Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 020729
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
328 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT...KMLB NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ECHOES MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS A BLANKET OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ALL SOUTH OF A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
MSAS/SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS CREPT NORTH TO
NEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL FL. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AGAIN LIES
ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE 915 MHZ PROFILER WINDS OUT OF THE S/SSW
AVERAGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS OFF THE DECK UP TO AROUND 10.0 KFT.
SURFACE S/SSW WINDS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2
INCHES AREAWIDE EARLY...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF I-4 LATER IN THE DAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. S/SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TOWARD AROUND
15 MPH...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH 15-20 MPH (BREEZY) AT TIMES AND SOME
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST MAY SEE WINDS BACK
TO SSE/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE CLOUD
COVER HARD TO OVERCOME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE U80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

THE DEEP/STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO TRAVERSE THE PENINSULA
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE FORECAST TO BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH MODELS SHOWING A RANGE BETWEEN -5.5 AND -6.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS ECFL. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT FAIRLY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EAST COAST/COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND OUT
OF THE SW AT 15 TO 20 KTS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS.

MARINERS ON INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD
FOR DEVELOPING/APPROACHING STORMS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH A SCHC FOR A SHOWER WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. S/SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SE GA AND MOVE NE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
STRETCHING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN SECTIONS MONDAY MORNING AND
DROPPING SLOWLY SE INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES INTO MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS APPROACH
THE EAST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF FT PIERCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN ZONES WHERE MORE MORNING
SUN IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE SFC AND LOW LVL RIDGE WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TWD
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. OVERALL WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS IN
THE SFC TO 850 LAYER WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FAVORING
INTERIOR SECTIONS ESPEC INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST. WILL
FORECAST 30-40 POPS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND 40-50 PCT OVER THE
INTERIOR. HIGHS FROM 89 TO 92 DEGS.

WED...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW IS FORECAST AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING TWD THE NRN INTERIOR LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOWEST POPS AROUND 30 PCT
WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE
INLAND INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHS NEAR 90
COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

THU...THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY THU AFTN
AS A 500 MB S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE LEVELS
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TWD THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES 40 PCT CSTL TO 50 PCT FROM ORLANDO SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS 90-92 DEGS.

FRI-SUN...A DEEPENING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD MOVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...LIKELY ALONG A PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG AN EAST COAST BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE EAST COAST IF THE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...A SIMILAR PATTERNS SITS IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HRRR HINTS AGAIN AT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA MOVING INTO ECFL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON (NORTH TO SOUTH).
MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN A DEEP SWRLY FLOW PATTERN WITH
SHRA/TSRA BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. SKIES TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. S/SSW SFC WINDS A BIT STRONGER AS WITH YESTERDAY AND GUSTY
AT TIMES. ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WINDS MAY BACK TO S/SSE AS THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS LIES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS WITH PREVIOUS
DAYS...PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY
DISTORT THE WIND FIELD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THAN
FORECAST WITH VARYING DIRECTION. TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. CELL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE AT 15 TO 20 KTS. FOR TAFS...VCSH/VCTS FROM
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS ADDED AS CONFIDENCE
PERMITS. THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SEEM APPROPRIATE AGAIN FOR GUSTY S/SSW
WINDS OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO
MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HERE. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

WINDS/SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF QUICK MOVING OFFSHORE
SHOWERS/STORMS. OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN A THREAT
THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING AND COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH LATER
TODAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT STRONG WINDS MAY ARRIVE WELL
AHEAD OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW COULD
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
TO 4 FT ACROSS THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS.

TUE-THU...S-SW WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE
BY WED/THU AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE. A LOWER COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  87  73 /  60  30  60  20
MCO  89  74  88  73 /  60  20  60  20
MLB  91  76  89  75 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  72  91  72 /  50  30  50  30
LEE  86  75  87  74 /  60  30  60  20
SFB  89  75  88  73 /  60  20  60  20
ORL  89  75  88  75 /  60  20  60  20
FPR  91  73  91  73 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER


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