Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 290001 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
NEARLY 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES AND SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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