Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION TODAY
BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER WEST
CENTRAL FL THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 40 PERCENT) WILL RESIDE ALONG
THE COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD SEE THE SEA BREEZE
FORM AND STALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED OR DOES NOT
DEVELOP AT ALL MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AS HIGH
OF COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AS YESTERDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE ISO/SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE AFT AND PUSH EAST
TOWARD THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL EXIST ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM KTIX-KSUA DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME
MORE S/SE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES
SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER



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