Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
261
FXUS64 KHUN 122312 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
512 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
ALL IN ALL...A NICE END OF THE WORK WEEK CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS
AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLIER HAS MOVED OFF OF THE EAST COAST...
WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST OF THIS
EXITING SYSTEM...A VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S TODAY...SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOMORROW.

ALOFT...A RIDGING WEST/TROUGHING EAST PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE
GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS
EXTENDING SOUTH OF A DEEP LOW ACROSS THE JAMES BAY REGION. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARDS THE VANCOUVER ISLAND REGION
WILL BRING MORE PRECIP TO THIS REGION TO START A NEW WORK WEEK.

FIRST OF ALL...THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD TO THE SE REACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S. A BRISK NW WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 IN THE MORE EXPOSED/HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID/UPPER 30S
LOWER SPOTS. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BECOME EAST...THEN SOUTHERLY ON SUN
AS THE HIGH EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS
RECOVER SOMEWHAT INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE DURING SAT/SUN AS IT MOVES TO
THE ESE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER TEXAS LATE
SUN/EARLY MON...WITH IT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON. AREA TEMPERATURES MOST SPOTS AT THE
START OF THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. BUT...GIVEN
THAT COLD AIR SOMETIMES CAN BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT...SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN NE ALABAMA/OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
GROUP WHICH ARE CLOSER TO AN EAST COAST WEDGE HIGH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE PRECIP START PERIOD (IN PART
ASSISTED BY WET BULB COOLING)...MORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING EXPECTED ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS...IF THAT ARE EXPECTED.

AS WARMER CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED...THE PRECIP SHOULD BECOME AN ALL-
RAIN EVENT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING TUESDAY AS THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
GATHERS STEAM AND EXITS THE REGION. THE ECMWF WAS INDICATING A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING LOWER
END CHANCE RANGE OF RAIN FOR OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE LOWER PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS IN THIS CHILLY
ATMOSPHERE...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD RANGE
IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW ANTICYCLONES...
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT LEANING TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF...HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK PROBABLE BY NEXT FRIDAY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH PREDOM CLR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OUT OF THE NW MAY BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HRS
SAT. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NW NEAR 10-12KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.