Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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480 FXUS64 KHUN 111749 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1249 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 High pressure will continue to reinforce a cooler and drier airmass over the region today, with mostly sunny skies and breezy westerly winds at times. After beginning the day in the low to mid 50s, temperatures have steadily warmed into the mid 60s this morning and are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. No significant changes were needed during the morning update, and overall could not ask for a better spring day in May. Enjoy! && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Upper level ridging will make its way over the Southeast Sunday/Sunday night, then begin to shift eastward as a shortwave trough nears from the west. Models currently show this feature moving over the Mississippi Valley overnight Monday into Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the weekend will eventually be pushed east as a surface low develops over the central and southern Plains. This low is progged to move east through early next week and bring our next chance at showers and storms on Monday. Medium to high chances (50-80%) of showers and storms are forecast from Monday afternoon through Monday night, bringing around an inch of rain or so to portions of the area. The most probable time frame for storms looks to be in the evening and overnight, as instability and shear values increase with the advancement of the aforementioned surface low. One question will be the trajectory of this low and where its associated warm front will move (remain south of our area or progress over northern Alabama?). This will determine the potential for any strong storms. At this time, the warm front looks to remain to our south overnight Monday and thus, severe weather is not anticipated. This will be monitored as we get closer; however, we can expect gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning in any storms that do develop. After another cool night tonight in the 50s (with some spots possibly in the upper 40s over southern middle TN and NE AL), it will be a bit warmer on Sunday. Highs are forecast to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night will also be warmer as moisture begins to increase, with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With medium to high chances of rain on Monday, highs are expected to only reach the lower 70s. However, lows Monday night will be warmer due to elevated moisture levels, in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 An unsettled weather pattern will continue as we go into the week. An upper level area of low pressure now over the southern Great Basin will move eastward over the next few days, and should reach the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Tue. Upper troughing accompanying this system will place the area under a SW-NE upper flow. A surface low with this system and a cold front nearing from the west will continue a trend of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley. Overall storm strength continues to look "general" with a usual potential for gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. The aformentioned cold front should move across the area Tue night with shower activity ending from west to east. The parent low however will move slower to the east. Its location over the Ohio Valley, and residual moisture over our eastern areas will keep lower end rain chances in on Wed, mainly east of I-65 and over our more NE areas. A brief break in shower activity is forecast Wed night as the first low finally exits more to the north and east. More showers and storm chances return on Thu as yet another system nears from the west. Output from the deterministic models was becoming more uncertain (comparing the precip fields with one another), so trended more with the blends. They were suggesting the best rain chances Thu night into Fri. This system looked similar overall strength wise with the earlier system, with mainly non-severe storms anticipated. High temperatures on Tue and Wed should range in the upper 70s. A bit warmer on Thu with highs in the lower 80s, and around 80 Fri. Lows Tue night should range in the lower 60s, and a bit cooler Wed night in the upper 50s, then back into the lower 60s Thu night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both terminals. Expect mostly clear skies with breezy WNW winds this afternoon, with gusts as high as 20kts possible. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...25