Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 182133
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
433 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair and cold conditions to the
eastern New York and western New England tonight.   Warmer and
milder weather returns tomorrow, as a low pressure system and a
warm front over the Midwest and Ohio Valley bring some rain
into the region during the afternoon and into the evening. Above
normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday with a chance of
showers mainly north and west of the Capital Region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS of 430 PM EST...High pressure will ridge in from the Mid
Atlantic Region early this evening, and then slowly drift east
of NJ, and south of Long Island tonight. The stratocumulus will
dissipate quickly, and then there will be a period of
clear/mostly clear skies with light to calm winds and
radiational cooling occurring.

We are expecting temps to drop off closer to the colder GFSMOS
mins, or even a few degrees below it with teens north of the
Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires, and mainly lower
to mid 20s from these areas south and east.

Some cirrus may start to quickly move in from the south and west
towards daybreak. A light south to southwest breeze will also
commence due to the return flow from the retreating sfc high in
the Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...The mid and upper level flow shifts from zonal to
southwesterly, as ridging centered over the western Atlantic
Ocean or southeast of the Carolinas and Georgia begins to build
in. The low to mid level warm advection begins, as a warm front
lifts north/northeast from the OH Valley amd the mid Atlantic
Coast. Clouds will rapidly thicken and lower across the forecast
area from the southwest to northeast. Light rain should
overspread the region in the late morning into the early pm.
Temps should rise quickly with the increasing south to southwest
flow. We are not expecting any shallow cold air to stay in
place. There could be a brief mix with a little wet snow in a
few spots before changing to liquid rain. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 40s in the valley areas, and upper 30s to around
40F over the hills and some of the sheltered valleys. Southerly
winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph. Rainfall amounts will range
from a tenth to a quarter of an inch with the higher amounts
west of the Hudson River Valley.

Mon night...The warm front associated with low pressure moving
into the western Great Lakes Region will keep periods of mainly
light rain going across the region. The strongest isentropic
lift on the 285/290K surfaces will be north and west of the
Capital Region. The highest pops were maintained in these areas.
Low temps will not drop off too much in the warm advection
regime, and will steady and slowly rise from the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Patchy fog is likely due to snow melt, and the
saturated low-levels.

Tue to Tue night...An H500 closed anticyclone continues to ridge
in from off the lower and mid Atlantic Coast. Lows pressure
tracks northeast of MI, as the warm front lifts through the area
on TUE. Some scattered showers may linger north of the Mohawk
Valley and Capital Region. Patchy fog will be a problem in the
morning with the snow melt. We will continue to monitor if any
hydro problems start to arise TUE pm into TUE night especially
in terms of ice break up and snow melt. Total rainfall will
generally be a half an inch or less over the entire area by TUE
pm, except over the western Mohawk River Valley and southern
Dacks where a half an inch to an inch or so is possible. Temps
soar above normal with H850 temp anomalies above normal on the
GEFS. Max temps may get to record levels on TUE and TUE night in
terms of high and record high mins. Max temps will were blended
and shaded to warmer GFSMOS and ECMMOS guidance with mid 50s to
mid 60s for highs, and mid 40s to lower 50s for lows.

See our Hydro and Climate sections with more details...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active weather pattern with above average temperatures is
expected during the long term period.

Wednesday...Strong high pressure off the East Coast will result in
dry conditions for the first half of Wednesday. A cold front will
progress through the region during the late afternoon bringing a
chance for some rain showers. Strong low level southwest flow will
bring near record warmth to eastern New York/western New England
during the afternoon with highs possibly reaching the low 70s over
the Mid-Hudson Valley and Capital Region. The daily high temperature
record at Albany International Airport is 65F (1981) on February 21.

Thursday through Saturday...There will be a chance for rain on
Thursday as the slow moving cold front sags to the Southeast through
the region. High pressure will pass to the North of the region on
Friday which should could keep most of the region dry. Have kept
slight chance PoPs in the forecast for now with an approaching piece
of lower-tropospheric energy. Chances for rain showers increase into
Saturday as the aforementioned energy approaches from the west.
Forecast confidence is low for the latter part of the week and into
the weekend due to a lack of model-to-model consensus. Highs will be
in the 40s with the exception of the Adirondacks staying cooler in
the upper 30s. Lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Intervals of ceilings between 2500-3500 feet this afternoon ending
by early evening. Just a few to scattered high clouds tonight and
Monday morning.

Winds will generally be northwest at 6-12 kts with gusts around 20
Kt at KPSF and KALB. Winds will diminish this evening and become
south at 4-8 kts tonight. South winds increase to around 10 Kt
through Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...FG.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures will start to warm back up tomorrow with some
additional rainfall as well. A warm front will bring a few
tenths to a half an inch of rainfall Monday afternoon into
Monday night with the higher amounts northwest of the Capital
District.

An additional a tenth to half an inch is possible TUE-TUE night,
again with the higher totals over the northern basins.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated by Tuesday into
Wednesday, so we will be monitoring for runoff due to snowmelt
and possible ice jam movement.

The latest MMEFS today are indicating river rises with some
minor flooding possible due to snowmelt and rainfall this week,
especially in the Mohawk Rive basin and Hope in the southern
Adirondacks. Ice jams will likely start moving due to the mild
temperatures and could increase the flood potential in some
areas. However, there is still considerable uncertainty
regarding how much snowmelt occurs. The rainfall will likely be
limited over most of the HSA, except the Mohawk Valley into the
southern Adirondacks.  A Flood Watch maybe needed later in
time, but the latest NERFC forecasts have no points reaching
flood stage up to 7 am WED. We will continue to monitor
carefully.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Warmth is possible TUE into WED.

Feb 20th
The record highs:
KALB 66F set in 1930
KGFL 58F set in 1981
KPOU 63F set in 2016

Feb 21st
The record highs:
KALB 65F set in 1981
KGFL 65F set in 1981
KPOU 67F set in 1953


RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/Wasula
CLIMATE...Wasula



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