Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 230010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
710 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY CAN BE
SEEN ON AREA RADARS PRIMARILY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO FAR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RETARD SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEFORE THEY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW NEAR MOBILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DECHIPER FROM THE MODELS.
MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI AND INDIANA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE MODELS PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH OF CULLMAN...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING KEEPING AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...TAKING OUT ISOLATED POP. THIS DRY TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE STRONGER 850 MB (30 KTS) AND 500 MB (40 KTS)
WIND FIELDS AND DECENT CAPE VALUES. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY EAST OF I65 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
PCPN IN KMSL TAF FOR THIS EVENING...ONLY IN THE KHSV TAF. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO PRODUCE MORE SCT
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.


07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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