern Florida or the wiregrass regions of South Georgia and
Alabama. As the mid-level low is reabsorbed into the mean flow and
pushes east into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and finally into
the Atlantic, the cold front will slide south across the peninsula
once again settling over central or south central Florida around
Wednesday before the boundary retreats back northward late in the
week as the next impulse moves across the southeastern United States
to close out the week and kick off next weekend.

Hot temperatures will return by mid-week and persist through the end
of the period. Some days could see widespread triple digit heat
index values which will need to be monitored closely in case the
threat of heat illness requires a Heat Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR prevails through around 15Z, then some MVFR/VFR periods are
possible with showers or thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
terminals, mainly over the Atlantic coast. W/SW winds will
increase to around 12 kts after 15Z with gusts in the 20kts range.
Winds should continue to veer later tonight as a front crosses the
area, possibly shifting NNW after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Moderate to fresh southwesterly to westerly winds today as a cold
frontal approaches the area. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on today as the frontal boundary moves into the region
which could linger into Sunday over some of the local waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

As winds trend more westerly/offshore over the weekend, the risk
will decrease across the Atlantic beaches. The risk will grow with
the return of onshore flow by Monday along the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place over the next few
days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent
over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the
lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather
conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            96  75  92  77 /  20  10  10  10
West Kendall     97  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        97  74  93  76 /  30  10  10  10
Homestead        96  74  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  95  75  89  77 /  30  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  95  75  89  76 /  40  20  10  10
Pembroke Pines   98  75  93  77 /  30  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  94  73  89  75 /  40  20  10  10
Boca Raton       96  74  89  76 /  40  20  20  10
Naples           90  73  90  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RAG
AVIATION...17