Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 181001
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE
WAS PICKING UP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOR SOME MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IT
WILL START TO BRING SOME BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THINGS START TO GET WOUND UP AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...QG FORCING...AND SOME STRONG ASCENT BRINGS SOME HEAVY RAINS
TO AFFECT THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME EMBEDDED ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH WILL HELP
WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES FOR THE SOUTH HALF FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL GIVE A LIMITED RISK OF
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICAST./17/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...SATURDAY WILL START
OUT WET FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE FALLING. THE RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
SHORTWAVE SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR CWA. AS THE LOWS SHIFT EAST A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDGE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION. INDUCED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAST ONE AND ONLY LOW POPS OF LIGHT QPF IS
EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA MONDAY BUT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLOSED OFF A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG TERM WL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR CWA CHRISTMAS NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FOR FRIDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
(~3000 TO 5000 FT) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING IN
THE GLH/GWO TO JAN/HKS AREA. EXPECT LOWER CIGS/-RA TO KEEP MAINLY
WEST OF THE GTR/MEI CORRIDOR AS WE GO THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVNG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  43  50  42 /  32  27  90  85
MERIDIAN      54  41  50  43 /  19  15  81  87
VICKSBURG     51  44  48  42 /  37  35  93  82
HATTIESBURG   61  46  52  47 /  13  25  85  82
NATCHEZ       55  48  52  44 /  40  53  94  79
GREENVILLE    49  41  47  39 /  34  19  87  82
GREENWOOD     51  40  48  40 /  30  15  82  86

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17







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