Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 222325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO GENERALLY THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS. TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDERING
COUNTIES FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY EASTWARD FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
COOLER NAM AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE AND THE WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW INVOLVING INTRODUCING PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE PREVIOUS FEW COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAVE LEFT MVFR FOG/MIST IN BEFORE DAYBREAK
THU AT BOTH TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING AND LIGHT ENE
WINDS INTO THUR AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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