Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 271722 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS
MORNING AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON. A SUNNY SKY
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 40+
KNOT JET DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM DAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT LEAST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND
POSSIBLY A BIT STRONGER. SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL LIKELY HELP
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND REACH THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOME
WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY. THE PASSING
SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION MONDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR WILL BE VERY TEMPORARY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED SINCE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCE AMONG THE
EXTENDED MODELS.   79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  40  66  53  78 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              62  38  68  53  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             55  35  65  51  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  38  67  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          56  38  66  51  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            60  41  68  52  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  37  66  54  74 /   0   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  39  68  55  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  37  69  52  76 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  38  70  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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