Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 311431 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
931 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3-5F DEGREES DUE TO ONGOING
AND EXPECTED CLOUD AND RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

.DISCUSSION...A S/WV TROUGH OVER AR AND N MS EMBEDDED IN THE H5 NW
FLOW IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IT
APPEARS THERE ARE SEVERAL SEPARATE S/WV TROUGHS WITH ONE PUSHING
EAST OF REGION THROUGH AFTN BUT ANOTHER REMAINING OVER THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND POSITIVE SHOWALTERS STILL LOOK
TO PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES TODAY.

TEXT UPDATES ARE OUT AND GRAPHICS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. AN UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL. WINDS FOR TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8
KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING.
/19/28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  DURING THIS TIME...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH TIME THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR STORMS
DURING THE SHORT TERM ON THE LOW END.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...BOTH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  THEN FOR FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S.  THEN FOR LOWS...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN AID IN KEEPING
LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THEY RANGE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. /19/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. PWS WILL START OUT AROUND TWO INCHES SATURDAY AREAWIDE BUT
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KNOCK PWS DOWN TO AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH SHIFTING MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. GFSMOS
POPS WERE GOOD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A COUPLE DEGREES TOO
WARM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
NAM WHICH WERE CLOSE. A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A 1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER
HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GREATEST POPS THURSDAY WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
DUE TO SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  65  85  69 /  39  21  39  28
MERIDIAN      81  64  86  67 /  25  19  27  17
VICKSBURG     78  66  84  67 /  53  34  53  35
HATTIESBURG   83  66  89  70 /  26  10  36  21
NATCHEZ       80  64  85  68 /  42  28  52  35
GREENVILLE    77  66  83  69 /  70  34  37  22
GREENWOOD     79  65  83  67 /  58  25  26  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/19/28/22





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