Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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042 FXUS64 KOUN 132016 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A mid/upper-level low in Kansas will continue to slowly move eastward toward the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop on the trailing wind shift across east central into southeast Oklahoma. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also occur across across north central into central Oklahoma in association with the upper-level low itself. The convection should exit by early evening. For Tuesday, mid-level heights will rise as the mid/upper-level low moves toward the Midwest. Dry and warmer conditions are expected with abundant sunshine. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 By Wednesday, a quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to be located somewhere across northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough lifts into the Plains. The location of this boundary may depend on earlier convection in Kansas (i.e., reinforced by outflow). Low- level moisture pooling and low-level coverage along this boundary appears sufficient for convective initiation for showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. On Thursday, a more substantial shortwave through will approach the Southern Plains. If there is sufficient recovery Thursday afternoon from the previous night`s convection (and depending on the location of the effective cold front), strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday. In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding will be another potential hazard (especially if heavy rainfall occurs on Wednesday). The trough will be slow to exit with at least a low chance of rain continuing into Friday. By the weekend, a ~595 dam mid-level ridge is progged to develop across Mexico with the Southern Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. Temperatures should gradually rise with mid 80s to mid 90s deg F likely as the low-level thermal ridge expands to the north and east. There will also be a continued low chance of showers and thunderstorms with the area near the periphery of the stronger mid-level flow. Mahale && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Although the low cloud deck has lifted to VFR conditions across our terminals in far western Oklahoma, our terminals in central Oklahoma (KPNC, KSWO & KOUN) will remain under MVFR conditions at least through 21Z with KOKC near MVFR. Although currently under VFR conditions, will keep a TEMPO for MVFR conditions through 21Z for our southwest terminals (KLAW & KSPS). In southeast Oklahoma, terminal KDUA should gradually improve to VFR conditions by 22Z and could see a few isolated thunderstorms during that period as well. By 21-22Z, most terminals should be improved to VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast. However, dense radiational fog is possible tonight across southeast Oklahoma which may affect only terminal KDUA by 08Z with a potential of LIFR conditions through 12Z. A cold front is pushing through veering winds out of the northwest around 10 kt behind the front. After 01Z, winds across all terminals expected to go light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 80 59 87 / 10 0 0 20 Hobart OK 53 84 60 89 / 0 0 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 56 84 61 90 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 49 84 57 88 / 0 0 10 30 Ponca City OK 54 79 56 84 / 20 0 10 30 Durant OK 59 82 59 88 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...68