Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241342
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL(500MB) HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AND OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL(500MB) TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC
CANADA TO LOUISIANA. DEEP LAYER(1000MB-500MB) SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FEED MOIST GULF OF MEXICO AIR
INTO FLORIDA AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z/8AM UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.6 INCHES TO 1.9
INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLAND...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FLORIDA STRAIT...CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP FEEDING VERY
MOIST AIR INTO FLORIDA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR EARLY CONVECTION WAS
THAT THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING THE DRY MID LEVEL
AIR MASS THAT INFLUENCED WEDNESDAY CONVECTION WAS OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND IT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD AND BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER
MOIST AIR MASS THAT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CUBA AND THE ATLANTIC
AREA BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS.

RADAR MOSAIC LOOP WAS ALREADY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING NORTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THEN SHIFTING TO A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT FROM AROUND THE TAMPA AREA
NORTH. THE STORM/SHOWER MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH IS PUSHED SOUTH BY THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CURRENT AFTERNOON FORECAST OF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST LOOKS GOOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR AND A DEGREE OR
TWO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FORECAST THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND NO NEED TO STRAY FROM THESE TEMPERATURES. LOCAL SMALL
SCALE WRF MODELS SUGGESTING STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
MOVE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EVEN WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. NEXRAD
88D QUIET THUS FAR BUT COULD STILL YET SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WINDS WHEN NOT CALM ARE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT. THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTH. 500 MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WARM AT AROUND -5.5C TO -6C. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK AS LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY MORNING WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH...EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SOONER AND MOVE INLAND A LITTLE QUICKER OVER
THE TREASURE COAST ONCE AGAIN. BOTH THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
WILL MEET UP OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TODAY AND ALONG WITH VARIOUS
OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WE SHOULD SEE POP CHANCES NEAR
40 PERCENT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT BACK TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY CAPE NORTHWARD.

STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS REMAINS VERY LIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH A MAIN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH...THOUGH MANY CELLS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT ERRATIC MOVEMENT
AT TIMES. AS SUCH...A FEW CELLS MAY PUT DOWN 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS
LOCALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS WITH OTHER NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.
OTHER THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
IN STRONGER CELLS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOWER LAYERS DECOUPLE. SOME SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN PRONE AREAS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AT THE COAST
WITH LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 98F-103F
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-SUN...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE
THIS WEEK WITH SFC COOL FRONT NORTH OF FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THIS
WILL KEEP RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGH THE PERIOD NO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN IN THE
MODELS TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE LOW 90S
WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S.

MON-WED...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS BACK DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND KEEPS A DEEPER
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION. GFS PW VALUES SHOW SOME DRYING
OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD MONDAY BEFORE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE NORTHERN
AREAS TUES AND WED. THIS MAY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN POPS BETWEEN 30-50 PERCENT.

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EITHER NOT DEVELOPING OR REMAINING NEAR THE
COAST FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW...MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...ISOLD-SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP 16Z-18Z
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE KMLB-KSUA. THEN STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. VCTS FOR NOW IN TAFS
WITH FUTURE SHIFTS LEFT TO CONSIDER TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ALL CONTINUING
THREATS WITH STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FROM 4NM TO 120NM OFF THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE WITH AN AFTERNOON ONSHORE SEA
BREEZE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOVING STORMS
COMING OFF THE MAINLAND AND IMPACTING LAKES...INDIAN RIVER LAGOON
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNSET/APPROX 8PM.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE MORNING SSW WIND COMPONENT WILL BECOME
ESE/SE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ECSB
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY S/SSW ELSEWHERE. WINDS AGAIN
S/SSW TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AWAY FROM THE COAST 10-15 KTS DUE TO A
NOCTURNAL INCREASE WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY AOB 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY...EXCEPT 10-12 KTS NEAR THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL WIND INCREASE THIS EVENING WILL PUSH WINDS AGAIN
TO AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS AOB 3
FT BUT WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF ISOLD STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS/IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS IS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THOUGH DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT LIKELY ERRATIC AT BEST DUE TO LIGHT NATURE OF STEERING
WINDS. MARINERS NEAR THE COAST WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS MARINE THREATS CONTINUE
TO BE CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
COUPLE OF CELLS MAY MAKE IT BACK TO THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY CAPE NORTHWARD.

FRI-MON...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUT OF THE
S/SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING S/SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST.
FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE. GREATEST THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL BE
FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  76 /  30  30  50  30
MCO  93  76  94  76 /  40  30  50  20
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  20
VRB  89  74  90  75 /  40  20  30  20
LEE  94  77  93  76 /  40  30  50  20
SFB  94  77  94  77 /  40  30  50  20
ORL  93  77  94  77 /  40  30  50  20
FPR  88  74  90  75 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
PUBLIC DESK...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER




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