Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 260005
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight.  The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT... not much change to the forecast at this time
with weak frontal boundary drifting southward with some isolated
showers. The other batch of showers across Litchfield County
continues to dissipate. So just FEW-SCT clouds, mainly the mid
level variety, to continue this evening. A period of clearing is
expected overnight before some increase in clouds arrives from
upstream.

Prev Disc...A weak cold front continues to move across eastern NY
and western New England with a band of clouds and some isolated
showers/sprinkles from the Capital Region north...and a wind shift
from the south to southwest to the west to northwest. Some wind
gusts have been close to 30 kts...and temps spiked into the upper
80s to 90F /KPOU/ ahead of the front. The low-levels remain dry
with sfc dewpts in the 40s to l50s. That will change FRI into the
holiday weekend.

The boundary will stall over eastern NY and south-central New
England. There is no clean synoptic forcing with the front...so we
expect the isolated showers to die off with the daytime
heating...and variable cloudy conditions to persist tonight. The
winds will become light and variable which will allow temps to
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s in many of the valley
spots...and upper 40s to mid 50s over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tomorrow...Most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it
will take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.

Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.

Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpts into
the lower to mids 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.

Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to continue with the potential for some
mist/fog mainly at KGFL. There will be an increase in clouds late
tonight and through Thursday along with the chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon. For now, we will place VCSH.

Winds will diminish from the westerly direction around 10kts to
light and variable tonight. Then a gradual shift to the south-
southeast less than 10kts Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.

The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.

A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.

As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula


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