Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 222105
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
MORNING AS THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH ALSO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PULLING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
INVERSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD JUST A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT A TRAILING AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. THUS...WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENT OF
THE COLD ADVECTION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST RELATED TO THE WARMER GFS
TEMPS AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKING AFTER SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  64  51  61 /  40 100  30  20
SHOALS        48  66  52  62 /  40 100  30  20
VINEMONT      47  64  51  62 /  50 100  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  46  62  50  59 /  30 100  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   46  63  50  60 /  50 100  30  20
FORT PAYNE    45  63  50  60 /  40 100  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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