Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING THE CWA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH A DIFFERENCE OF
ABOUT 22 MB AT THE SURFACE FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE RESULT HAS BEEN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 15 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE STATE AT MID
MORNING.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40+ MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE
WAVE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 50S....A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 60 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS...WARMER TEMPS AND ALSO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALLING
BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGERS ACROSS
THE CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CO-LOCATED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW. ALSO...THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LET IT RIDE AS IS.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK WIND/TEMP GRIDS BASED ON THE
MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ALSO TWEAK SKY GRIDS AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  44  55  35 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   56  41  57  47 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   58  47  57  41 /   0   0  30  60
BVO   57  42  54  33 /   0   0  20  50
FYV   52  41  54  43 /   0   0  20  60
BYV   51  41  54  44 /   0   0  20  60
MKO   57  44  57  40 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   55  43  55  36 /   0   0  20  60
F10   58  46  56  37 /   0   0  20  60
HHW   59  44  57  48 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30





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