Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 051511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...ACTIVE MORNING WITH TRAINING CONVECTION IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. VERY FAVORABLE SETUP IN PLACE WITH A VERY DIVERGENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADV FOCUSED INTO THE BACK
OF THE EVOLVING STORM COMPLEX. CURRENT INDICATIONS (ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR) SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE W-
CENTRAL AND NW CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR BASED OFF RADAR
ESTIMATES...LOCALIZED AREAS HAVE SEEN 3-6 INCHES. WITH THE TRAINING
SETUP...I EXPECT A FEW MORE POCKETS OF 2-5 INCHES WITH SOME OF THAT
OCCURRING OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL INCHES. I
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORM TOTALS FROM JUST THIS MORNING IN THE 7-
10 INCH RANGE. DUE TO THIS...HAVE ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. WE WILL EXPAND IF NEEDED...BUT FEEL THE CURRENT
AREA COVER THE THREAT WELL. AS FOR SEVERE STORMS...ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE TO OUR W/SW AND FEEL AS SFC HEATING GETS GOING...ACTIVITY
OVER THAT AREA WILL INCREASE WHILE THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE GETTING
THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SEE ACTIVITY WANE SOME. WE HAVE
INCREASED SOME OF THE W/SW AREA FOR THE LIMITED SEVERE RISK WHILE
INCREASING THE FLOODING RISK TO COVER MORE AREA AND WE HAVE ADDED AN
ELEVATED RISK AREA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ADJ WAS TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TREND/FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE W/SW/S FOR LATER IN THE DAY. HOURLY
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED TO MATCH TRENDS AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH MULTIPLE SITES
EXPERIENCING VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MAKE NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS DUE TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 / 100  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 / 100  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 / 100  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  72  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  72  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  96  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  57  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/02/


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.