Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 211503
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN HERE AND THERE. TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK (OR ARE A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER) THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS, WELL ON THE WAY
TO REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER SERN LA, WITH THE SFC REFLECTION
NOTED JUST A BIT EAST - OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS OF 15Z ANALYSIS.
ASIDE FROM SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO OFFICIALLY ADD IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NERN AL, LINING UP WITH ANY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIFT, AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTION UPSTREAM
CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY, AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT KMSL THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH BRINGING A TASTE OF
SUMMER. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST SHY OF
105...WILL HOLD OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
WERE MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER OUTCOME AS THE GFS DOES NOT RETROGRADE
THE RIDGE LIKE THE OTHERS DO. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN
STARTING MONDAY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND EVEN FURTHER WHEN
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LOWER 90S.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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