Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 262140
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINS HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES FOR THE ARKLAMISS.
A VERY WEAK REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING A LITTLE
GREATER. IT APPEARS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST PERIOD - HAVE
GONE WITH A COOLER BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CLIMATIC
AVERAGE...AND A SIZABLE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO TREK THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRINGS SOME CLOUDS BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SURGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND EXIST AREAWIDE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT RESIDING OVER THE
COUNTRY...OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEST SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND.  THIS IS THANKS TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ALOFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAMS
WILL INTERACT...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION AND PERHAPS HEAVIER RAINFALL AT SOME POINT THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY CHILLY AIR TO SURGE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON HOW THIS
SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS POINT. THE MAJORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR LOCKED IN OVER
EASTERN CANADA WHILE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES BIGGER ANOMALIES WILL
SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND POSE A GREATER THREAT TO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
/19/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...EAST TAF SITES WERE STILL REPORTING GUSTS FROM 10-15KTS
AT 21Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHTER
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
EAST.  THE LOWER STRATO CU DECK HAS ERODED ACROSS THE REGION AS VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. NO MAJOR FOG ISSUES ARE EXPECTED./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$






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