Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS62 KMLB 031910
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...
MID AFTN TEMPS HAVE WELL EXCEEDED THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS.
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD COUPLED WITH MINIMAL MID LVL THERMAL
CAPS LED TO SHRA INITIALIZATION OVER THE TREASURE COAST BY MIDDAY...
ADDITIONAL SHRAS OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. WHILE DEEP LYR VORT FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF
A 80-100KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE NRN GOMEX HAS ALLOWED UPR DIV
FIELDS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THRU SUNSET WITH BRISK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL PUSHING ALL
CONVECTION TO THE E/NE AT 20-25KTS. MORNING RAOBS REVEALED A VERY
DRY H70-H50 LYR...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESP CONSIDERING THE RAPID STORM MOTION.

DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT AS THE
DEEP/STRONG W/SW FLOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING ANY GOMEX
SHRAS ACRS THE PENINSULA. LIGHT BUT STEADY WRLY FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

WEDNESDAY...
HI AMP MID/UPR TROF AXIS EXTENDING FM THE DESERT SW TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DVLPG LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID ATLC TO
PUSH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. NEARLY
SATURATED COLUMN AS FRONTAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PUSHING UP FROM THE BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS. PWAT VALUES INCRG
TO 1.75"-2.00" BY 18Z WILL PRODUCE WDSPRD SHRAS WITH LIKELY TSRAS.
FROPA WL OCCUR FROM MID DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WRLY H85-H50
STEERING FLOW INCRG TO 30-40KTS WILL ENSURE FAST MOVING STORMS...
MANY OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS ARND -10C...RAISING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND FQNT CG LTG. RAIN/CLOUD COMBO WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

WED NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMES VERY DRY VERY QUICK. BECAUSE THE
COOLER AND DRY AIR HAS YET TO FULLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 60S THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS SNEAKING INTO THE MID
60S (AROUND 65) IN MARTIN COUNTY.

THU-FRI...
WITH THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS SHOWING THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGH
AXIS CLEARING FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT WED AND DEEP...ROUGHLY 925MB TO
250MB AND ABOVE...WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AND LASTING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT THU THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AND BEYOND.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE WHOLE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI
THEN A SLOW MOISTENING SAT NIGHT AND SUN. UNSEASONABLY COOL EVENINGS
THU AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND
HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC IS SHOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 04/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/00Z...S/SW 8-12KTS...S OF KTIX BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS.
BTWN 04/00Z-04/03Z...BCMG SW 3-7KTS. AFT 04/14Z..BCMG W/SW 8-12KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 04/00Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES MVG
E/NE 15-20KTS...SFC G35KTS PSBL WITH ANY TSRA ACTIVITY ESP CSTL
SITES. BTWN 04/00Z-04/04Z...S OF KISM-KTIX SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS.N OF KISM-KTIX SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 04/04Z-04/14Z SLGT
CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. AFT 04/14Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL020-030 WITH OCNL VSBYS IN SHRAS...IFR TSRAS LKLY/SLGT CHC LIFR
+TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W/SW AHEAD OF A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
DEEP SOUTH. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE...OCNLY FRESH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL TROF INTERACTS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING ATLC RIDGE.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE WATERS FETCH-PROTECTED WHILE
GENERATING ROUGH SHORT PD WIND CHOP WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU MIDDAY WED...BUILDING
TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN WED. CHC OF
SHRAS/TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE THRU MIDNIGHT. OCNL SHRAS AND NMRS
TSRAS DVLPG BY MIDDAY WED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY.

WED NIGHT-SUN...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH SAT. MORE
WESTERLY SUN AS A FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SUPPRESSES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 15 20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS HIGHER...5 TO 6 FEET...WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO LONGER
FETCH.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRA ASSOCD WITH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT
WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.

THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 35PCT.

FRI-SAT...LOOK TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS
OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SAT-SUN...SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL STILL SEE ERC
VALUES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  84  58  79 /  40  70  10   0
MCO  71  82  61  80 /  30  70  20   0
MLB  71  85  61  83 /  30  70  20   0
VRB  72  87  62  84 /  40  70  30   0
LEE  72  81  60  78 /  40  70  10   0
SFB  72  85  62  79 /  30  70  10   0
ORL  71  84  64  80 /  30  70  10   0
FPR  69  88  62  85 /  40  70  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.