Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 012031
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
231 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS MISSOURI THROUGH LITTLE ROCK AND THEN
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN WAS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
RAIN/ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTH ALABAMA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS UNTIL AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. THE HRRR AND
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING THAT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION/DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH QUICKLY FALLING
TEMPS. A WEAK SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY AROUND 09Z. WILL STILL KEEP IN A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. AM EXPECTING LITTLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW DUE TO
WARM SOIL TEMPS AND SHORT DURATION OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY...AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TEMP CHANGE DURING THE DAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES DURING THIS SAME
TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS NOW KEEP THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING ON THE SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW INITIATED
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS MODEL TRENDING.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. WILL AT LEAST INITIATE A RAIN-SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MY TENNESSEE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO THE GFS
TEMP SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY. WANT TO SEE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
LOWERING TEMPS MUCH MORE FOR THURSDAY. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BY 00Z SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE COMPROMISED INVOLVING TEMPS...AS
THE GFS MODEL IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL TO ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. THE MODELS SHIFT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY...AND WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS OF 18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TODAY...OTHERWISE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 20KTS NEAR
06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW
AND HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 09-12Z
MONDAY BUT TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  38  23  47 /  80  20   0   0
SHOALS        32  37  23  48 /  80  20   0   0
VINEMONT      34  38  24  47 /  80  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  30  36  22  45 /  80  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   35  38  24  46 /  80  20   0   0
FORT PAYNE    34  38  23  45 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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