Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 030431
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH CLEAR SKIES EVENTUALLY BEING
INVADED BY STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA TERMINALS...WITH FTW AND AFW
REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WE WILL INDICATE A 11Z OSET IN KACT AND 13Z IN THE METROPLEX...AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 15-16Z.

OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO
15 KT. FOR WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE WACO
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION ON THE FORECAST.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVED THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.