Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 262327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
AS OF 19Z THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS WAS
STARTING TO ENTER NW ALABAMA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP HAS FALLEN OUT OF THESE
SHOWERS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IT MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HIRES GUIDANCE ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF NORTHERN ALABAMA BY LATE EVENING. A
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH TEMPS AROUND 40
DEGREES...COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
TO FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES OF LATE WE
HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON AND ANY TYPE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WOULD WARRANT SOME SORT OF FREEZE PRODUCT. HOWEVER...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE DECIDED HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FREEZE PRODUCT AT THIS TIME AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING.

BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN THE HANDLING OF A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE QUICKER OF THE MODELS IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM INTO THE NE US AND
BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND BRINGING RAIN IN LATER ON MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE RATHER ZONAL FLOW.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO CROSS K4A9 (AS OF 26/2330Z).
SHRA ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LOWER CAT TO IFR
BTWN 27/00Z-05Z AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR
THIS. A DROP TO IFR IS THEN EXPECTED BTWN 27/06Z-12Z AS CIGS LOWER
OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CLOUDS FROM MVFR TO VFR IS THEN
EXPECTED BTWN 27/11Z-15Z WITH VFR PREVAILING AFTER 15Z-17Z (LATER
OVER E AL/KHSV). MEANWHILE, N WINDS BTWN 10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25
KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06-07Z WHEN SOME RELAXING OF THE WINDS
TAKES PLACE.


SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.