Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... LARGER SYNOPTIC VIEW SHOWS UNUSUAL JULY
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY SLIDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AS
EXPECTED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PERHAPS SOME
ACTIVITY FROM NORTH FLORIDA BRUSHING N LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND NO SEA
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE...UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK FROM
THE GULF ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

TUESDAY...EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN GIVING ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT
BRINGING A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING MOST OF
THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH TIME ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. POPS 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT ON HAVING A PROPER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRINGING IN A NOTABLE DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EVEN
AT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM VOLUSIA-ORLANDO NORTHWARDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VOLUSIA COAST AS
DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FURTHER SOUTH...BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
BREVARD/OSCEOLA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW
NORMAL POPS THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS REGION THROUGH 23Z. A FEW STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30KTS. PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO N FLORIDA...COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA
MOVING IN FROM GULF COAST AFFECTING KLEE AND ORLANDO SITES AS
EARLY AS 29/12Z. OTHERWISE...UNUSUAL JULY FRONT WILL BRING SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

PREVAILING 10-15KTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUES. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUES AS SOME LONGER SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...OUT OF SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OR SO AND S-SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INLET. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  90  75  92 /  20  50  30  10
MCO  77  92  75  94 /  10  50  30  10
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  20
VRB  76  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  78  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
SFB  78  92  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
ORL  78  92  78  94 /  10  50  30  10
FPR  76  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.