Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 210150 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WERE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDED A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST...ADDED BUFFER ZONE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH/AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO KENTUCKY...WHERE AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED. ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE
WAS SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SO LOWS MAY NOT BE AS COOL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE BOUNDARY WAS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING A SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOL
AIR. WENT WITH THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS SOLUTION...SO THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO WARM UP TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE...MAYBE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO MOVE IN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z. STARTED THE RAIN IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUED IT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH OVER THE
CWA. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DECIDED
TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS
LIKE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER MONDAY AND LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE AREA IT WILL BE A DRY WEEK
WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  92  65  85 /   4   1  16   9
MERIDIAN      60  92  64  88 /   4   1  16  10
VICKSBURG     62  94  63  88 /   4   1  16   8
HATTIESBURG   65  93  68  91 /   4   1  16  20
NATCHEZ       65  91  66  86 /   3   2  16  16
GREENVILLE    66  93  61  83 /   4   2  15   4
GREENWOOD     65  93  61  83 /   4   3  15   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







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