Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 092024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN STRONG LAPSE
RATE REGION ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY THE
PRECIP. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT 20Z. HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MARSHALL COUNTY AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL 06Z.

BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHTS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 06Z. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS LIFT THE PRECIP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.

THE MODELS PROGRESSIVELY LIFT THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO SET UP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY BETWEEN
00Z-06Z THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS INTO MAINLY
THE MID 40S EXPECTED. AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BUILD SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WESTWARD WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. THIS IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY SUNDAY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE STILL FIVE DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES FOR EITHER
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW FROM MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH TEMPS.
THE PRECIP AND SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FOR TUESDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN
ALABAMA TAF SITES KHSV/KMSL THOUGH ABOUT 01-03Z. ALTHOUGH SHSN
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING...SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODIC BURSTS OF BRIEF MDT SHSN MAY CAUSE VIS/CEILING
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE OFFICIAL
TAFS...IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHSN...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHSN ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 01-03Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
(MDT CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS) THRU ABOUT 06-08Z...FOLLOWING BY VFR.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    20  37  24  47 /  20  10   0   0
SHOALS        21  38  25  48 /  20  10   0   0
VINEMONT      21  37  23  46 /  20  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  18  35  21  44 /  30  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   22  36  23  45 /  30  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    19  35  22  45 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ008>010.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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