Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 200817
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
317 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS
IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

A SLOW INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP AND TEMPS
SHOULD WARM THIS AFTERNOON TO MODEL GUIDANCE. A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ALABAMA TO ALONG
INTERSTATE 65 BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATES THAT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WEST
TENNESSEE BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
WARM TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS BY
12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT INITIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
FRIDAY. THE MODELS FINALLY INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE INITIAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EARLY FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR INVOLVING WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY CLOSE TO ECMWF/GFS MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV
THRU THE FCST PERIOD DUE TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    79  53  78  60 /   0   0  20  60
SHOALS        78  53  79  60 /   0   0  20  60
VINEMONT      76  52  75  58 /   0   0  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  77  52  76  59 /   0   0  20  60
ALBERTVILLE   76  51  75  57 /   0   0  10  40
FORT PAYNE    78  50  76  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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