Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 251255
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
855 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...10Z Cape sounding shows a PWAT of 1.55 inches with
700/500mb temperatures of +7.1C/-8.9C respectively. The large upper
trough over the Deep South will finally swing northeastward away
from the area later this evening and overnight. Weak surface frontal
boundary across north-central FL pushing steadily southward today
with pre-frontal band of precipitation near the Cape extending
southwestward through south-central Osceola County. Cannot rule out
a few strong storms southward until later this afternoon. Threats
continue to be heavy downpours, lightning, gusty winds and perhaps
some small hail. Some gradual improvement northward as the front
passes with winds becoming W/NW, thinning skies, and drier
conditions overall. Temperatures will still manage L-M80s areawide,
except some U80s possible near Melbourne southward. W-WNW winds will
approach 15 mph with some higher gusts today. Light W/NW winds
tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes and conditions mostly dry.
Skies becoming MClear this evening/overnight. Lows cooler than
recent and generally in the L60s, except M-U60s along the immediate
Treasure Coast, and cannot rule out some U50s northward across north
Lake/inland Volusia counties.

&&

.AVIATION...Weak surface boundary will slowly press southward today
across ECFL. MVFR/IFR conds in SCT-NMRS shra/tsra from mainly KMLB
southward with this area shrinking further southward during the day.
Else, west winds increasing 10-15 kts and gusty, then winds become
light this evening/overnight as the pgrad relaxes.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Weak frontal boundary to press southward
down the coastal waters today. Associated showers and isolated
storms will be concentrated from the Cape southward with this trend
sliding southward thru late day. Gusty SW winds will veer W/WNW over
the next 24 hours. Wind speeds will also gradually decrease thru
late afternoon as the pgrad weakens. Seas currently 5-7 ft offshore
and 3-4 near shore. The present SCA goes thru 20Z/4pm, and would
like to cut back to just cautionary statements for offshore legs at
that time, if applicable, as both winds/seas continue to slowly
decrease. However, dominant wave periods between 4-6 seconds will
make for a choppy ride for small craft boating.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Sedlock/Cristaldi


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