Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 010200 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
900 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO SOME VALLEYS AND AREAS NEAR RIVERS LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH MINOR TEMP/DEWPOINT TWEAKS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. BEFORE IT ALL WENT AWAY...A LONE SHOWER
THAT FORMED RIGHT AFTER SUNSET PRODUCED A TRACE OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS
OF MADISON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY HUNTSVILLE. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH EARLY/MID EVENING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...LONGER LATE SUMMER NIGHTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND MORE SKY
THAN CLOUDS...PRE DAWN FOG FORMATION LOOKS POSSIBLE. OUTPUT FROM
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE LAMP SHOW THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THE 18Z
GFS. ADDED PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN/NEAR RIVERS AND VALLEYS FOR THE
09Z (4 AM) TIMEFRAME THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE. DID MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. NEW FORECASTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINING
FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO TUE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF/TEMPO -BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUE...AS MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SHORT WAVE
FROM YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S AT 19Z. EXPECT LOW TO MID CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ENOUGH CAPPING OCCURRING AS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO BASICALLY KEEP THE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE
FORECAST. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES THAT THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA TIME SECTIONS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY...THE GFS MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ECMWF
MODEL...BOTH DEPICT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWEST DOWN THE APPALACHIANS FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...EXTENDING WESTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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