Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270950
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...INCREASING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH ISOLATED POPS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
ENERGETIC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY..DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THIS
WEEK. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARK OVER HUDSON BAY REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHIFT OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST STATES TO EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WESTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS BY THE WEEKEND. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE EAST TO WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT IT
WILL BE RE-ORIENTING DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME. A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMA WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
WARMER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. ASCENT FROM
JET WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS WEEK...FAVORING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
TO THE NORTH A DRIER FLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK/S END. MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE RIDGE AND IT APPEARS CHANCED FOR A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR POPS.
HOWEVER THINK THERE IS A COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS AND DID PUSH HIGHS
UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
GOING MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH FLIGHT OPERATIONS TODAY.
INITIALLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
WINDS AT 10000-14000 FT MSL INCREASING 40KTS FROM THE SW AFT 12Z.
THESE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE MIXING INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z
THEN LEAD TO A GUSTY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OVER 25 MPH IN MANY
AREAS. ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT WILL MAINLY FOCUS
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT
FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
MPH..THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT



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