Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 141142
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CLOUD COVER IS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING
AS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO
WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. AS CLOUD
COVER MOVES IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST BEFORE SUNRISE.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BECOME SOUTHERLY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST.
WITH MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A CONVERGENT ZONE WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL TODAY. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL OFFSET WARM
ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SOUTHWARD AS A SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT LATEST MODELS
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN COVERAGE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...BY 15-20 DEGREES. EXPECT A COOL DOWN
AFTER SUNSET...BUT COOLING SHOULD BECOME STEADY AS CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

14

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED SHARPEN ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THINGS ARE
LOOKING VERY WET WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS...A WARM
SECTOR COULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH INLAND FOR A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A MODIFIED
AIRMASS OVER THE GULF...AND DEWPOINTS MAY ONLY RISE INTO THE MID
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...
THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALL THE WAY
UP TO THE 300 MB LEVEL...AND INSTABILITY COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR A LIMITED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
ADDED TO THE HWO.

AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR A
DEVELOPING WARM/STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONSIDERED
TAKING THE FLOODING THREAT OUT OF THE HWO...BUT WILL LEAVE IT IN
FOR FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL THE RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEIGHT RISES
WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3KFT ACROSS THE
NORTH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH THE NEXT FORECAST.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  40  52  38  59 /  10  50 100  80  20
ANNISTON    50  40  55  40  61 /  10  20 100  90  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  45  58  39  61 /  10  40 100  70  10
TUSCALOOSA  53  46  60  39  65 /  10  30 100  50  10
CALERA      52  44  59  40  63 /  10  20 100  70  10
AUBURN      53  41  61  43  63 /   0  10 100  90  10
MONTGOMERY  58  42  64  43  66 /   0  20 100  80  10
TROY        58  42  65  45  66 /   0  10  80  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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