Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
717 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 712 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Winds are lightening up across the forecast area and will
continue to do so over the next few hours. As this occurs,
critical fire weather conditions will no longer be met so the Red
Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. A few showers and storms
will persist north of I-70 through midnight which the current
forecast captures well so no updates in short-term period


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Satellite imagery indicates the next disturbance upstream of
Colorado beginning to elongate over eastern Utah, southern Montana,
and Wyoming. Short term forecast models bring an elongated area
of 500mb energy into NE Utah and NW Colorado overnight and into
Saturday morning but conditions are looking quite dry in the
lower levels along this front. The NAM and GFS are showing a line
of showers along this boundary but the short term convective
models are not which may be because of their more frequent
updates. They may also be picking up on later initiation of
showers with the system still well north of the area. Still kept
small snow accumulations above 9 to 10kt in the northcentral
Colorado mountains for tonight but thinking that any
accumulations which do occur will be rather spotty.

The trough swings through eastern Utah and western Colorado
throughout the day Saturday and ought to bring showers or at least
virga along its WSW to ENE axis as it pushes southward. Thinking
we could have a few dry storms develop since there have been a few
storms not producing precipitation today ahead of the system.
Much drier air will filter in behind this system so the threat
for precipitation will be low across the region. Did keep low
shower/storm probabilities in the forecast across NE Utah and NW
Colorado and moving southward throughout the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Large amplitude high pressure on track to develop over the western
US on Sunday with a closed low developing by Wednesday and Thursday
over SoCal and Baja CA. The timing and progression of this closed
low has been changing a lot so confidence is low to moderate on
timing of this playing out. Forecast models are still indicating
diurnally induced showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next
week, though available moisture looks too low Sunday through Tuesday
for much activity. Starting Wednesday with that closed low southwest
of the Four Corners developing, moisture is expected to begin
increasing from the south and provide support for more widespread
afternoon convection.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

A cold front draped across Utah and Colorado is maintaining gusty
winds around the area this afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms north of I-70. The gusty winds should diminish
shortly after sunset this evening with lingering showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north of I-70. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours.




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