Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
850 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Current...The first bona fide cold front of the dry season is moving
into Central Florida at this hour. A much drier airmass containing
dewpoints in the U40s to L50s behind the front will make good
progress through the area overnight. The current forecast is in good
shape and no updates are planned.

.Previous Discussion...
Tonight/Saturday...Cold front across north Florida will sweep
southward through the peninsula followed by a surge of cooler and
drier air (the coolest since early May) on increasing northwest to
north winds. Skies will clear quickly post-sunset with mins ranging
from the M-U50s over the Ocala Forest to the L-M60s along the
Treasure Coast. Maxes generally in the M-U70s.

Modified Previous Discussion Follows...

Sun...High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will
build eastward with a ridge axis extending into the western Atlc.
Thus, north winds will veer to the northeast Sun. Low temps on
Sunday are tricky near the coast as 925 mb winds veer quickly to an
onshore (NE) component, while surface winds remain light NNW. Have
trended cooler near the coast (Brevard southward) but have stayed a
couple/few degrees warmer than GFS and ECMWF MOS. The coolest air
since early May is expected Sunday morning with lows dipping into
the 50s over much of the area, except low/mid 60s along the
immediate coast south of the Cape. Highs both days will be slightly
below normal ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Mon-Thu...The high pressure ridge just north of the area will weaken
Mon as a frontal boundary pushes off the eastern seaboard.
Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and east
and produce an increase in E/NE flow Tue through Wed.
Increasing moisture and onshore flow will produce higher shower
chances esp near the coast Tue night and Wed with the best chance
along the Treasure coast on Wed. The stronger and more persistent
onshore flow will produce milder temperatures in the lower 80s and
noticeably warmer low temps in the mid to upper 60s, except lower
70s along the coast.




Tonight/Saturday...Cold front will sweep southward down the waters
accompanied by a solid northerly wind surge of around 20KT as the
low well offshore the SE coast lifts north and merges with the front
well to our NE by Saturday. While swells from this low will abate,
expect significant increase in wind chop to more than make up for
the diminished swell, pushing seas up into the 6-8FT range well

One small change to the CWF was to extend the offshore SCA a few
hours Saturday morning, given wind trajectory will directly oppose
the Gulf Stream, keeping higher seas there into late Saturday

Sunday-Wednesday...Winds will veer and develop an onshore component
by Sunday while decreasing to around 15 knots. With a continued
northerly component, seas will remain choppy, especially in the
vicinity of the Gulf Stream. Northeast flow 10-15 knots Mon-Tue with
seas 3 to 4 feet. A secondary northeast wind surge on Wednesday will
reinforce higher seas, and poor to hazardous boating conditions into
late week.


.HYDROLOGY...The St. Johns River at Astor (2.79ft) fell below Flood
Stage and into Action Stage this morning. The river is forecast to
remain above Action Stage (2.50ft) through Tuesday, before falling
below by next Wednesday.

At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River (6.92ft) will
remain above Action Stage (6.50ft) through next Wednesday.


.FIRE WEATHER...Since we`ve now transitioned to the dry season, most
AFD products from now through May will start including at least some
mention of fire weather conditions across ECFL. The post-frontal air
mass drying will result in a few afternoons (Sat/Sun/Mon) where RH
values near/and or northwest of I-4 will drop below 40 percent.
However, neither wind nor RH will reach critical levels and ground
moisture conditions are nowhere near problematic at this time.


DAB  58  74  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  60  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  64  77  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  65  78  59  79 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  57  75  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  76  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  65  79  59  79 /  10   0   0   0


AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
     evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-
     60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



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