Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 301053
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
553 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016
For 12Z TAFs.
(Issued 212 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016)
Current synoptic pattern shows troughing aloft with weak surface
high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. Temps as of 2 am were
ranging anywhere from the upper 50s in some places to upper 60s in
others but the dew points in the upper 50s is really the noticeable
change. This pattern sustains itself today with dry weather, dew
points still in the 50s and highs near normal, around 90 degrees area
wide. Slightly warmer lows are expected tonight (in the middle 60s)
as an upper trough digs farther south over the region.
The trough pattern starts to break down Friday as the upper trough
continues east across the Great Lakes. Looks like this will drag a
cold front through the region shown in a brief decrease in 850 temps
and a slight wind shift and an increase in clouds. Highs will not be
impacted much and still reach into the lower 90s but lows will be
warmer Friday night, in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The pattern aloft
flattens out again Saturday with a weak 850mb high digging in from
the east and dew points rising into the upper 60s. A weak upper
disturbance will move across Saturday afternoon and may provide the
area with a few showers/thunderstorms. Still looks fairly dry so have
backed the wording down from scattered to isolated and confined it to
the afternoon hours.
Once the 850mb high breaks down, the broad mid to upper level ridge
centered over the SW Atlantic takes over and ushers in a
southwesterly return for for Sunday afternoon and warming highs into
the lower to middle 90s. Guidance is already indicating that coastal
convection on Sunday will develop which will likely cut us off from
deep moisture return.
Some disagreement on whether or not the gulf convection re-fires on
Monday exists and if it does, we could end up on the drier end of
things thunderstorm wise. At the same time, an upper disturbance
will be moving through the midwest with a surface low/front
developing across MO/AR/IL and draping showers/storms to our north.
These may have a hard time making it south Monday into Tuesday with
the strong 850 ridge still sitting over the SE states.
Overall the ECMWF is much drier than the GFS for the Sun through Wed
time frame with the GFS setting up more of a summertime/afternoon
convection pattern. Will continue the scattered mention on Sunday
but thinking really the scattered showers/storm won`t be possible
until Monday afternoon and linger through Monday evening. After
that...will continue scattered wording as the synoptic scale
differences are too great to increase confidence at this time. Highs
through the first part of the week will be in the lower to mid 90s
with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
For 12Z TAFs: A large area of high pressure over the region will
keep vfr conditions at both KMSL and KHSV thru the fcst period.
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