Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 062322
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
522 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE WARMING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO THE 30 DEGREE
RANGE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AGAIN FALL TO NEAR
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SET UP WITH WARM ADVECTION NOTED. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM UP ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST INTO THE ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE RANGE. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY MAKE IT TO CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPS A CATEGORY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST MAX VALUES FOR SUNDAY. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT A SHORT WAVE INTO TEXAS
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
TEXAS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TIMING INVOLVING THE PRECIP EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY AROUND 06Z MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF KEEPING THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIP
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER END POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AREA. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING INCREASING
PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MODEL QPF VALUES.
WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DEPICT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED
UP POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL CONSISTENCY INVOLVING THIS SOLUTION.
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...AS A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SITUATION SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE OLD COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONTINUED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT S/SW WIND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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