Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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881
FXUS62 KCAE 091134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
CLOUDINESS EAST INTO OUR FA...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER
AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH MIXING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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