Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 270535
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1235 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE DRY SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIN. EXPECT STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. AT 03Z
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS/LATEST LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A MOISTURE INCREASE. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT EASTWARD
BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING LINGERING UPPER RIDGING DIRECTING
DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP FORECAST WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN
THE NORTH PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS
DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT EAST OR SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY BECOME A WARM FRONT WITH
A MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONCERN REMAINS IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION MVFR AT CUB/CAE WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR FOG
OGB/AGS BEFORE DAYBREAK. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED THREAT OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS.

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RIVER STAGES WERE OCCURRING BECAUSE OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE HYDROLOGIC AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER HAS CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
ORANGEBURG AND THE RIVER IS NOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE FALLING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A FLOOD THREAT.

ALSO...THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS RESULTED IN AN ELEVATED WATER
LEVEL ON LANGLEY POND. AIKEN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ADVISES
THERE ARE CONTINUED STRUCTURAL ISSUES WITH THE LANGLEY POND DAM.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

&&

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.