Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 192333
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
This afternoon and tonight.

A very dry air mass will prevail across the area through tonight,
although surface dewpoint temperatures are considerably higher
than yesterday afternoon. The moisture layer is very shallow, and
surface dewpoints will fall overnight and the air mass cools.
Temperatures Friday morning will be a little warmer than this
morning, especially across the southern counties.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

A slow warming trend will continue for Friday and Saturday as a
ridge aloft and at the surface moves eastward and gives way to an
approaching Plains trough. The western edge of the ridge should
extend far enough west to keep higher moisture content aimed to
areas west of Alabama on Saturday.

Rain chances will begin to increase sometime in the Sunday
afternoon to Monday morning timeframe, but models continue to
struggle with the handling of our next weather system. The
forecast is a blend of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF until
better agreement is reached. Widespread soaking rainfall looks
likely on Monday with both models indicating a slow-moving closed
upper trough affecting the region. An upstream disturbance will
cause the trough to become an open wave and accelerate eastward
Monday night, putting an end to the rainfall. Much cooler
conditions are expected for Tuesday into Wednesday as the coolest
air of the season becomes entrenched across the eastern CONUS.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

--VFR conditions tonight through Friday--

A plume of moisture will move through the upper-level flow during
the period, resulting in swaths of cirrus translating through the
region; that`s about it weather-wise, with a calm wind tonight
becoming ~easterly around 5 knots post-sunrise Friday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mild and dry weather will continue through Saturday. Relative
humidity values should remain above critical thresholds. There
are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     44  77  49  78  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Anniston    47  78  53  78  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  49  79  57  80  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  49  80  56  82  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
Calera      49  79  56  80  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Auburn      50  79  56  79  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  51  81  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
Troy        48  81  57  82  63 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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