Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 290755
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
255 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A cdfnt has moved south of the TN valley taking the isolated shra
with it. Otherwise a quiet wx pattern is expected for the next seven
days. However there are a couple of flies in the onitment for both
the short and long terms.

For the short term, today thru Saturday, expect cooler temps (highs
in the 70s and lows upper 40s/lower 50s) and mainly dry conditions.
A closed upper low now over the Ohio valley is progged to move south
towards the TN valley over the next few days. Models are showing that
the center of the upper low will end up over KY by Friday before
drifting back north on Friday night and Saturday. This wx scenario
could make for a tricky fcst, especially with wrap arnd cloud
cover/temps and the chc for shra. Thunder looks unlikely during this
period due to a fairly stable airmass across the area. 5H temps
across the CWA will be between minus 12 and 15 C with the much colder
5H temps/steeper lapse rates over the Ohio valley. Thus the better
chc of pcpn should stay north of the CWA. However cant rule out an
isolated mainly aftn shra, especially north of the TN river. But
since the chc is very slim, will not include in fcst for now.

Long term fcst, the period Sunday thru Wednesday, looks dry along
with a slight warming trend, highs in the 80s and mrng lows arnd 60.
The fly in the onitment during the long term portion of the fcst
will be what effect TS Matthew will have across the TN valley, if
any. Attm Matthew is progged to become a hurricane by tonight with both
the ECMWF and GFS keeping the path of Matthew along the east coast.
Timing of Matthew affecting the east coast looks to be next Tuesday
thru the end of next week. GFS also is much quicker moving Matthew
northward than the ECMWF. Thus attm not expecting any affects with
Matthew across the TN valley. Stay tuned.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1152 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: The cold front has moved completely through the area.
Winds will continue to be breezy through 06-07Z then begin to drop
off and remain below 10kts through the overnight period. The clouds
associated with the front will scatter out leaving clear skies and
VFR conditions.

As the upper level low over the midwest shifts south tonight into
Thursday expect winds to ramp back up after sunrise Thursday. Gusts
upwards of 20kts will be possible at times out of the north. A
scattered to broken deck of clouds AOA 4,000 ft is expected to form
over TN during the day Thursday and some of these clouds should
filter south and move over the terminals.

Stumpf

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    74  51  75  54 /  10  10  10  10
Shoals        73  52  76  54 /  10   0  10  10
Vinemont      73  50  75  53 /  10   0   0  10
Fayetteville  70  48  74  52 /  10  10  10  10
Albertville   72  49  74  52 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Payne    71  50  74  52 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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