370
FNUS73 KMPX 111229
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Ordway Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
729 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Ordway Rx burn expect to see mostly clear skies and
humidity near 40 percent at ignition time falling to the mid 20s
percent this afternoon as temperatures climb into the 70s. Surface
level winds will be primarily out of the west at 5-10mph today,
perhaps a bit more northwesterly at ignition time with limited
gusting today peaking at around 20mph during the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................39 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 6 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /9400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /95900 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (111100 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 18 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  64  67  70  72  73  74  75  75  75  72  66
RH..............39  34  30  26  25  25  25  25  26  27  30  38
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   10  10  12  10  10  12  10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.8   12  13  15  16  17  17  16  16  14  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.8 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.9 7.4 7.3 5.5 1.3 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.7   9   13  15  16  16  17  18  18  13  12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 12 mph becoming around 10
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (87500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Max 78.
RH..................Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    north late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (95100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest 15
                    to 17 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dunleavy
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413762.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org