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000
FXUS64 KHUN 280220 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A
CDFNT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A
DIGGING MID-LVL SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM
PRODUCTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BOUYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE STORMS. DUE TO A SIFNICIANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINUED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMEMTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU ~05-06Z AT
KHSV/KMSL UNTIL A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE IN THE AREA. COVERAGE
OF SHRA IS EXPECTED TO BE SCTD WITH THE EXTENT OF TSRA PERHAPS ONLY
ISOLD. THUS...KEPT VFR PREVAILING CONDS AT TAF SITES FOR NOW. IF A
STRONG CELL IMPACTS A TAF SITE HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN HVY
RAIN CORES. TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN NERN AL...AND WAS INCLUDED
IN KHSV TAF. SW WINDS ~10-15KT WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV/KMSL UNTIL
~05-06Z...WITH WSHFT IN ASSOC/W CDFNT ~07-08Z.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.