Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301108
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MCS will continue to move across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas this morning with mainly VCTS possible for sites
BVO/TUL/RVS/XNA/ROG/FYV. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
be possible for these locations this afternoon and tonight though
with limited coverage will keep mention out of TAFs for now.
Broken mid clouds with variable winds should also be common across
Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today before scattering
out overnight tonight. For Southeast Oklahoma into West Central
Arkansas...scattered mid/high clouds and variable winds are
forecast through the TAF period. VFR conditions look to persist
through the TAF period across the CWA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convection continues moving through SW KS/NW OK early this
morning in northwest flow aloft. Recent radar trends indicate MCV
starting to develop and this feature will move into northeast
Oklahoma later this morning with scattered showers/thunderstorms
likely. Airmass will become marginally unstable across far
northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by early afternoon with the
potential for storms to re-intensify. A few of the stronger cells
could produce marginally severe winds, primarily over NW AR where
instability is expected to be the highest.

Overall weather pattern will remain unsettled for the remainder
of the work week into the weekend. Weak upper wave currently
located over the Baja region will lift northeast into the area
Thursday into Friday with shower/thunderstorm chances increasing.

Upper level trough will slowly approach from the west Saturday
into Sunday with the potential for multiple rounds of storms,
including heavy rainfall. Trying to nail down the heavier QPF
amounts will remain challenging for the next few days given the
models inability to resolve evolution of smaller scale waves that
will likely develop within broader trough. Precipitation should
begin to shift southeast of the region by Monday behind weak cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  62  87  66 /  40  20  20  10
FSM   87  64  88  67 /  20  10  20  10
MLC   85  62  88  66 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   81  56  85  62 /  50  20  20  10
FYV   80  56  82  60 /  40  20  20  10
BYV   80  58  82  63 /  50  20  20  10
MKO   82  62  86  64 /  20  10  20  10
MIO   79  57  85  63 /  50  20  20  10
F10   84  62  87  66 /  20  10  20  10
HHW   88  63  89  68 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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