Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 301432 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NE...BUT STILL APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AT IT DEVELOPS A
GOOD PEPPERING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&


.AVIATION...THE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL
TAF SITES AT 14Z. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AREAWIDE. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR THIS AFTN/EVNG
DUE TO ISOLD TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT. A BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF
MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. /22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING
TO TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER >
1.5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY IS POOR AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY INTENSE...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION COULD YIELD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE END OF AUGUST WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID 90S. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS
INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT.
AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASE WE DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS BETTER VERTICAL LIFT
DURING THE TIME. THE EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED
TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP TO FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  92  69 /  12   7   7   4
MERIDIAN      88  65  91  67 /  29   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  67 /   4   7   6   5
HATTIESBURG   93  68  94  70 /   9   6   6   3
NATCHEZ       90  68  90  69 /   4   7  10   5
GREENVILLE    93  69  93  70 /   8   9   5   5
GREENWOOD     92  67  92  68 /  20   8   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/EC/17



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