Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211946
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
346 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR.
THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES CLEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY SEE A FEW STRATO-CU CLOUDS
ALONG FRONT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER
10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT
EXPECTED. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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