Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280808
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
308 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Today...Southeast low level flow will continue today around the
Atlantic high pressure ridge offshore from the mid Atlantic coast.
An area of enhanced low level moisture producing showers early this
morning along the Treasure coast will weaken into mid day but should
still allow for a low shower chance across srn interior sections
into the afternoon. A lingering NE/ENE swell and lower than average
low tidal heights in the afternoon will contribute to a moderate
risk of rip currents at east central Florida beaches. Highs will be
warm and range from 82-84 near the east coast and in the mid 80s
across the interior.

Tonight...Southeast to SSE low level flow will continue overnight as
high pressure drops southward across the Atlantic. Winds will be
southeast along the immediate coast overnight and light across the
interior. Dry weather is expected with partly cloudy skies
overnight. Elevated boundary layer moisture and light winds across
the interior will favor development of patchy late night fog mainly
away from the immediate east coast. Lows will be mild in the 60s to
near 70 along the Martin county coast.

Wednesday...The ridge axis will get shunted into south Florida as
a storm system intensifies over the Great Lakes. The attendant
surface front will move toward the panhandle late in the day,
allowing surface and low-level winds to veer from the SE/S to W/SW
in the afternoon. Steady moisture levels (PWat 1.00"-1.25") and
little change to a rather stable mid/upper level pattern suggests
any chance for measurable precipitation will remain limited;
however, enhanced low-level convergence from developing sea and
lake breeze boundaries across central/southern sections suggest a
small chance for low-topped showers is warranted. Warmer temps
(low 80s) expected along coastal sections with delayed sea-breeze,
mid/upper 80s inland.

Thursday...Low-amplitude troughing over the eastern CONUS will
erode the Atlantic ridge axis further and allow a slow-moving
surface front to traverse the peninsula through the day. Mid/upper
level steering flow becomes parallel to the boundary, suggesting
slow movement and limited surface convergence as it shifts
southward. While moisture will pool ahead of the front (PWats up
to 1.25"-1.50"), lack of dynamic forcing above the surface will
preclude the mention of thunder in this forecast package. Expect
temperatures across southern/central zones to easily warm into the
mid 80s; however, highs across the I-4 corridor will be heavily
dependent on the timing of the boundary and associated arrival of
north winds.

Extended...High pressure building behind the surface boundary
will settle over the Carolinas this weekend and offshore early
next week. Locally, this will bring a period of enhanced onshore
flow and cooler/drier weather from Friday into the weekend.
Building seas in east flow will lead to rough surf and an enhanced
risk of rip currents along area beaches.

Winds will relax and veer to the southeast early next week as the
ridge axis shifts south toward the Peninsula. Max temps in the 70s
CWA-wide and mins in the 50s north/interior portion of CWA and
low/mid 60s south/coastal areas over the weekend before modifying
further on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
A small shower band near the east coast will affect the KVRB-KSUA
corridor through the early morning hours with isold SHRA expected
mainly south of KMCO-KISM into this afternoon. Areas of stratus (008-
012) will affect nrn interior terminals through 12z with VFR conds
expected by mid morning into the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Min RHS will drop to around 50 percent across well interior
sections with higher moisture levels with southeast onshore flow
today to 15 mph near the coast to 10 mph for the interior. Dispersion
will be in the good range with low level winds from southeast to 15-
20 mph at 2500 ft. Low shower chances expected mainly south of a
Melbourne to Kissimmee line.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...SE winds mainly 12-16 knots across the open waters
through tonight will keep seas somewhat elevated with seas to 3-4 ft
nearshore and up to 4-5 ft offshore. Predominant wave periods in the
6-7 second range.

Wednesday/Thursday...Favorable boating conditions to start the
period as gentle to moderate S/SE breeze prevails, veering to
S/SW overnight Wednesday. A surface front will move over the
waters Thursday afternoon, shifting winds to the N/NW behind the
boundary.

Friday/Saturday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions anticipated
as a moderate to fresh onshore breeze develops late this week and
over the weekend. Winds will veer from the N/NE on Friday to the
E/NE on Saturday, with seas building up to 8 feet offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  66  84  65 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  86  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  84  68  83  68 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  84  68  83  67 /  30  10  20  20
LEE  86  66  86  66 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  85  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  86  68  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  83  67 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Ulrich


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