Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 250214 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO DELAY FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND A FEW LOW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS (9 PM READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S)
PREVAILED THIS EVENING...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM E-SE TEXAS TO THE APPALACHIANS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE MOVING
AROUND UPPER RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO...WITH BRINGING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW.

TEMP/DEWPOINT SEPARATIONS (AT LEAST AT THE ASOS SITES) WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES THIS EVENING. BUT LAMP AND OLDER NAM/GFS GUIDANCE HAS
DRY BULB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...ADDITIONAL LATE NIGHT FOG/MIST FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. FOG
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THOSE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND WIND SHELTERED
SPOTS WILL MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FOG. THUS DELAYED FOG
FORMATION BY A FEW HOURS IN THIS UPDATE. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPS WERE MADE TOO. NEW UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN KMSL LOCATION NEAR TN RIVER...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO 3SM BR IN
THE LATE NIGHT/DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SW-W AROUND 5 KT SAT AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS
DELTA THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TN
VALLEY REGION REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (IN MOST AREAS).

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S MINS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNING`S READINGS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN
MENTION THE VALLEY/RIVER FOG WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THIS
WEEK.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE U/L RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS AND WENT WITH A BLEND THAT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ENERGY (REMNANTS OF TS ANA) COMING
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN AN INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TROUGH SO
EXPECT THE INITIAL FRONT TO EITHER HANG UP OR DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BIT COOLER END TO NEXT WEEK.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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