Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 271512 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING HYBRID WEAK LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE TX COAST. BROAD ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROMOTE A LITTLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT STATED...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT HARD TO GET STORMS IN OUR REGION SO I CONTINUED TO LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF WEATHER MENTION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN QUITE TOLERABLE (ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD
MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S). MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT GETTING TEMPS
TO PEAK ABOVE 93 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION WILL BE TOUGH SO I
BUMPED DOWN HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THIS THRESHOLD WAS EXCEEDED.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY BUT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. /28/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      93  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       90  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    94  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28/EC/CME




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