303
FNUS73 KMPX 131312
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Mahoney WMA...MnDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
812 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For Mahoney WMA, Winds will remain somewhat light today out of
the north at around 10 mph. Temperatures climb into the lower
70s which will help lower RH values to near 30 percent by this
afternoon. RH values bottom out in upper 20 percent range.
Otherwise expect filtered sunshine with hazy wildfire
smoke.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Areas of smoke late in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................53 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /14100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /77200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  62  65  67  70  70  71  72  71  71  70  65
RH..............53  44  40  36  32  31  29  29  28  28  29  35
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  12  12  13  12  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.13  13  14  15  16  16  16  16  16  16  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.0 3.4 0.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  12  14  15  15  15  15  16  15  16  15  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 8 to 9 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (69300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 16 mph shifting to the northeast 10
                    to 13 mph overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Kevin Freking
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413942.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.freking@state.mn.us