Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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613
FXUS61 KALY 062354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION WITH CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF WET WEATHER. THIS STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY DURING
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOTHERS DAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO WORK FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S
WITH RH VALUES 75-90 PERCENT.

H20 VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO REVEAL OUR PERSISTENT QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR DELMARVA WITH DEFORMATION AXIS
ALONG I81 CORRIDOR LIFTING NORTHWARD. AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SEEN JUST
OFFSHORE WAS ADVANCING NORTH-NORTHWEST. PER THE HRRR...SEEMS THIS
WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR MORE RAIN DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD ROTATE FURTHER WEST WITH SOMEWHAT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE OMEGA PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS OUR UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH AND LIFT EASTWARD.
SO IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A RATHER
SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. SO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE /SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE/...AND SLIGHTLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WITH 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THIS UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSIVELY MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE BEST QG FORCING RIDES MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL
WITH SHOWALTER VALUES REMAINING RATHER POSITIVE. SO WE WILL
WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY INTO THE 40S.

FOR MOTHERS DAY, DEPARTING SHOWERS EAST OF I87 THEN AN ISAALOBARIC RISE
COUPLET MOVES ACROSS FOR RATHER BRISK CONDITIONS TO EVOLVE. PER
BUFKIT PROFILES MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WE TAP INTO THE 30KT RANGE AS
THESE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. H850 TEMPS
DROP BACK TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DACKS WITH LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE ACHIEVED AROUND THE NOON
HOUR WITH STEADY TO SLOWING FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT COULD BECOME QUITE CHILLY
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
OFF ONTARIO MAY KEEP IN THE CLOUDS A BIT LONGER AND SOME SHOWERS
YET THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS TO BE BELOW 5K FEET SO WE WILL
KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST 06/12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS MERIDIONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 CONUS. FOR OUR
REGION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A LARGE
FAVORABLE REGION OF SOME UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY INTO MID MAY.

OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TRAILING W-E STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ESTABLISHED
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS THE REGION AT TIMES ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION AS WE GO TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO
LOW MVR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) OR EVEN IFR. IF ANYTHING THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR LOWER CLOUDS BASES DUE TO STRATUS COOL DOWN...DESPITE
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE BY
MIDDAY...EXCEPT LINGERING AT THE HIGH END LEVEL OF MVFR AT KPSF.
THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...BUT FOR NOW...ONLY
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT KPSF AND KPOU AFTER 12Z SAT.

THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO EAST 5-10KTS DURING THE
EVENING...LIGHT MORE VARIABLE 3-5KTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CULPRIT FOR THIS AVIATION ANNOYANCE CONTINUES TO BE A CUTOFF LOW
TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE (A COLD FRONT) WILL LIKELY
BRING YET MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NUMEROUS SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0
ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT SOGGY CONDITIONS AND CLOUD COVERAGE HAS KEPT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ELEVATED TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION RATHER MOIST. WINDS INCREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINIMAL HYDROLOGY RELATED ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LATEST REGIONAL BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE ONE HALF OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES. THE ONLY SLIGHT CONCERN HAS BEEN TIDAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE
HUDSON AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER DELMARVA ALONG WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BRING WATER LEVELS TOWARD ACTION
STAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



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