Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 270916
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
416 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will continue through the first half of the week
across North and Central TX with a few days during the mid-week
time frame remaining mostly dry. The latter half of the week will
feature rain chances mainly along and north of the I-20/I-30
corridors.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Surface analysis and radar data indicate that an outflow boundary
from Sunday`s convection across Oklahoma has surged southward to
near the Interstate 20 corridor. No new convection has developed
during the overnight hours along this boundary likely due to the
stable nature of the near surface layer. Upper air analysis and
water vapor imagery revealed that North and Central TX remains
wedged between the upper tropospheric trough out across the
Permian Basin and a mid-level ridge currently across the Ark-La-
Tex.

For Today---A majority of the activity across the Big Country and
Concho Valley should remain to the west of the area as the upper
trough churns across West TX. In addition, a weakening convective
complex was noted across the southern Ozarks which may help to
reinforce northerly/northeasterly winds behind the outflow
boundary currently along the I-20 corridor. This boundary will
likely be the primary mechanism for mesoscale ascent during the
late morning and afternoon/evening hours. The latest runs of the
RAP/HRRR initiate convection towards mid-morning along the Red
River, however, given the location of the boundary at this hour,
it is possible that convection may actually fire a bit further to
the south. Additional diurnally driven convection will be
possible, mainly along and northeast of a Graham to Waco to
Centerville line with daytime heating. The lack of deep layer
shear should preclude widespread severe weather. Cloud to ground
lightning, brief bouts of heavy rain and gusty winds will be
possible.

For Tuesday---A shortwave trough will dive southward through the
Ozarks around the northeastern periphery of a building mid-level ridge.
This trough will drag an attendant cold front towards the Red
River resulting in continued rain chances through Tuesday. Not all
locations will see rain and based on latest high-resolution model
guidance, it appears that coverage only warrants at 30 to 40 PoP
at this time. Rain chances will be highest early Tuesday morning
across northern zones, before shifting further to the south later
in the day ahead of the boundary. Deep layer shear is expected to
remain unimpressive and this will limit storm organization. The
storm hazards on Tuesday will again be limited to lightning, heavy
rain and sub-severe convective winds.

For Wednesday and Thursday---Mostly dry conditions as the ridge
builds a little closer to North and Central TX inducing northwest
flow aloft. There are some indications in model guidance that an
MCS may develop to the north of the area. Inspection of the low
level wind field during the early morning hours on Wednesday and
Thursday reveal that the overall magnitude of the Corfidi vectors
remains fairly small. As a result, it`s unlikely that this
activity makes it to the south of the Red River. We will monitor
trends in the model output, especially if the ridge struggles to
build as currently expected and/or low level flow is stronger.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Sunday)...
For Friday---the threat for rainfall will increase mainly across
our Red River counties as the northwest flow regime continues.
With around 80 knots of flow aloft, good northward moisture
transport and sufficient heating, there should be several rounds
of thunderstorms across the central plains. The low level wind
field appears to be somewhat more conducive early Friday morning
(compared to Thursday) for the regeneration of new cells along
the southern flank of any ongoing MCS and I will carry low PoPs
across our three northern most row of counties as a result. It
should be noted, that some weakening and veering of the LLJ does
occur around 12 UTC Friday and this may actually limit the
southern extent of convective cells. If no MCS develops to the
north, it is possible that all of North TX remains dry through
Friday.

For Saturday---Another complex is expected to develop across
Oklahoma and both the GFS and ECMWF advertise 30-40 knots of
southerly flow at around 925mb with around 20-30 knots at 850mb.
This should certainly support the development of additional
convective cells along the Red River. As a result, will continue
to advertise at least a slight chance for showers and storms
during this time. Similar to Friday, if no MCS develops to the
north, much of the area will remain dry.

For Sunday and beyond---Low rain chances will linger into Sunday
morning mainly along and north of I-20. Thereafter, upper level
flow becomes quite weak with ridging expected and this supports a
dry forecast for the start of the next work week.

Bain

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/
No major aviation weather concerns through Monday evening.

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Monday with few to
scattered CU and scattered to broken high clouds.

An outflow boundary associated with storms in Oklahoma was near
the Red River at 11 PM. This boundary will continue to weaken and
will most likely not reach the Metroplex terminals. Therefore, we
expect southerly winds to continue overnight and Monday at speeds
below 12 kts.

A few showers may develop across the Metroplex TAF sites Monday
afternoon as a weak cold front approaches from the northeast. We
feel coverage will be very limited so will just continue
mentioning showers in the vicinity of the terminals during peak
heating of the day Monday.

79


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  92  74  95 /  30  30  30  10  10
Waco                96  75  91  74  94 /  20  20  40  20  10
Paris               94  74  91  71  93 /  30  40  30  10  10
Denton              95  75  91  73  94 /  30  40  30  10  10
McKinney            94  75  92  73  94 /  30  40  30  10  10
Dallas              97  78  92  74  95 /  30  30  30  10  10
Terrell             95  76  92  72  94 /  30  40  30  10  10
Corsicana           95  76  92  72  94 /  20  20  30  20  10
Temple              95  74  92  74  94 /  10  10  40  20  10
Mineral Wells       95  73  92  73  93 /  20  20  30  10  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/15



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