Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO COMMENCE. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTIME HOURS. THE WEATHER WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH A WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH VARYING
TEMPERATURES. IN THE CAPITAL REGION...THANKS TO A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
QUITE WARM...AROUND 70. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER AREAS HAD MUCH LESS
WIND...OR NONE...AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED CLOSER TO
60.

FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...WHILE LOWERING SOME SELECT OUTLYING AREAS A FEW
DEGREES.

RADARS REMAINED QUITE BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SO LEFT SLIGHT POPS
THERE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY THIN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SPREADING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
IN OUTLYING SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO MID 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER COMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE RISE
AND THERE WILL INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE REGION IN A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS CANADA AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHER FACTORS THAT WOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ARE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IN FAVOR IS STRENGTHENING
850 MB WINDS WHICH WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES SO STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MENTIONED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS SOME NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORK TOGETHER. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS RESIDES. WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT WET WEATHER AT LEAST INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH IN THE 60S
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINLY GO LOW CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE COOL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 80S AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY WITH MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS AND SCT CUMULUS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY THIS
MORNING (BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL AT
KPSF/KPOU FOR SOME FOG AND A VFR STRATUS DECK SPREADING NORTHWARD
DUE TO MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
STRATUS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LATE IN THE DAY
ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF AFTER
21Z...AND INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 30/21Z-22Z AND 31/03Z-04Z. AT KPOU THE VCSH
STARTS AT 23Z WITH THE PROB30 GROUP FROM 30/23Z TO 31/05Z. AFTER
THE THREAT OF TSTMS...HAVE FORECAST CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVES IN.

THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS AT
KALB. DURING SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AT ALL
THE TAF SITES AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATRUDAY EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS
AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA
SUN-MON AM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON AFTN-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEATHER
WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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