Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 012021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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