Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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782
FXUS64 KHUN 221118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME INTO
SUNDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE INCREASE
OF PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.20 INCH RANGE AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SHRA/TSRA MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TSRA FOR MONDAY AND WILL ADJUST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY
TUESDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES ON EARLY MONDAY TO BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS BETWEEN
14-15Z THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z TONIGHT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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