Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 011729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACRS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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