Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 010818 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
318 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NOTE...RESENT AFD FOR A CHANGE TO THE START TIME OF FREEZE WARNING
TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING (FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SUNDAY MRNG).

WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MRNG LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM DUE TO WRAP
ARND CLOUDS OVER MOST OF NE AL AND OUR TN ZONES. AT 2 AM TEMPS ACROSS
THE CWA WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 20S DEWPOINTS. TIME
SECTIONS/MODELS SOUNDINGS/STLT TRENDS DO SHOW THAT THESE CLOUDS COULD
HANG ARND MOST OF NE AL/SRN MID TN THRU MID MRNG OR PERHAPS A LITTLE
LONGER. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING GOING FOR THIS MRNG
BECAUSE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SEVERAL LOCATIONS WEST OF I65 THAT COULD
DROP TO 31 OR 32. HOWEVER SUNDAY MRNG LOOKS MUCH BETTER FOR A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS/CLR SKIES AND MRNG LOWS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN THIS MRNG IS THE CHC
OF SOME FLURRIES OVER OUR EXTREME NERN ZONES. FOR NOW DID NOT HAVE
ANY PCPN/FLURRIES IN ZONES AFTER 12Z TODAY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLR
SKIES TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND. HIGHS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
ARND 70. MRNG LOWS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COOL...WITH LOWS ON MONDAY
IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOW 40S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BY
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A CDFNT TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY. ATTM THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN. THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS FOR THURSDAY MRNG BASED
ON GFS. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT LOOKS DRY ATTM. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE ARND 70 WITH MRNG LOWS NEAR 50. WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA SINCE
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. NO
FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY
MID AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20
KTS ARE LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
SUNSET...WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KTS.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    49  27  55  32 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        50  28  55  33 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      49  27  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  48  26  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   48  26  55  32 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    48  26  53  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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