Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 171205
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
705 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SOME LIGHT VALLEY FOG HAS AGAIN FORMED THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THX
IN PART TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE BELOW H85. THE FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT IN THE MORE
FOG PRONE AREAS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS PAST DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE ONSET
OF DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO DIMINISH ANY LINGERING LOW VIS/CLOUDS.
THE WX OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONAL...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION BECOMES REINFORCED BY A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA. GENERALLY
DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMP TRENDS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE BECOMES LAYERED ACROSS
THE NRN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EWD. THE TRANQUIL
PATTERN ACTUALLY LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...BEFORE THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SE REGION BEGINS TO TURN
TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE NWLY FLOW STREAM.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE AND WILL BEGIN TO
FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
RETURN GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LATTER HALF OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT OUT OF THE NW LATE SUN. THE
LATEST TREND ALSO LOOKS FOR THIS ONCOMING ENERGY TO BE UNDERGOING A
WEAKENING PHASE AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD...AND LIKEWISE WILL HOLD ON TO
JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON PENDING FURTHER
MODEL RUNS. IN FACT...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISO THUNDER
SUN AFTERNOON AS A BIT MORE SFC/LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CLR THE AREA BY
MON EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE
E. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST REGIONS USHERING SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION GOING INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF
THIS NEXT AIR MASS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SATELLITE DATA AND RECENT SFC OBS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE
OF A VAST STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY IN THE 3.5-4.5 KFT RANGE. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT THRU AT LEAST 17/16Z...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS SEWD
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN BY
22Z AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DIGS SEWD FROM THE MID-MISS VALLEY
REGION THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR AN AREA OF -RA
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE TO SPREAD SWD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...
BUT CHANCE IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NNW BY LATE MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING/VEERING TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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