000
FXUS64 KFWD 231356 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE MORNING POPS SOUTHWARD DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUATION
SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS STORM SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ.
HOWEVER...MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACTIVITY ALIVE DESPITE THE LOSS IN LIFT. MAY HAVE TO DO
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO PLACE POPS IN THE FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH
IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS RICH
GULF MOISTURE HAS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS
TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z /10 AM CDT/ BEFORE THE STRATUS LIFTS
AND SCATTERS OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...
BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 4-5SM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT.

SCATTERED CUMULI ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUN
PROMOTES MIXING WITH CLOUD BASES RISING TO OVER 3000 FT. A REPEAT
OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BKN012-BKN018 FORECAST AFTER 10Z /5AM CDT/ FRIDAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TODAY
WILL BE LIMITED. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE KPRX AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF DFW
METRO AIRPORTS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN
CASE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. 09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.

THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.

WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  72  86  71  85 /  20  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              90  73  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             85  68  81  69  82 /  40  20  20  10  20
DENTON, TX            87  70  84  70  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  70  85  70  84 /  30  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            90  73  88  72  87 /  20  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           89  71  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  71  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  72  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  71  86  70  84 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/85