Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 050818
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
418 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...AXIS OF ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TODAY. MODELS SHOW LOWER OVERALL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FL INITIALLY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTH END OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE (PW
VALUES UP TO 2-2.2 INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE TREASURE COAST AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY BY THE AFT. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE
EXIST SOUTH OF ORLANDO WITH RAIN CHANCES UP TO 40-50 PERCENT...
WHILE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT FIRST FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE BY EARLY
AFT. THEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND WITH
ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR LATER IN THE AFT. A SOMEWHAT
WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL EXIST THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE WITH PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID 90S
EXPECTED OVER URBAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
WHERE  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED TO LATER IN THE AFT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

THU...ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES/LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HAVE POPS RANGING 40-50 PERCENT EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30
PERCENT FOR MARTIN COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S.

FRI-TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING
FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST WILL SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A
DEEPER OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS
SHOULD BE JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
FORM EACH AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF ORLANDO WHERE
GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCTS IN
FOR TIMEFRAME OF BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH LIGHTER S/SW FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING S/SE
INTO THE AFT AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 1- 3 FEET WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4 FT POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WHILE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A WEAKER W/SW STEERING FLOW
MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT A FEW STORMS OFFSHORE INTO THE
AFT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN INVOF FORT PIERCE ST LUCIE INLETS THU...
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SUN. FLOW REMAINS LESS THAN
15KT THU AS IT BACKS SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAINING S-SSW WITH AN
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE W/SW
AROUND 15 KNOTS FRI AND SAT. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS IN
THE 1-3FT RANGE. THIS WIND PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  92  74 /  30  20  50  20
MCO  94  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  10
MLB  92  76  92  75 /  40  20  50  20
VRB  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
LEE  93  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  10
SFB  94  76  93  76 /  30  20  50  20
ORL  94  76  93  76 /  30  20  50  10
FPR  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY


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