Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 190923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  36  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
SHOALS        46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
VINEMONT      46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  35  49  35 /  10  70  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  37  51  39 /  20  70  20  10
FORT PAYNE    45  35  50  36 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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