Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 180821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE NRN
GOMEX, DEVELOPING AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF AN APPROACHING H5 TROF
CURRENTLY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 8Z. AS THIS FEATURE
DEEPENS, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOMEX AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING (BY 12Z), ALL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND (EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANOTHER WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG THE MS RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES IN THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST; ONE OVER SOCAL AND THE OTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE PERIOD,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED THERE, WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHOWERS
FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWRD. GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
(WRF/HRRR/NAM), HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LOCATIONS, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED POPS FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A WARM
AND DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE
WITH MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 45-50F, MAKING FOR GREAT WEATHER FOR
EASTER EGG HUNTS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THEY WILL PHASE JUST SOUTH/WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
AND WITH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING, POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, RIDGING AT THE SFC/ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH MORNING LOWS INCREASING THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 6O DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHERMAKER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/16Z AT KHSV AND
BETWEEN 18/12Z AND 18/15Z AT KMSL. CANNOT RULE OUT A -SHRA NEAR THE
TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO INCLUDED VCSH THEN. AFTERWARDS
EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  49  76  50 /  30  20   0   0
SHOALS        68  49  77  51 /  20  10   0   0
VINEMONT      65  47  75  51 /  30  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  46  74  48 /  30  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   65  46  74  49 /  30  20   0   0
FORT PAYNE    65  45  73  47 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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