Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MID AND HIGH
OVERCAST. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY ABOUT 1 OR
2 AM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A BIT LATER IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOTE: AN ONGOING PROBLEM WITH THE VIZ SENSOR AT KRVS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FALSE LOW VIS READINGS. WE EXPECT P6SM CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. HOWEVER... IF REPORTED WX BECOMES ANYTHING OTHER THAN
HZ... VIZ MAY THEN ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN 6SM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THE MCS WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GET IN ON THE ACTION. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS TO FIT THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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