Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 291937
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT...THE WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DID NOT GET
SUPPRESSED VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH BY THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL WASH
OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH THE OLD
ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS SETTING UP FARTHER
NORTH ON SAT...RETURNING US TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.  ON
SAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
TODAY...AND WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...THE SEA BREEZE
WILL MOVE INLAND FASTER. HENCE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

THE 12Z GFS HAS POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT AT LEESBURG ON SAT...AND 10
PERCENT OR LESS ELSEWHERE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT POP
FORECAST WHICH PRETTY MUCH AGREES WITH GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

00Z SUN - 12Z MON...
DRY/QUIET WX PATTERN TO START NEXT WEEK. AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE
BLANKETING THE DEEP SOUTH/ERN GOMEX WILL DRIFT INTO W ATLC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN H30-H20 ZONAL FLOW PATTERN E OF THE MS RIVER.
E/SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LYR...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STOUT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR THAT WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP
VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.00"-1.25" ALONG THE
COAST...1.25"-1.50" OVER THE INTERIOR...A REASONABLE ASSESSMENT
GIVEN THE ERLY FLOW AND THE LOW LYR MEAN RH VALUES ASSOCD WITH RIDGE
AIRMASS. FURTHERMORE...THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WILL BE MORE OR LESS EVENLY DISTRIBUTED THRU THE COLUMN...
NOT CONCENTRATED IN ANY LOW/MID LYR THAT MIGHT ALLOW SHRAS TO FORM...
NO MENTIONABLE POPS. EXTENDED PD OF DRY WX COUPLED WITH FEW-SCT SKY
COVER WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE U80S/L90S INTERIOR...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE M80S. THE SAME
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MRNG MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S.

EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA ON MON TO TRANSITION NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NW FL BY TUE. LOCALLY...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR PRODUCTIVE SEA BREEZES AND
DEEPER CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR SEGMENT MERGERS WILL BUMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SOME MON AND MORE TUE AND PEAKING 30-40 PERCENT FOR THE
INTERIOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN UPPER 80S AND MINS REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. THEN...WED-THU WILL FIND THE ONCE
SETTLING FRONT MAKING ITS SOUTHWARD MOVE DOWN THE PNSLA.

MODELS HINT AT AN ASSIST FROM A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE U.S. SE TO
HELP SWING THINGS THRU...GRADUALLY BECOMING POST FRONTAL THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS ON WED AFTERNOON (50 PERCENT) AHEAD OF FRONT.
DAYTIME HEATING AND COLDS TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD KICK-OFF CONVECTION
WITH PROMISE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS IN MID-UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY AT THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS THROUGH EVENING AS EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT VFR THROUGH 30/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SAT...RATHER LIGHT GRADIENT WIND IS ALLOWING SEA BREEZE TO
FORM NEAR THE COAST AND IT`S AFFECTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER...THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONSOLIDATE FARTHER NORTH
ON SAT AND INDUCE A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS
LOOK TO BE AROUND 2 FEET INTO SAT MORNING THEN BECOMING 2-3 FEET
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  87  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  69  90  69  90 /  20  10   0   0
MLB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  69  86  71  86 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  88 /  20  10  10   0
ORL  71  90  70  90 /  20  10  10   0
FPR  69  86  70  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW



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