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000
FXUS65 KGJT 302226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONGOING MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA IS CREATING FORECASTING
CHALLENGES TODAY. DESPITE FREEZING OR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND
DWPTS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE ON
NON-ROAD SURFACES AT PAGOSA SPRINGS AND THE DURANGO AREA. STARTING
TO SEE ROAD ACCUMULATIONS ON THE WEBCAMS AT PAGOSA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NEAR DURANGO DESPITE WARMING TEMPS...SO CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES IN ALL GUIDANCE WILL BE COOLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT WE DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR ABOVE 6500 FEET TO
INCLUDE THESE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON IMPACT BASED CRITERIA. EXPECTING
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS AND ROADS DETERIORATING
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT. SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AT SNOTELS TODAY...THOUGH SWES ARE BEGINNING TO
PICK UP AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING. THE MOUNTAIN ADVISORIES LOOK ON
TRACK...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE PREVIOUS HAZARDS.
GUNNISON IS AN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WET SNOW
CONTINUING TO FALL INTERMITTENTLY THERE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL AND CREATE IMPACTS THERE
TONIGHT.

A DRY SLOT IN NEW MEXICO WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO SW COLORADO
LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION TO HEAD NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL CHANGE TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WITH
STABLE AIR MOVING IN...MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SINK SOUTH ALONG MEXICO`S WEST COAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD OVER THE FAR WEST. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF WRN
CANADA SKIMS BY NE CO AS IT DROPS INTO THE PLAINS. IT MAY TRIGGER
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK MTNS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE SUNDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST NEXT
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE EARLY ON AND THEN PERHAPS A
SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD LATE. ANY COLD AIR INCURSION LOOKS UNLIKELY IN
THIS PATTERN...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SEASONABLE OR WARMER. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY TOP THE RIDGE AND KEEP A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION PRESENT FOR THE NRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL MTNS
AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BREAK ON
THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 951 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME SRN CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO WESTERN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING. PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF A
KPUC-KSBS LINE WILL RESULT FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN CLOUDS
AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY BETWEEN 6000 FT MSL AND 8000 FT MSL.
PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN VERY MOIST SURFACE AIR WILL ALSO RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND OFTEN MVFR CIGS.  EXPECT
VSBY AND CIGS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AT KDRO THIS AFTERNOON AS -SN
CHANGES TO -SNRA OR -RA UNTIL 03Z. CONDITIONS BEGIN IMPROVING FROM
THE NW SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAD