546
FNUS73 KMPX 171320
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Gopher Ridge WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
820 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Gopher Ridge WMA, any stray showers are moving out this
morning, allowing skies to mostly clear out. Temperatures will
make a run up into the upper 80s depending on how much persistent
sunlight we see today. This would allow RH values to drop as low
as the upper 20s by this afternoon. Winds will be light this
morning, but will pick up in strength this afternoon out of the
south, with gusts up to 15-20 mph possible at times.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........75 at ignition...Max 87.
RH..................49 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /26400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /125600 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............75  79  82  84  85  87  87  87  86  82  77  75
RH..............49  43  38  33  30  26  26  28  30  35  43  46
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  12  13  14  13  12  10  12  14  15
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  18  20  21  20  18  17  18  22  23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.7 3.8 5.0 6.3 7.4 7.9 7.5 4.0 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  13  13  15  16  17  18  20  18  18  18  22
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Min 65.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (63400 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
                    (16500 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (7600 knot-ft) late in the night early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west 17 to 20 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (107600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (105700
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 20 mph shifting to the west 23 to
                    30 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Louise Spiczka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414505.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL louise.spiczka@state.mn.us