Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 250530 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1130 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Sunday. Southeasterly
winds around 10 knots will persist through 15z. As a cold front
moves through the region, winds in the Metroplex will shift to
the northeast around 15z and to the north by 18z. The wind shift
will occur a few hours later at Waco with the northeast winds by
18z and to the north before 00z. There will be some scattered
high clouds.


58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 342 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/
/Through Tonight/

Southerly winds have increased across the Southern Plains in
advance of an approaching front. This breeze is simply
introducing additional dry air, both from downward transport via
daytime vertical mixing and from trajectories off the Hill
Country. The more significant influence has been warm advection
and downslope adiabatic warming, which have helped temperatures
reach 80 degrees from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex westward.
This has dropped relative humidity values below 20 percent in some
areas. The warmth and low humidity, combined with limited autumn
rainfall and abundant dormant vegetation serving as fuel, have
aided in the initiation of wildfires in recent days. The winds
spread these fires and can make them difficult to contain. One
such grass fire in the town of Cool (Parker County) briefly forced
the closure of Highway 180, the primary thoroughfare between
Mineral Wells and Weatherford.

The dry air will assure no clouds within the boundary layer, but
extensive cirrus to our west should enhance the sunset. While the
quality of moisture across the northwestern Gulf is also poor,
the onset of southerly flow adjacent to the Texas/Tamaulipas
coastline tonight will eventually re-establish a connection to
tropical moisture. Dew points will rise several degrees across
North and Central Texas tonight, but the richest moisture will
remain along the Texas coast and adjacent portions of Southeast
Texas. The warm temperatures at nightfall will delay the
decoupling of the surface layer, keeping the winds up this
evening. Despite the dry air, this will slow the temperature fall
which will also be tempered by the increasing moisture. After a
couple of chilly mornings, daybreak temperatures on Saturday will
only bottom out in the mid 40s to lower 50s. (Normal lows for
November 25 range from the mid 30s in far western zones to the mid
40s in the inner urban areas of the Metroplex.)

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 342 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/
/Saturday through Friday/

The upper pattern will remain progressive through the upcoming
week although the main storm track will stay well to the north of
our area resulting in continued dry weather with occasional
frontal passages. A weak front will move through North Texas on
Saturday, but a lack of any significant moisture will mean a dry
passage with north winds and slightly cooler temperatures.

Southerly winds will return late Sunday as upper ridging builds
back into the Southern Plains. Temperatures will warm Monday and
Tuesday to 10 to 15 degrees above normal. By late Tuesday, a fast
moving shortwave trough will swing through the Plains. The model
guidance begins to diverge around this time with the GFS featuring
a stronger and farther south track, while the ECMWF is weaker and
farther north. Either way, at this time, it appears that moisture
return will be limited and rain chances will remain very low.
Even if the farther south solution of the GFS were to pan out,
forecast soundings are strongly capped suggesting nothing more
than a brief shot at some light showers beneath the cap across our
eastern counties late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

If a weak front can make it through during this time, highs on
Wednesday would be a few degrees cooler. A more significant cold
front is likely to make its way through the area sometime on
Thursday with cooler temperatures for Friday into next weekend.
We`ll keep the forecast dry through the end of next week given the
generally dry pattern that we`ve been in for a while. The GFS does
linger a strong piece of shortwave energy over the southwestern
U.S. Thursday into Friday with a decent amount of moisture return
atop the cooler air for Friday. This scenario would lead to some
much needed rainfall. We`ll continue to monitor this potential
over the coming days.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  71  47  69  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                47  73  46  71  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               46  69  42  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              46  70  42  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            46  70  43  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              51  71  48  69  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             47  71  45  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           49  72  47  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              47  73  46  71  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  71  41  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.