Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250908
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
408 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT. DRIER
CONDITIONS AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL GET SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY DAY`S END...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
UPWARDS OF 1.15 INCHES LATE OVERNIGHT SUN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
WHILE NOT GREAT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE 150 KT
UPPER JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
CHANCE WORDING HERE AFTER 4AM. THE THREAT SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OSCEOLA/BREVARD COUNTIES BY SUNRISE MON MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR HIGHS
WITH M/U 60S FORECAST...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
WITH A CURRENTLY LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE NORTHWEST WINDS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH DURING THE DAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST MAY VEER TO E/ESE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING AND ARE FORECAST
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT BY DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE U40S TO L50S.

MON...RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM A POSITION NEAR CENTRAL
CWA AT SUNRISE. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH AND CHANCE
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...GREATER IMPACT WILL BE ONSET OF
STRONG/GUSTY W/NW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT...DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH WILL LIKELY PROMPT A WIND ADVISORY.

MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION ON 10-15 MPH NW WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF THE
WEEK LATE MON/EARLY TUE. MINS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...BUT
SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S MOST OF REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...EXCEPT
MARTIN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST OVER FL THROUGH MID WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
DOMINATES SOUTHWARD FROM DEEP CUT-OFF CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER (DRY) REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS
REGION LATE TUE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
COOL...GENERALLY 60S FOR MAXS AND 40S FOR MINS...AVERAGING 5-10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LOCATIONS NORTH OF ORLANDO MAY ONLY REACH UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS WED AFTERNOON. REMAINING BREEZY TUE...WITH WINDS STILL
NEAR 10 MPH OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AGAIN IN THE 30S
MANY AREAS.

THU-SAT...TRANSITION TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS INTO TEXAS. PLEASANT PERIOD
IN STORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...
LOWER 70S DAYTIME AND 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT NW
WINDS TODAY...BACKING SW LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. INCREASE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE OVERNIGHT
NORTHWARD.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW CURRENT SCA TO EXPIRE AT 09Z/4AM FOR
OFFSHORE LEGS. WILL ALSO BEGIN PERIOD WITHOUT ANY CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD LATE TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE OVERNIGHT.
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA NW WINDS 10-15 KTS
EARLY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK TO SW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
LIKELY NECESSARY AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE.
SW WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE HERE TO 15-20 KTS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT-DAYBREAK MON MORNING. INITIAL 3-5 FT SEAS FALLING BACK TO
2-4 FT BY THE END OF THE DAY. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD
BACK UP TO 4-5 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

MON-TUE NIGHT...ONSET OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OCCUR FOLLOWING FROPA
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVEOPING
OFFSHORE... THEN ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE POSSIBLE ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF GALE WATCH/WARNING
LATER TODAY. SEAS BUILD 2-4 FT NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT 5-8 FT
OFFSHORE. GRADIENT BRIEFLY LESSENS A LITTLE TUESDAY...BUT STILL SCA
CONDITIONS...THEN INCREASES AGAIN BEHIND REINFORING FRONT LATER
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS AGAIN /BRIEFLY/ FLIRTING WITH MINIMAL GALE
FORCE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-7 FT
OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY WED AND RELAX TO 10-15 KT. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS VEER NE 10 KT WED NIGHT AND
E/SE 5 KT THU. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S ACROSS THE NW
INTERIOR TO L/M 30S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
FRONT WILL ENTER ECFL LATE OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
BUT STRONG MID/UPPER DYNAMICS. THE RESULT COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM BREVARD-OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TWD SUNRISE MON MORNING. DISPERSIONS GENERALLY POOR TODAY.

MON AND TUE...FIRE WX CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...HOWEVER
STRONG WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW RH WILL POSE CONTROL PROBLEMS IF ANY
WILDFIRES OCCUR.

MON...STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS DEVELOP WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
LIKELY AND VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES...HOWEVER MIN RH LIKELY TO
REMAIN 45-50 PERCENT.

TUE...MIN RH LIKELY TO FALL TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 40 PERCENT WITH
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  51  64  38 /   0  40  10   0
MCO  66  52  64  41 /   0  30  10   0
MLB  65  49  69  41 /   0  20  30   0
VRB  66  47  73  41 /   0  10  40   0
LEE  65  52  64  42 /   0  40  10   0
SFB  65  52  67  41 /   0  30  10   0
ORL  66  54  66  42 /   0  30  10   0
FPR  66  47  75  42 /   0  10  40   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....SPRATT





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