Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VIS HAVE STAYED IN THE 7-10SM RANGE SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET
MUCH HAZE FORMING FROM THE SMOKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO BRING 20000 FT CIGS. SOME MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BUT STAY BELOW
12 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR



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