Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 271959
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
259 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 88-D RETURNS INDICATED THAT THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SPRINKLES/ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 40S ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT CLOUDS/SPRINKLES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT
TIMING OF SKIES CLEARING LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PER THE NAM/GFS
SCENARIOS FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY LESSEN WITH
TIME TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEARING SKIES TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING
FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR TONIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TOWARD NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ALABAMA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LIMITED MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
THE COLDEST TEMPS TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL AGAIN CONTINUE WITH
THE FREEZE WARNING FORECAST AREA WIDE.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN THROUGH
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY BETWEEN THE 06Z-12Z MONDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY EVENING ALONG AND NEAR THE
PROGGED SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAVORABLE AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THE COLD FRONT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TAKES SHAPE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MISSISSIPPI BY
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INVOLVING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS...SO WILL TREND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AT THIS
TIME.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL AFFECT THE CWA AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. ANY -SHRA WITH THIS SECOND
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    30  47  29  61 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        30  47  28  62 /  10  20  10  10
VINEMONT      30  46  29  60 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  27  45  25  57 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   30  46  28  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    29  47  27  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-
     096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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