Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 241049
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING
MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE
LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS
HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE UPSTATE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION SO HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
ALL SITES AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FRONT WILL
SLIDE TO THE COAST TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z...THEN VEERING TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH
25/00Z...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 25/04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.