Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 062321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEEKEND HAS MOVED FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE. WILL CARRY 10 PERCENT POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TONIGHT.

MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOW THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK
STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AT OR BELOW CLIMO LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL ALSO HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S.

THE RIDGE APPEARS TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MORE TYPICAL
OF SUMMER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
WARMER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  91  71  93  71 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    70  89  71  92  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  91  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  93  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      71  90  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      70  90  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  72  93  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
TROY        71  93  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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