Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHUN 211649 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED PRECIP/POP AREA IN THE SE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH BASES ARND 3KFT AND TOPS TO ARND 5KFT HAVE
MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS STILL
PREVAIL IN FAR NW ALABAMA AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. ALSO, A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES. THIS COMPLICATES THE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT, BUT NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED BASED LARGELY
ON THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS AND WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
THE LONGEST. IN A SW-NE SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE. IN LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP A
LITTLE. TEMP RISES TODAY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT INCREASING
WAA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL AIRMASS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THE
EAST. LIFT AND CONDENSATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF DEKALB/JACKSON COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HEATING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE
CLOUD "HOLE" IN PARTS OF CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT THERE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE REMOVED FROM THOSE AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF THE HSV/DECATUR METRO.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 552 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

BIT OF A PESSIMISTIC AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BE OVERCOME
WITH MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL APPROACH THE KHSV TERMINAL AT 20Z AND THEN AT 00Z AT THE KMSL
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE TERMINALS SOONER THAN FORECAST...BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z AT THE KHSV TERMINAL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING BEYOND A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.