Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KHUN 232322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
622 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Heavy showers and gusty winds that occurred with a cold front/quasi-
linear squall line last night have moved well east of this region.
Post frontal clouds, partially associated with a developing storm
system impacting the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes region
continued to move across this portion of the Tennessee Valley. A
"clearing" line separating broken/overcast skies east from mostly
clear skies west, was moving across the MS/AL border. A longer
duration of more direct solar insolation to our west had resulted in
warmer temperatures, with highs so far rising into the lower 70s,
especially in parts of far western Mississippi and most of Arkansas.
This warm up however will be a short memory, as a stronger cold front
now sweeping to the southeast from NW Wisconsin to central Oklahoma
and western Texas heads eastward.

A few light showers were present in some of the heavier stratus as it
progressed eastward. These hard to detect on radar showers should end
during the course of late afternoon and early evening, as the above
noted clearing line shifts eastward. During the overnight, the above
mentioned cold front should be nearing NW Alabama around midnight.
It will quickly translate eastward across the region, exiting NE
Alabama before sunrise Tuesday. Limited moisture before/after this
front should result in dry forecast tonight, with winds shifting to
the NW as the front passes.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A reality check will be upon us on Tuesday in the wake of this next
frontal passage. Gusty NW winds should increase into the 15-20 mph
range during the late morning before subsiding in the afternoon.
With cold air advection occurring during the course of the day, high
temps will only rise into the lower 60s; about 10 degrees below
seasonable norms around 72. Winds should slacken Tuesday evening, as
high pressure builds toward the NW Gulf coast from the Rockies. With
that, lows Tuesday night should cool into the mid/upper 30s. These
temperatures, clear skies, and light winds could be favorable for
patchy frost development before daybreak Wednesday. At this time,
only those colder spots and/or wind sheltered locations would be
susceptible to light frosting. We will hold off on a Frost Advisory
this go around given a great uncertainty and it is not expected till
late tomorrow night. Just in case, those with sensitive vegetation
should take precautions to protect them against frosty conditions.
The area overall will be subject frosts and/or freezes, occurring in
the latter half of October through early/mid November. Wednesday will
continue a cool trend, with high temperatures struggling into the
upper 50s under generally sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Clear and not as cool for Wednesday night with lows in the mid 30s
to low 40s. Plenty of sun will help moderate the atmosphere after
the mid week, resulting in high temperatures recovering back into the
mid/upper 60s. Similar conditions are forecast on Friday.

Another system in the westerlies will approach the Tennessee Valley
from the NW late Friday. This system will return rain chances to the
area for the upcoming weekend. Model timing this far out between the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian were in overall good agreement. Kept the rain
continuing into Saturday, but it should end on Sunday as the system
exits the region and drier air returns. Cold high pressure building
to the SE from Canada will bring cool temperatures for the end of
this week and beginning of the next weekend. Model trends, especially
from the GFS suggest this next system may be even cooler than the
one coming late tonight. Growing season ending chills are just around
the corner.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The lows clouds the were lingering behind the front have finally
cleared off to the east. Winds begin to shift back to the S/SW this
evening as another front approaches from the NW. This front should
move through the area before 12z with winds shifting to the W/NW
behind it. Expect another breezy day on Tuesday with gusts of
20-25mph possible. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF





For more information please visit our website
at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.