Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260838
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
338 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Prominent ridge axis
which has been sheltering the area from convection to the west was
finally compromised yesterday afternoon and evening.  While ridge
looks to still be in place, it has been flattened considerably with
more westerly wind components blowing through at the moment. While
some reorganization of the ridge is likely today, a convective
repeat is also likely over the western sections by afternoon with
eastern areas remaining dry.

As the main core of the mid level storm system in the Rockies
finally moves out into the Plains this afternoon and evening,
disturbed southwesterly flow regime will have an increasing impact
over mainly northwest portions in the form of a better convective
coverage and severe potential.  GFS is showing decent lapse rates
for this time of year with near 30 vertical totals in the ArkLaMiss
Delta region this afternoon and evening.  Combine that with maximum
temperatures near 90 and deep layered shear of 20-25 knots, and some
of those storms could become robust with wind being the main threat.
Will outlook a limited threat of severe storms over the far
northwest this afternoon and evening in close proximity to SPCs
current marginal risk./26/

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday night...The overall pattern
will change very little on Saturday, with the best chances for
diurnal thunderstorm activity over the western portions of the area.
High temps will climb into the upper 80s for most of the area.
Upper ridging will strengthen over the area on Sunday with afternoon
highs climbing to around 90 with isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms possible.  Little will change Monday through Wednesday
with highs climbing to around 90 and isolated afternoon
thunderstorms possible each day.  The global models due indicate the
possibility of a pattern change later in the week, with better
chances of rain across the area. /15/


&&

.AVIATION...Low clouds and fog will support MVFR conditions through
the morning with ceilings rising to vfr by 26/18Z. VCTS can be
expected after 26/18Z at GLH/GWO/JAN and HKS. The convection should
wind down by 27/03Z. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  70  84  68 /  16  18  17  16
Meridian      88  66  86  65 /   8   9  11  11
Vicksburg     86  72  83  68 /  25  28  27  25
Hattiesburg   89  68  86  66 /   7  10   7   9
Natchez       86  72  84  69 /  26  27  27  23
Greenville    88  71  83  69 /  31  37  37  32
Greenwood     88  70  84  68 /  22  27  25  27

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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