000
FXUS64 KFWD 241508 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION UPDATE...

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE DFW TAF AIRPORTS.
HOWEVER...AGITATED CUMULUS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
MOVING NORTH WITH CLOUD BASES BELOW 2000 FEET. EXPECT THESE MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE NORTH INTO DFW BETWEEN 15-16Z. WITH THE CLOUDS ALSO
COMES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RADAR
IS ALREADY SHOWING RETURNS BETWEEN DFW AND ACT AND EXPECT AREAL
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL ALSO BE ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY
SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS.

82/JLD

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS HAVING A HARD TIME ORGANIZING PRESUMABLY DUE
TO THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. OBS ARE SHOWING MVFR CIGS
TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA AND WILL SHOW MVFR THERE THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS AIRMASS IS MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WITH
HEATING SOME MVFR CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AT 18Z.

CONVECTION FORECAST IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL INDICATE A WINDOW OF VCTS
FROM FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH WHETHER AIRPORTS WILL EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FROM
THUNDER AT THIS POINT.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING HAS SPUN UP AN
MCV...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH TX.
THIS FORCING SHOULD KICK UP MORE CONVECTION AS SEEN IN ECMWF AND
GFS. NAM FORECASTS NEW CONVECTION IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...BUT RECENT RADAR SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING SO
HAVE DISREGARDED THE NAM/S SOLUTION OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING MCS
MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET FOR THE
AREA...JUST A DIFFERENCE ON MECHANISMS AND LOCAL PRECIP AMOUNTS.

THERE IS ALSO A SHORT WAVE JUST OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA THAT SHOULD
TRACK ENE AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ADDING SUPPORT TO THE FORECAST OF CONVECTION MOVING SW-
NE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT CANNOT
ELIMINATE ANY AREAS GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS SO POPS EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TX.

WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK MODERATE
RIDGING ALOFT AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
MORNINGS AND WARMER AFTERNOONS. GFS/EURO CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK SO WILL NOT FORECAST RAIN IN THE
EXTENDED. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  71  84  70  87 /  30  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              87  71  88  70  89 /  40  30  20  20   5
PARIS, TX             81  69  84  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            83  71  83  70  86 /  30  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          84  71  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            87  71  87  70  89 /  30  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           86  71  87  70  88 /  20  20  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         87  71  87  71  89 /  30  30  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  72  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  71  84  69  88 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/69