Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 300752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AND PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A VERY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN JUST SOME CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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