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000
FXUS61 KALY 270602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EST...SKIES ARE FAIRLY OVERCAST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME FLURRIES OCCURRING IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE FLURRIES ARE VERY LIGHT AND SEEM TO BE
DISSIPATING DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE. AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WON/T DROP
TOO QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 15 F FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS... WITH LOWS -10 F TO
ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A
FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTERED OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE HOWEVER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY
IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME MVFR AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS