Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182325 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ADVANCES TO THE AZ/NM
BORDER BY 20/00Z...IT WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALIGNED
NEAR 100W...EASTWARD AND PERMIT A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED.

AT THE SURFACE...AREA TERMINALS WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO THE WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

SOME RURAL TERMINALS /KACT...KAFW/ MIGHT SEE 5-7SM HAZE AROUND SUNRISE
(12-14Z) DUE TO SMALL T/DP DIFFERENCES. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF RELEASE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

DFW EXTENDED WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF ISOLD-SCTD
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20/12Z (SUNDAY). 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AND SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST
MAY DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITY WILL NOT BECOME TOO RESTRICTED
SATURDAY MORNING SINCE ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS WARM AIR FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU STREAMS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS A
PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BASED
ON THE AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY
AND RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND NO RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE
DRY LINE ON THURSDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND BRING
LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  78  61  78  63 /   5   5  20  30  30
WACO, TX              54  77  60  78  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             52  77  57  76  60 /   5   5  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            53  78  59  79  62 /   5   5  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          53  75  57  77  61 /   5   5  20  30  40
DALLAS, TX            57  78  62  78  64 /   5   5  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           53  77  58  79  62 /   5   5  10  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         56  77  59  78  62 /   5   5  10  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  58  77  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  77  58  76  60 /   5   5  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





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