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000
FXUS61 KALY 240515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TOMORROW AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...COLD FRONT WAS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KALB
WHERE A RENEWED REGION OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS COLD
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
APPARENT...ITS ALSO AIDED BY THE UPPER JET IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL
RAISE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND EVENTUALLY LESS HUMID AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SO DID INCLUDE MORE
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN RENSSELAER AND
BERSKSHIRE COUNTIES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH
NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL.

THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS.

LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN THIS SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR AFFECTS ON THE RIVERS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COOLER LESS HUMID
AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV