Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210938
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
438 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Temperatures Will Remain Above Normal through the Weekend...

Today/Tonight...Strong mid level ridge (595-596 dm) centered off
the mid Atlc coast will produce subsident drying and reduce the
precipitable water values compared to yesterday. This will limit
the prospect for Atlc showers. In the lower levels, E/SE flow will
continue with breezy conditions along the coast. Above normal
temperatures will continue with mid 80s interior and around 80 at
the coast (except upper 70s Volusia coast). Persistent onshore
flow tonight will keep coastal communities warm with lows in the
low 70s, which is 15-20 degrees above the seasonal average. Min
temps over the interior/Volusia will be mainly in the mid 60s
which is still 10 degrees above average.

Thu-Fri...Deep layer ridge aloft will continue to extend across
Florida, with ridge axis at the surface remaining north of the area
and providing an elevated SE flow in the lower levels. This will
continue a warm and overall dry pattern into late week, with only a
slight chance for showers along the coast Thu night and across
northern portions of east central Florida into Friday. Highs will
continue to range from the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s over
the interior, with lows generally in the 60s. The exception will be
along the coast south of the Cape, where a few coastal spots may
only fall into the low 70s where winds remain onshore.

Sat-Tue...Mid/upper level ridge across Florida remains through the
weekend into early next week. However this feature is compressed by
cutoff low moving through upper Great Lakes early Sunday, and deeper
trough moving through the Midwest into Sunday night/Monday. Surface
ridge axis north of the area, gradually settles southward across
Florida into Sunday and Monday, as a cold front moves into the
southeast and weakens/decelerates into early next week. This front
may slowly cross central Florida into Tuesday with onshore flow
behind this system increasing moisture and rain chances toward
middle of next week. Otherwise warmer than normal and mostly dry
conditions will continue, with only isolated showers forecast
through the period.

Despite any slight cooling behind the weak front at the end of
month, it looks to be a record warm February for some locations in
central Florida, especially at Orlando and Melbourne.

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR CIGs through 13Z then VFR. E/SE winds 12-14 kts with
gusts to 20 knots from MLB-SUA, slightly lower speeds at DAB and
interior terminals. Some drier air will limit coverage of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Strong high pressure ridge north of the waters
will continue a moderate E/SE wind flow. Pressure gradient will
support 15-20 knots over the southern waters and 10-15 knots
across the north. Choppy seas of 4 to 5 feet will produce poor
boating conditions with seas building to 6 feet tonight over the
offshore/Gulf stream waters. So small craft operators should
exercise caution.

Thu-Sun...The axis of the Atlc high pres ridge will remain draped
over north FL from mid to late week, generating a gentle to
moderate E/SE breeze. Pressure gradient will be support 10-14
knots across the north and 15-19 knots across the southern waters.
So small craft will frequently need to exercise caution south of
Sebastian Inlet but do not expect a Small Craft Advisory will be
needed. Seas 3-5FT Wed, building to 5-6FT in the Gulf Stream by
daybreak Thu into Sat as the persistent erly flow begins to push
increasing swells into the adjacent coastal waters. Isolated
showers from time to time.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record warm minimum temps and the year set:

               February 21     February 22     February 23

Daytona Beach    68-1989         69-2008         69-2013
Orlando Intl     68-1989         69-1945         69-2013
Sanford          66-2002         68-2008         70-2013
Melbourne        70-1989         69-2003         69-2008
Vero Beach       72-1961         73-1961         73-1961
Ft. Pierce       73-1961         73-1961         71-1979

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  80  65 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  86  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  83  70  83  70 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  83  70  82  69 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  86  65  85  65 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  82  70  82  69 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Weitlich



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