Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLD SHRA CONTINUE TO SPUTTER ACROSS NW MN SO EXTENDED LOW POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHRA ACROSS NE FA BECOMING MORE ISOLATED SO LOWERED POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EDGING BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON LOCATION AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS...WITH THE ECMWF AND 12Z NAM FAVORING HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS FAR SERN ND INTO WCNTRL MN ON SATURDAY EVENING ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVIER DEFORMATION ZONE TYPE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MN...AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HANGING BACK WEST OF A CANDO TO
BISMARCK LINE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING COULD GIVE
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND A BLENDED ECMWF/GFS/GEM SOLN IS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SRN MANITOBA AND
ONTARIO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BRINGING
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING TO TRIGGER -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO WRAP BEHIND THE
LOW...KEEPING SKIES OVER THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY. AS THE UPPER TROF
DIGS IN...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CIGS HAVE LIFTED MOST AREAS TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR. GUIDANCE WANTS
TO LOWER CIGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TRENDED CIGS BACK DOWN
TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK INTO FOG POTENTIAL TOWARDS
MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER






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