Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
880
FXUS62 KCAE 240342
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1042 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record temperatures will continue into this weekend. High
pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and moist air
into region through Saturday. A cold front will cross the area
Sunday into Monday bringing a high chance of showers.
Temperatures will remain above normal next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Clouds diminish early tonight with the loss of heating. However
with the abundant low-level moisture still across the area,
expect that portions of the cwa will see the redevelopment of
low stratus and some patchy fog late. A 20 knot low-level jet is
being shown by Bufkit to develop by Midnight across the area,
and this suggests that widespread low stratus should be more
likely than widespread fog. Overnight lows remaining quite mild
for this time of the year, with readings down around 60 expected
by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...An upper ridge off the Southeast Coast will
weaken on Saturday. Surface high pressure will remain centered
offshore. Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move into the
Middle Mississippi Valley region. The associated cold front will
move into the Tennessee Valley region late Saturday night. Moisture
will deepen from the west on Saturday bringing just a slight chance
of showers to the western portion of the forecast area. The HRRR and
RAP do not show much activity in the area Saturday afternoon which
appears reasonable given little forcing and a cap. Trimmed back pops
a bit. Temperatures on Saturday will be above normal once again.
Highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s.

Sunday...Low pressure will move from the Northern Great Lakes region
into Quebec on Sunday which will allow the cold front to cross the
Appalachians and move into the western portion of the forecast area.
Moisture will continue to deepen on Sunday with the chance of rain
increasing. The NAM is still slower with the system than the GFS so
there remains some uncertainty with the timing of the rainfall.
Continued with likely pops west on Sunday closer to the frontal
boundary and deeper moisture and chance pops further east.
Instability appears quite limited with LI values near 0, but
cannot rule out thunder. Believe the better chance of rain will
occur Saturday night so have continued with likely pops across
the area. The pressure gradient will tighten on Sunday ahead of
the front with breezy conditions expected. Southwesterly winds
around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are expected. A lake
wind advisory may need to be considered. Temperatures on Sunday
will be above normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front will continue to gradually progress through the
area on Monday supporting likely pops. The GFS continues to push
the moisture off the coast a bit more quickly than the NAM and
GFS, but expect most of the rainfall to be out of the area by
late Monday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure will
move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday with
dry weather and mostly sunny skies expected across the forecast
area. High pressure will shift off the coast Tuesday night with
moisture and the chance of rain returning to the area for
Wednesday. Low pressure over the Great Lakes region on Thursday
will bring the next cold front into the area for the end of the
work week with unsettled weather continuing. Temperatures
through the period will continue to be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Relative high confidence that cig/vsby restrictions developing
during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning.

Stratus and fog will develop during the early morning and
sunrise hours Saturday. A 20 kt low level jet suggests
widespread low clouds will be more likely than widespread dense
fog. Dense fog may be possible at AGS and OGB, but confidence is
low at this time.

Saturday morning, low clouds will begin to lift and break up
around 15Z with VFR returning to all sites by late morning.
Winds will be out of the SW as the high off the coast shifts
further south.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in late night
and early morning fog and stratus Sunday morning. Chance of
showers and associated restrictions Sunday afternoon through
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CAE has tied the record of 82 set in 1962.
AGS only reached 81 degrees today, thus not reaching its record
of 82 set in 2012.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.