Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 221720 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For 18Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 921 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

After a chilly start this morning, temperatures were warming rapidly
across the TN Valley. As of 9 am, most locations were already in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Based on the diurnal trends, high temps today
should have no problem warming into the mid to upper 60s. High
pressure will continue to build into the region today, providing
mostly clear skies. Winds will also pick up through the day, though
not as high as what we observed yesterday. Locations across the east
may see winds gust as high as 20 mph. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the previous forecast package.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure will dominate this period with a continuation of dry wx
along with a slight warming trend. Morning lows will be in the lower
40s with aftn highs arnd 80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The long term starts off by continuing the dry and mild pattern with
an upper ridge and sprawling surface high pressure in place. This
will continue through Wednesday with both days having highs slightly
above normal, in the mid to upper 70s and above normal lows, in the
lower to middle 50s.

The pattern starts to shift Wednesday night as a piece of energy
under the ridge in the upper midwest quickly creates an upper trough
and associated surface low and frontal system. This will move into
the local area by Thursday morning. What happens next will depend on
what model you believe and is mostly because of how each model
positions the high off the east coast. The ECMWF leaves the upper
trough open and quickly lifts the surface low north with the high
pressure centered over the northeast. This will end the precip quite
quickly Thursday evening. The GFS shows a stronger high pressure
system over the eastern third of the country which causes the upper
low to cut off and meander south over the area. This would keep rain
in the forecast through Saturday. Given the fact the model blends
end the rain by 00z Friday, the GFS is clearly the outlier. Also
given the good performance of the ECMWF on this past week`s frontal
system, wouldn`t be surprised if that one verifies. Will not include
thunder at this time given the uncertainty but could see some
rumbles on Thursday with the frontal passage.

The front will have little effect on temps given the main temp
change/forcing will be to the north. Highs Thu-Sat will still be in
the lower to middle 70s with lows in the lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at the KMSL and
KHSV terminals. Northwest winds may gust at times at KHSV, however
gusts should remain at or below 20 kts. Winds will become light and
variable overnight.





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