Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 282013
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS ALSO SETTING UP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY 00Z MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AREA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS INTO
THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
KEEP IN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK OF ERICKA THROUGH FLORIDA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MVFR MIST...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...AS THE
MIST BEGINS TO MIX OUT.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  86  68  86 /   0  30  30  40
SHOALS        68  87  69  87 /   0  20  20  40
VINEMONT      68  84  68  84 /   0  30  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  67  84  67  83 /   0  30  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   68  83  68  84 /  10  40  30  40
FORT PAYNE    67  83  67  83 /  10  40  40  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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