096
FXUS61 KALY 091917
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
317 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will gradually develop this evening into the overnight
with the greatest likelihood from around the Capital District
south and east, as low pressure passes to our south across the
mid Atlantic region. Mostly cloudy, cool and showery conditions
are expected Friday through the upcoming weekend, as a series of
upper level disturbances move across the area. Temperatures
will be below normal, with more clouds than sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Satellite imagery indicating the cumulus/stratocumulus clouds
that were in place early have dissipated enough for sunshine to
break out across the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into the
Taconics/Berkshires. However, high/mid level clouds are already
increasing farther south in the eastern Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley. Still, there will still be at least a few more hours of
sunshine across the central part of the area, with some breaks
north as well. Temperatures have risen into the upper 50s to mid
60s.

A wave of low pressure will track eastward along a west-east
oriented surface front across the mid Atlantic states this
evening, with an inverted surface trough extending north/west
from the low into central NY. This will provide enough forcing
for showers to develop from SW to NE this evening. Will mention
likely to categorical PoPs from around the Capital District
south/west. With surface ridging extending southward from Quebec
into northern/eastern New England, there will be a dry layer to
displace which could limit the showers from advancing farther
north/east than the Capital District where we will continue to
mention chance PoPs. While there is a cool air mass in place,
the clouds/showers will result in lows fairly close to normal
ranging from upper 30s in the coldest spots to upper 40s.

Showers continue into Friday, as another wave of low pressure
develops along the front in the mid Atlantic region, with the
inverted surface trough expected to shift slightly westward. So
this should result in the area of widespread showers gradually
moving west mostly into central NY. So there will likely be
drying for much of the area except for the western Mohawk Valley
and eastern Catskills where showers will linger the longest and
take most of the day for to shift west. Still, with an upper
level trough overhead there could be some light scattered
showers elsewhere along with mostly cloudy skies. Highs should
only range from the upper 40s to to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis moves through during the first half of
Fri night, then quickly shifts east off the coast overnight. So
there may be isolated to scattered showers around through around
midnight, with drying overnight due to some short wave ridging.
Lows should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s under partly/mostly
cloudy skies.

On Sat it looks like we will be between systems, with short
wave ridging in place ahead of a deepening upper low approaching
from the Great Lakes. As the leading short wave associated with
the trough moves in, chances for showers will gradually
increase from NW to SE mainly during the afternoon to early
evening hours. Most of the day looks dry for areas south/east of
Albany. Temperatures will remain cool, with 850 mb temperature
anomalies hovering near -1 to -2 STDEV. Highs look to mainly
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

As the upper trough moves in Sat night, scattered showers are
expected to develop again. The showers should be mainly light.
With mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures will be similar to
recent nights ranging from upper 30s to upper 40s.

An associated surface wave will track from west/central PA Sat
night to near the Delmarva Sun morning. Another inverted surface
trough will extend north/west from the wave into central NY
during the day Sun. This provide additional chances for showers,
although the more widespread showers should be in closer
proximity to the trough in the western part of the area such as
the western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. It will be
another cool day with mostly cloudy skies. Highs range from the
lower 50s to lower 60s.

The upper low shifts east off the coast Sun night, with some
short wave ridging moving in. This should result in clearing
skies with lows a bit cooler with upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures finally look to moderate to near normal levels on
Mon. A warm front approaching from the west may bring some
showers during the afternoon. The pattern is then expected to
turn more unsettled from Tue through Thu, although forecast
confidence decreases with regards to details. A
warmer/seasonable air mass should be in place by Tue, with a SW
flow aloft over region and an upper low tracking east across
central Quebec. At the surface, a cold front may bring showers
and some thunderstorms.

On Wed, the front pushes south, but another upper level trough
is expected to move east across the southern Appalachians, which
could spawn a surface cyclone near the old front. This system
may get close enough for some rainfall, but there are
differences in the guidance with regards to storm
track/evolution. Will continue to mention chance PoPs for now.

Forecast confidence remains low into Thursday, although the
latest guidance indicates it may end up being on the drier side
due to possible ridging. Temperatures expected to remain near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Flying conditions are VFR at all TAF sites
as of 1:30 PM EDT, and should remain VFR through this evening.
SCT to BKN mid-level clouds between 4000 and 6000 ft expected
through the evening, with some partial clearing possible for a
few hours around sunset at ALB/PSF/GFL.

Tonight, an area of low pressure tracking to our south will
bring showers to the region. Showers begin from south to north,
and GFL may stay dry until after sunrise Friday. At ALB/POU/PSF,
expecting MVFR cigs and visibilities with the showers tonight.
POU may see a period of steadier rain the second half of
tonight. Can`t completely rule out brief periods of IFR cigs or
vsbys with any pockets of heavier rain (best chance would be at
POU/PSF), but this does not look widespread enough to include in
the TAFs. Showers continue through tomorrow morning, although
general trend will be for improvement through the morning,
especially after 15z. POU/PSF will retain their MVFR cigs
through the end of the TAF period, but ALB/GFL will likely see
VFR conditions after 15z except during any showers.

Winds will be from the north/northeast this afternoon and
evening at 5-10 kt, switching to the east overnight tonight at
5-10 kt, which will continue through the end of the TAF period.
A few gusts to around 15 kt are possible tonight and tomorrow
morning at POU/PSF.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Main