Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 302359
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS/IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXPECT CEILINGS/VSBYS TO
LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




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