Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
EXPANDING AREA OF MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND PENETRATING INTO NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY.  THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WAS MIGRATING ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF METEOROLOGICAL
ITEMS. FIRST...SEEDER-FEEDER OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...THE BAND/S/ OF
SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. LASTLY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MOS GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE GFSMOS IS MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE NAM. WHILE A
COMPROMISE WAS UTILIZED...THE LAMP/LAV WHICH IS DERIVED FROM THE
GFS IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE 00Z MOS. SO WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A WARM FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WARM FRONT...RATHER MOIST LOWER LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. CROSS SECTIONS
REVEAL MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW THE INVERSION SITUATED
BETWEEN H750-H800 /FAIRLY DRY ABOVE THE INVERSION/. BUFKIT
PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA SHOW SUFFICIENT QG OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THIS
LOWER LEVEL ALONG WITH INCREASE WIND MAGNITUDES/SHEAR. ALL OF
THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TOWARD THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
FORMATION. THE COMPLICATED ASPECT WILL BE THE THERMAL COLUMN. WHILE
THE OVERALL MEAN TEMPS WILL BE WARMING...TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE
MAY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE DRIZZLE TO BE FREEZING TONIGHT. WHILE NO HEADLINES
AT THE PRESENT TIME...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
PER THE WPC PROBABILITY OF FZRA...THE HIGHER POPS WERE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY /20-40 PERCENT/. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS H850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT TO OUR SURFACE TEMPS...A VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS
REMAINS IN PLACE. SO CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
MORE DRIZZLE AS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES. HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH MID 30S
INTO THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WE CONCLUDE THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE AS WE TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. DRIZZLE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE FORECAST
TEMPS AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP AT
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. POTENT UPPER
JET AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE SURFACE FEATURES
SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL LINGER AS POST FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER ELEVATED. H850 TEMPS EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...BY DAYS END THOSE
VALUES RANGE FROM -10C TO -12C NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO NEAR 0C FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CT. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AOA H900 WHERE M-U 20KTS OF WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
RESIDE. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A RATHER BRISK AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO ALIGN THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO ENHANCE
WIND CHANNELING THE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON /AT THE LATEST/ BEFORE SETTLING BACK
DUE TO THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC-
SLGHT POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY WILL END....AS HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTES CLEARING SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REACH THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...A STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
TRANSITION...BUT WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE
IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING
MUCH QPF IN GENERAL. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH
TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN HIGH THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR 30 FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AT
SOME POINT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PASS BY THE REGION...PERHAPS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
RAIN...BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND. THESE CLOUDS ARE LEFT OVER
FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE MVFR AT KPSF DUE TO BKN-OVC
STRATOCU CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KPSF BY 09Z...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER SITES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...WITH W-NW WINDS AROUND 6 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...AND VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT SE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS.

MOST SITES LOOK TO SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC BY
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING ON SAT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR BY LATE SAT NIGHT FOR ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



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