Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 240001
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
Early ZFP/grid update forthcoming to remove the small POPS across
the far south, as the few showers west of Lake Okeechobee are now
dissipating, with all the convection now confined to the MFL CWA.
Also tweaked sky cover grids lower as most areas will be clear
.AVIATION...VFR. AREAS SCT060-070...BECMG SKC AFTER 02Z-03Z.
.MARINE...High pressure building into Florida will produce a light
onshore breeze, with seas 1-2FT near shore and 2-3FT well offshore.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/
TUE...Weak high pressure filling in behind weakening frontal
trough out over the Atlantic will provide a light onshore flow.
Deep moisture is indicted staying over south Florida, but the
models show slightly increased moisture into the central peninsula.
This moisture will be shallow, but MOS PoPs have gone up to 30-40
percent in the south with a slight chance into central sections. A
mid level impulse is indicted rotating through the trough along
the east coast, so cannot discount these higher PoPs. Have
included a mention for slight chance of showers/storms south of
about Kissimmee to Cocoa, except 30 percent around Okeechobee. It
will remain cool/dry aloft, so any afternoon storms could be
WED-THU...Dry pattern continues as a weak upper level low begins
to evolve and drop southeast toward the Bahamas. At the surface,
high pressure ridge to the north will allow onshore flow to
develop and slowly increase. Precipitable water remains low
through the period, around an inch or less, and will therefore
keep rain chances out of the forecast through Thursday. However,
deeper moisture will begin to pool over the Bahamas toward FL
Atlantic coast south of Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures will be
within a few degrees of normal.
FRI-SUN...While the GFS and ECMWF both continue to show a piece of
the upper level low hanging back near the Bahamas this weekend,
considerable uncertainty remains in regards to the expected
evolution of any surface-related feature. The GFS remains the
stronger of the two solutions with a closed surface low moving
retrograding toward the peninsula on Sunday while the ECMWF keeps
the system as an open wave (though it too tries to close off a
surface circulation early next week). Confident that moisture will
increase on Friday and into the weekend, justifying chance PoPs
through the period.
VFR is expected tonight except for a slight chance of storms
mainly south of KVRB to KSUA. On Tue the moisture will increase
slightly and bring a small chance of showers/storms northward to
KMLB. The storms may stay inland of the coastal TAF sites though.
Tonight-Tue...Weak high pressure filling in behind weakening frontal
trough out over the Atlantic will provide a gentle onshore flow
on Tue. Speeds may reach 10-15 knots in the southern waters
especially during the afternoon. A chance for storms also exists
there tonight and Tue.
WED-FRI...High pressure ridge axis extends back north of the area
mid to late week, with onshore flow redeveloping and slowly increasing
into late week up to 15 kts offshore. Seas will reside around 2-3
feet Wednesday, gradually building up to 3-4 feet into late week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 66 85 65 83 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 68 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 71 84 69 83 / 10 20 10 0
VRB 70 84 67 84 / 20 20 10 0
LEE 68 90 67 90 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 68 88 66 87 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 70 89 68 87 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 69 84 67 84 / 20 20 10 0