Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 282302
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF PWAT AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WAS RESULTING IN NO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND WILL KEEP IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE
AN MCS THAT MIGHT SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SCENARIO. WILL HAVE IN A CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL HAVE IN HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A THIRD IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE REGION ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED MORE BY THE ECMWF
MODEL TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK/DRY CDFNT HAS MOVED ACROSS KMSL AND SHOULD BE
THRU KHSV BY 01Z. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CDFNT AS IT MOVES OUT
OF THE TN VALLEY ARND 06Z. HIGH/MID CLOUDS (VFR CEILINGS) WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CWA. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS ATTM SINCE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT BRINGING IN PCPN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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