Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 260100 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
800 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TO DELAY CHC OF TSRA UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND LOWER NOW-09Z POP TO 20PCT
FOR ISOLD -SHRA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST AND LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT, HAVE DELAYED THE CHC OF TSRA
UNTIL AFTER 09Z. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 11Z OR AFTER,
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, THAT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TOWARD MORNING.
VERY MOIST SFC OBS COMING IN THIS EVENING ALSO POINT TO SOME
CONSIDERATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG. WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE STRATUS IDEA AT THIS POINT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
TSRA AND SHRA HAVE EXITED WELL TO THE EAST OF HSV AND MSL VCNTYS.
PROB OF REDEVELOPMENT AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM APPEARS QUITE LOW.
LOWER CIGS (MVFR CATEGORY) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08-10Z. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TSRA IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN AL ~10-11Z
INCLUDING KMSL AND TRACK EAST INTO THE KHSV VCNTY BY ~15Z. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
TSRA WILL BE MAINTAINED, SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST AS VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE DETERMINED BY PRECIP
TRENDS THAT OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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