Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 021518 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER JET ENERGY WAS DIGGING
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE FOR A NEGATIVE TILTED FEATURE
LATER. THERE WAS SOME GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR
THE STRONG CONVECTION IN THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. OVER OUR REGION
FLAT MEAN RIDING WAS NOTED WHERE DRY MIDLEVEL AIR(VAPOR IMAGERY) WAS
PUSHING OVER THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE
WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PWATS FROM
1.8 TO AROUND 2 INCHES. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENT TRANSPORT VECTORS WERE
AT MAXIMUM. THIS WAS AIDED BY GOOD INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE. AT 850-025 MB WE HAD TEEN DEWPOINTS FOR RICH
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SHOWERS WERE PRETTY EFFICIENT WITH THE
BIENVILLE FOREST REPORTING 0.48 INCH AND NWS JAN HAD 0.40 INCH AS OF
LATE MORNING.

SHORT RANGE WRF MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE OPTED TO CUT POPS SLIGHTLY
WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR TODAY FOR WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS 88-90 WITH HEAT INDICES FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S. SO WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON./17/


./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...507 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO INITIATE A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WEST OF
THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST BY MOST HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WANE ARE EXPECTED TO WANE
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND WSW 0-3 KM
SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE LINE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER GOING IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE DELTA REGION
INCLUDING THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
INSTABILITY/FORCING AND THE LCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FARTHER
EAST ACROSS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
QUICK DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DELTA
REGION. THE CAVEAT WILL BE TO WATCH FOR QUICKER SYSTEM SPEED AND
EARLIER APPROACH OF CONVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
INTENSITY.

AHEAD OF THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM
WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 DEG F WHILE HEAT INDICES REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
/EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MIDDLE 70S ON
SATURDAY...WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S. THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS THEY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.  A
WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER MOST OF REGION. A PATCH OF SHRA AND TSRA BETWEEN KJAN AND
KMEI IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS KGTR AND KGWO AND WILL MONITOR
TIMING FOR DIRECT SHRA TAF INCLUSION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MORE WIDESPREAD VFR BY EARLY AFTN WITH SCT TSRA DEVELOPING THROUGH
00Z. A QUICK DOWN TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE A STRONGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FROM NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TSRA WITH POCKETS OF
30-50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DELTA REGION 03-07Z. A
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS LINE APPROACHES KJAN AND
SITES FARTHER EAST BUT CONTINUED SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TODAY NEAR 10 KT AND TURN WEST WITH FRONT AND THEN NW
BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING./JA/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  70  84  47 /  37  83  35   0
MERIDIAN      89  68  83  45 /  38  76  60   8
VICKSBURG     92  68  85  46 /  36  87  21   0
HATTIESBURG   89  72  88  55 /  38  52  60   7
NATCHEZ       88  69  80  50 /  38  83  24   0
GREENVILLE    90  67  82  47 /  35  88  16   0
GREENWOOD     90  66  80  44 /  38  90  29   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/EC/19/JA








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