Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 200226
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass through our area tonight, but dry
conditions will prevail due to limited moisture. Another area of
high pressure will then build in from the south and west Friday
into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry and mild
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM EDT...Temperatures varying quite a bit across the
southern part of the area where some decoupling of winds has
occurred and resulted in rapid cooling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. However, much of the area experiencing milder 50s to
lower 60s due to a light persistent breeze ahead of a weak cold
front approaching from the west. Based on surface obs, the front
appears to be located just west of the Capital District and
Hudson Valley. The front will continue to track eastward across
our region late this evening into the overnight hours. Only
impact will be an increase in mainly high level clouds, as there
is very limited moisture associated with the front.

Behind the frontal passage, winds will shift from south-southwest
to north-northwest. With a persistent breeze expected tonight,
low temperatures will only be in the 40s across much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
North to northwest winds should be breezy Friday and there are
indications that a considerable boundary layer thermal gradient
hangs up across our area with the colder air in northern areas.
The north to northwest winds and cold advection should limit
warming across our area. So, even the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT could see temperatures on the cooler side of guidance. Highs
Friday in the mid to upper 60s but near 70 southern areas and
lower 60s northern areas.

The cooler air retreats north Saturday as upper ridging builds
in from the west. More sunshine and increasing warm advection
will help temperatures reach the lower to mid 70s in most areas
but around 70 northern areas both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday
night lows will be in the 40s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Longwave pattern will trend more amplified during the beginning of
next work week. This will occur as a strong Pacific jet carves out a
deep trough over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest which
eventually becomes a full-latitude trough extending down into the
Deep South. Lower-tropospheric low pressure is expected to form on
the downstream side of the trough, with the flow throughout the
column becoming more meridional with time. Appears that there is
potential for one or more swaths of heavier rainfall downstream of
the trough axis where the meridional flow sets up. The location of
the upper trough axis is still in question as there are multiple
shortwaves involved, leading to a complex interaction. The leading
edge of the height falls will approach the Northeast by Monday,
deamplifying as it does so. An associated band of showers is
depicted by some of the medium-range models, but trends have been
slower/weaker as the system approaches the local area. The southern
portion of this lead trough is expected to cut off over the Deep
South Monday and get absorbed into the more amplified portion of the
trough by Tuesday and Wednesday. The interaction of these features
seems to be the key in whether the longwave trough becomes a bit
more progressive (leading to the quicker 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF solutions
which results in wet weather by Tuesday/Tuesday night) or deeper and
slower (as depicted by the 00Z ECMWF which keeps most of Tuesday dry
and appears quite wet on Wednesday). Timing differences aside, this
pattern certainly bears close watching for heavy rainfall potential,
although given our very dry antecedent conditions, the ground can
take a lot of rainfall presently. Temperatures are expected to
remain well below normal at the start of the long term period,
trending back to near normal by mid-week as the trough
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front approaching from central NY will cross the region
tonight, but due to very limited moisture, there will only be
some patchy mid/high level clouds into the overnight hours with
VFR conditions prevailing. Fog is not expected to develop
tonight due to winds remaining elevated associated with the
frontal passage. High pressure will then build in from the south
and west on Friday resulting in clear skies and continued VFR
conditions.

Winds will initially be southwest around 5-10 kt, then shifting
to the north-northwest behind the cold front later tonight.
Winds speeds will increase by mid to late Friday morning once
better mixing commences, with around 10 kt gusting to near 20 kt
occasionally.

Outlook...

Friday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
South to southwest winds will gust to around 25 mph this
afternoon...

RH values will dip to between 30 and 40 percent Friday
afternoon with North to northwest winds gusting to around 20-25
mph...

A weak cold front will pass through our area this evening, but
dry conditions will prevail due to limited moisture. Another
area of high pressure will then build in from the south and west
Friday into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry
and mild conditions.

Minimum RH values Friday and Saturday will be 30 to 40 percent.
Rh values will increase to around 70 to 100 percent tonight and
Saturday night. Because of these low RH values and gusty winds,
an SPS will be issued for the entire forecast area for the day
Friday.

Winds will continue gusting around 25 mph through this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the west at 5 to 15 mph tonight.
Winds Friday are expected to be north to northwest around 15
mph and there could be some gusts to 20-25 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No precipitation is expected through at least the weekend
thanks to persistent high pressure, with river/stream flows
remaining at normal to below normal seasonal levels.

The next chance of rainfall arrives early next week, as a
widespread rainfall is possible associated with a slow-moving
frontal system. It is much too early for specific details, but
some heavy rain may occur in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
frame.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/JVM
NEAR TERM...JPV/JVM
SHORT TERM...NAS/JVM
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM


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