Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
909 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017


...Another hot day on tap as the Fire Danger remains High...

Current-tonight...KXMR morning sounding shows a PWAT of 1.38 inches,
though generally very dry above 800 mb. Weak high pressure ridging
continues across the area. Mid-level ridging is forecast to
strengthen over the FL peninsula and gradually move northward toward
the southeast U.S. coast tonight. As a result mid-level temperatures
have been warming, only -7.8C at 500 mb which will limit
destabilization potential. This will lead to a hot, humid,
convectively suppressed day with max temps reaching the U80s along
the immediate coast, L90s from about I-95 to a little west of the
SJR, and mid 90s across most of the interior. Much like yesterday,
maximum HI values in the U90s will be common away from the coast,
and may nudge triple digits in a few spots. Warm and humid again
tonight with a sultry SE flow keeping mins in the L70s inland, and
M70s along the coast.


.AVIATION...VFR. SKC with LCL SCT030 13-15Z, lifting to FEW-SCT060
inland by afternoon. ESE-SE winds approaching 15 kts over the
interior this afternoon and 15-20 kts and gusty along the
Space/Treasure coasts.


.MARINE...Today-tonight...Weak high pressure ridging across the area
today. SE-SSE winds generally 10-15 kts and around 15 kts sustained
tonight offshore. Seas 3-4 ft.


.FIRE WEATHER...Previous...Afternoon RH values will reach the mid-
upper 30s west of the SJR this afternoon, with a few hours in the
L30s likely across Lake County. County-averaged ERC values are
generally between 30-40, while the K-B drought index map shows just
about all of the CWA AOA 500, and most of that between 600-700. Only
two areas below this range - north Lake/Volusia (which had a rain
event on 4/4), and coastal Saint Lucie/Martin (locally very heavy
rain fell there 4/23).

The Fire Danger will remain in the "high" to "very high" range today
even though critical RH values (35 pct)/durations (4-hours), and
average ERC values (37) in some counties, fall a few clicks short of
RFW criteria.




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