Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 282341
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016
For 00Z Aviation.
As expected, shower and storm development has been confined to the
northern portions of our forecast area. As easterly to southeasterly
1000-500mb flow continues across much of the southeast, a fetch of
"drier" air continues to affect the southern half of the forecast
area. Therefore, very isolated if any convection is expected to
develop for locations such as Demopolis, Montgomery, and Auburn this
afternoon. With additional moisture and upper level energy moving
westward around the upper ridge to our northeast, we can expect the
scattered showers and storms to continue for the rest of the
afternoon, and then quickly dissipating after sunset this evening.
Monday through Sunday.
Central Alabama will be on the bottom side of a upper ridge Monday
and Tuesday. Several weak impulses will push along the easterly
upper flow. Models are in good agreement in bringing one impulse
into east Alabama Monday afternoon, and increased pops slightly
across the southeast counties. Isolated convection will be
possible across east Alabama again on Tuesday afternoon. By
Wednesday two important features will come into play across the
central Gulf Coast region. The tropical wave currently over Cuba
will likely get its act together as the models are clustering
towards a projected path. The models are taking the center of
circulation across the Florida Big Bend area by Thursday. Still a
lot of uncertainty regarding intensity, but this projected path
would keep central Alabama on the dry and stable side of the
system. This forecast is based on the tropical system passing to
the east of Alabama. The eastward push of the tropical system is
being influenced by a second feature. A strong short wave trof
will dig southward across the eastern United States next week.
This will bring a slight increase in moisture and lift on
Thursday, but kept pops in the low side for now. The drier mid
level air will spread southward across the area on Friday as the
tropical system lifts northeast into the Atlantic. Considered
removing all rain chances for next weekend, but the ECMWF model
brings some moisture back into the area over the weekend, so left
small rain chances on Saturday.
00Z TAF Discussion.
Visible satellite and Doppler radar show a few concentrated
cumulus bands along boundaries, yielding isolated pulse showers
and storms. This last bit of convection will be near BHM-EET-ASN-ANB
early this evening, before everything draws to a close. Surface
winds tonight will range from calm to very light, with an
~easterly component for any breezes.
VFR conditions prevail tomorrow. Scattered cumulus comes forth
around mid-day Monday, with renewed isolated shower/storm cells
afternoon to early-evening. Again, coverage is expected to be on
the spotty/isolated side, so I`ve not included mentions in the
TAFs at this time. Any impacts will become more apparent heading
into Monday afternoon. Surface winds will increase through the
morning hours, and average northeasterly to easterly around 6-11
knots through the day. Some sporadic gusts around 15-knots are
possible as well.
Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will
continue thru midweek, with only isolated afternoon storms each
day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 71 92 71 91 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
Anniston 71 91 72 91 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
Birmingham 74 93 75 93 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 74 94 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
Calera 74 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Auburn 73 91 73 90 73 / 10 30 10 20 10
Montgomery 75 94 75 94 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
Troy 72 92 72 92 73 / 10 20 10 20 10