Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 220547
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
147 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Cold front has moved offshore with cooler and substantially drier
overtaking the area. An upper level trough axis will cross the
region this afternoon allowing reinforcing cold air into the
area. The cooler air will reside over the region through the
weekend with mostly clear skies.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cold advection pattern will prevail through the day as colder and
drier air pushes into the region with high pressure. Downsloping
flow will keep skies clear through the day. Plenty of sunshine
will combine with the downslope winds to limit some of the cold
advection. Even so, temperatures will be well below what we have
seen in quite some time. Afternoon highs reach into the middle to
upper 60s. Winds will still remain strong through the day, with
some wind gusts up to 20 mph still possible. However speeds over
area lakes will be diminished, so the Lake Wind Advisory should be
allowed to expire at 8 am this morning. Will re-evaluate closer
to expiration time.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Moderately strong radiation cooling conditions tonight so tweaked
temperatures down from Mos. Temperatures in the mid 30s to around
Southwest winds/weak warm advection Sunday as trough develops in
the mountains and ridge along the coast. Maximum temperatures
should warm to near normal values in the low 70s. With low-level
jet stronger...temperatures Sunday night should moderate somewhat.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another re-enforcing dry weak cold front moves through the area
late Monday afternoon or evening. High pressure will build
southeast from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region early in
the period. A clipper system will move across the Great Lakes and
Ohio valley late in the period...and drive a cold front through
the region late Thursday. Models indicate moisture will be
limited although 12z GFS appears stronger and further south with
surface/upper level closed low in the Ohio valley than ECMWF. GFS
indicating less run-run consistency. With ensemble pops low will
continue dry forecast. Expect highs mainly in the 70s and lows in
the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A dry airmass
is pushing into the region. This dry air in combination with good
low-level mixing will limit any kind of fog formation. Biggest
issue will revolve around wind gusts through the late afternoon
period today. Sustained winds between 5 and 10 knots early this
morning will increase to around 10 knots during the day. Wind
gusts during the day may reach 18 knots. This is still supported
by some of the models by the Bufkit momentum transfer tool.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ015-016-