Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231917
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS
WAY INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF ENHANCED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO NORTH
FLORIDA.

THE STRONGER NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS IN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE A LITTLE MORE DOMINANT GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE
BOUNDARY...THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

SKIES BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT SO FOG
SEEMS TO BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

THURSDAY...VERY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT IN BRINGING IN ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. HAVE CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ABOVE
5000FT LOOKS MINIMAL AND CAPE VALUES ARE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE 500
J/KG. BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CAP BEING MIXED OUT INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PIVOTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLLISION MAY GIVE ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS A BIT OF A BOOST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
A THUNDER MENTION MAY BE WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BRIDGE ITSELF OVER THE STATE STARTING ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SPIT OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WILL BE DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THIS WEEKEND. UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND SECTIONS WHERE
SEA BREEZE MAY NOT MAKE IT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN-WED (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISES UNDER S/SE FLOW. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND WITH ANY LATE DAY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. HIGHS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH DAYTIME CU PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL040-050 THROUGH SUNSET. PATCHY MVFR FOG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE  ALONG/NORTHWEST OF
I-4 AFTER 24/06Z. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 24/18Z ALONG EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE...MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF
KDED-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS KICKED IN
ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN EAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS NEARSHORE WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE. PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION
AND DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE HIGH INTO THURSDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH A SPEED ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3FT AT 8-9SEC.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY WILL
DECREASE FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  82  64  84 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  64  87  65  88 /   0  20  20  10
MLB  66  83  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  63  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  65  86  65  86 /   0  20  10  10
SFB  65  88  66  88 /   0  20  20  10
ORL  66  86  67  88 /   0  20  20  10
FPR  63  82  65  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....ULRICH





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