Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281042
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
442 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION AND PLENTY OF LIFT. A LOW LEVEL
JET WAS HELPING WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A NEAR TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS GENERALLY IN A
BAND IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES WILL
SURELY BE REPORTED. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. A HEAVIER
BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NEAR DEMOPOLIS TO ALABASTER AND
CLANTON TO LINEVILLE THROUGH 6AM. THIS MAY DROP ANOTHER INCH OF
RAIN IN AND NEAR THESE LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT INCHES ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE
FEATURES MOVE ACROSS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AS IS UNTIL
MONDAY MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD. A 1050MB HIGH SLIDES DOWN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES QUITE A BIT BEFORE
ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT WILL COOL US DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SOME CONTINUITY HEADING INTO
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST. TYPICALLY DO NOT LIKE TO ADD HIGH
POPS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRICKY SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT MODELS
HAVE HAD A FEW DAYS OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING AND
DAMPENING OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. BUT LIKE I MENTIONED BEFORE...SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS CAN BE TRICKY AND WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY. A SHIFT
IN THE PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
ANTICIPATE THEM TO FALL TO IFR BY 09Z OR SO. SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT TOO HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE NIGHT WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

19


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

CENTRAL ALABAMA STREAMFLOWS WERE RUNNING AT 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL
OR BETTER BEFORE THE RAIN OF THE PAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...MANY
LOCAL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR BANKFULL. A FEW WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE RISES WILL
EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AND A FEW LOCATIONS WILL
REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGES. CHECK OUR HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  44  56  36  52 / 100 100  20  10  10
ANNISTON    62  49  60  41  55 / 100 100  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  45  56  38  53 / 100 100  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  45  55  37  54 / 100 100  20  10  10
CALERA      62  47  59  41  55 / 100 100  20  10  10
AUBURN      66  50  64  44  58 /  80  80  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  69  52  65  44  60 /  90  80  20  10  10
TROY        71  50  65  43  60 /  60  70  30  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...
LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...
TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$







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