Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 010316 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 02Z SHOWING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM KESF-KTVR-KMKL. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON THE EAST
SIDE WITH 40S ON THE WEST. NO REAL PUSH SEEM WITH SURFACE WINDS NOR
WINDS ALOFT AS THEY ARE ALL PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN
AR/W LA/E TX...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST AS 00Z JAN
UA SOUNDING IS SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 750 MB. LIGHT PRECIP
WOULD HAVE TO FALL THROUGH THIS LAYER A WHILE BEFORE ANY COULD REACH
GROUND.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE THIS EVENING...OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A
WESTWARD SURGE IN DEWPOINTS OVER S AL. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AND
IS SHOWING TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT IN EAST MS AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES IN./26/


&&

.AVIATION...CIGS/VSBY WILL STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR
AFTER 12Z AS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SPREAD OVER THE REGION./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT TURNED OUT TO BE QUITE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION FOR THE LAST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. WHILE THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH SUN TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REALLY WARM UP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. READINGS HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID 60S IN
THIS REGION WHERE AS TEMPERATURES IN THE DELTA REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S THANKS IN PART TO THOSE CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS...3PM TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND THIS
IS WELCOME FOR MANY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHICH IS HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE WARMER SIDE BUT HAVE CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THEN ANOTHER DRASTIC CHANGE
WILL OCCUR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE DURING MID-WEEK. AS MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TO THE REGION
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST...SPREADING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT
SHOULD STALL GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT SHOULD STILL SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THIS FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
THE BULK OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE ARKLAMISS REGION INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RISE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AND I ACTUALLY WENT HIGHER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE WAS GIVING ME FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT BUT OVERALL SHOWALTER INDICES
ARE NOT VERY NEGATIVE AND INSTABILITY OTHERWISE IS A LITTLE LOW.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SOME POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION THERE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THAT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL MODELS
AND MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLDER AIR SINKS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA/MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THEN SOMETIME
LATER INTO THE EVENING THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ASSUMING
THERE IS ENOUGH PRECIPITATION LINGERING FOR THAT TO OCCUR. FURTHER
SOUTH...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE BULLISH
NATURE OF THE GFS IN BRINGING THE COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTH DURING
THE TIME OF PRECIPITATION. THIS IS OF COURSE SOMETHING THAT WE WILL
KEEP MONITORING WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. WE HAVE THOUGH INCLUDED
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST
LEAVING THE REGION UNDER COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SO MUCH FOR THE START
TO METEOROLOGICAL SPRING...WE WILL STILL BE FEELING THE GRIPS OF
WINTER. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  63  50  57 /   8  46  60  82
MERIDIAN      47  63  48  57 /   8  18  52  74
VICKSBURG     41  63  49  54 /   8  76  69  85
HATTIESBURG   48  67  52  67 /   8  16  30  49
NATCHEZ       49  64  54  59 /   8  65  58  62
GREENVILLE    33  53  41  46 /   8  85  86  92
GREENWOOD     43  57  44  49 /   8  77  89  93

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





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