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000
FXUS61 KALY 200605
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN...WITH CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...500 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO S-SW...SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
ON THURSDAY THAN RECENT DAYS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS
WON/T BE AS COOL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CLOSE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...THERE WON/T BE MUCH
FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
DEWPOINTS STARTING TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT MIGHT BE THE AREA WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
AREAS...AND KEPT POPS LOW ELSEWHERE.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT HAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE ISSUES MOVING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TROUGHS THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL OSCILLATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HAVE KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE
WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING SUMMER WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...80S
ARE EVEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEMPERATURES UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPSF DUE TO FOG
EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY P6SM SKC AT THE
TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE CALM UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE...
THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS AFTER 14Z. THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY AM FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING DRY AND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD
OCCUR EACH NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS
OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS