Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 200525
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 957 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM GRIDS ARE IN GOOD CONDITION THIS EVENING...
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/KENTUCKY. LATEST WV/IR
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL BE
GREATEST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...AND CLOSER TO STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
OBSERVED MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. THIS...
COUPLED WITH LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A RATHER STRONG
INVERSION SEEN IN EVENING RAOB DATA FROM KOHX ARGUE FOR A REDUCTION
IN POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS WILL BE RETAINED FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA...AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE. ADDITIONAL STORMS -- ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING WAVE OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH -- MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
TOWARDS SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N/E OF THE
TERMINALS...AMDS MAY BE REQUIRED TO INTRODUCE VCTS/CB BTWN 10-14Z.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
TO THE NE...WITH BKN LAYERS OF SC/AC BTWN 3500-8000 FT. A LOWER LAYER
OF STRATOCU MAY ALSO DEVELOP ARND 1500 FT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VSBY IN BR ARND SUNRISE. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...
WITH SCT HIGH-BASED CU AND A WEST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS -- BACKING TO SSW
TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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