Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



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