809
FNUS73 KMPX 081127
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Sibley SE Prairie...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on May 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Sibley SE Prairie burn, relative humidity
values will fall to 35-40% this afternoon with temperatures
warming into the lower 70s. Winds will remain calm through 9AM, with
east-northeasterly winds gradually increasing to around 10 mph through
the morning. A few gusts up to 20 mph are possible during the
afternoon. About a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm also
exists this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................83 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 2 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming east
                    6 to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /1400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /99600 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (61000 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 18 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky cover.......PC  MCR PC  PC  PC  MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                                        SCH CHC
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
Temp............48  51  56  60  62  64  66  68  70  71  71  69
RH..............83  77  66  60  56  52  48  42  39  38  39  44
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   3   6   8   10  13  13  13  13  13  12  9
20 FT wind gust.6   5   9   13  16  20  20  20  20  20  17  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.9 5.0 6.6 7.1 3.8 2.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.5   5   7   12  16  18  17  17  17  17  18  16
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 16 mph shifting to the northeast 17
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Grunzke
Requested by...B. Thompson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413462.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL becky.thompson@state.mn.us