Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 181958
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY PLEASANT. WE`VE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON CONDITIONS OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD STORMS...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WE`VE THEREFORE
ADDED IN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-59 CORRIDOR. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA FRIDAY EVENING...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALSO...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND EASTERN ALABAMA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AS IT ENTERS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE WEATHER PATTERN
AFTERWARD SURE LOOKS LIKE AUTUMN AROUND HERE...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS IS COMMON WITH EARLY AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AROUND
HERE...WE DON`T GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE VERY POSITIVELY TILTED FRONT. THEREFORE...WE MAY ONLY SEE A
FEW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. FOR NOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT. WHAT WE WILL EXPECT...IS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

87/GRANTHAM

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  85  64  83  61 /  20  20  10  10   0
ANNISTON    64  85  65  83  63 /  10  20  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  87  67  85  66 /  20  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  91  68  89  66 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      66  87  67  85  64 /  20  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  88  66  83  63 /  10  20  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  67  91  67  87  65 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        65  90  65  86  64 /   0  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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