Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
910
FXUS64 KHUN 301126 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
WEATHER WISE...A LITTLE BUSIER CLOSE TO THE OFFICE AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...AS A LONE THUNDERSTORM RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE HUNTSVILLE
INTL AIRPORT. THIS CONVECTION APPARENTLY WAS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSED BY...IN A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. SYNOPTIC WISE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED IN A WEST
TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN
COULD BE DESCRIBED AS A SPLIT FLOW AND BLOCKY. A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WAS MOVING FROM NORTH OF THE EQUATOR/EAST OF HAWAII...THEN
ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NORTH OF THIS
SURGE...A REX TYPE BLOCK WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL
CONTINENT. IN A DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS IN
PROGRESS FROM SOUTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE WHEN/WHERE/HOW STRONG CONVECTION
COULD BECOME. USING A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS (A DRIER
NAM/HRRR/RAP TEMPERING THE WETTER GFS)...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST TODAY
SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SAYING "DRY"...HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY NORTHWARD...FIRMLY PLACING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE WARMER
SECTOR OVER THE AREA...A LACK OF DIRECT SUN SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS
TODAY...CLOSER TO 80 RATHER THAN THE LOW/MID 80S WE`VE EXPERIENCED AS
OF LATE.

FOLLOWING THE RECENTLY GOOD PERFORMING HIRES ARW...NSSL WRF AND
GFS...AM CONTINUING LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST ARRIVES. HOW STRONG STORMS
COULD BECOME LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN PART HINGE ON HOW WARM
IT BECOMES. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOTALLY... ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65 IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE REGION IN A
SW-NE MANNER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. RAIN CHANCES (SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER)
WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A TRAIN OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEMS EXITS
THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE MID AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. PAST EXTENDED
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS RATHER CONSISTENTLY (NOTING A WIDE
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS) FOR MAY.
AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...A COOL DOWN TO BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S THIS PERIOD...RATHER THAN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE CHANGING LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS ARE XPCTED TO LOWER
CLOSER TO MVFR HEIGHTS...AS SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
CIGS/VIS MAY BE REDUCED FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA...WITH VRB WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25-30KT. PRECIP MAY THEN
TAPER OFF SOME LATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE MID LEVEL CIGS
XPCTED...WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
MAINTAINED AMD NOT SKED IN THE KMSL TAF DUE TO LINGERING COMMS ISSUE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.