Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 022353
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PROCESS OF WINDING DOWN. A FEW OTHER
CELLS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT WINDS
LATE TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG...DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA TO OUR NW ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG HEATING WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUS SOME
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. RECENT VERIFICATION FAVORS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC DOMINATING EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLING OR
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT IN
THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT EARLY INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CROSSING THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH 04Z. SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT WINDS...DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE
DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR. HAVE INDICATED IFR CONDITIONS
AT AGS/OGB AND MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB/DNL IN THE 08Z TO
12Z TIME-FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN THE 12Z-14Z
TIME-FRAME.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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