Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 120914
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
314 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING WITH
A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS OF 09Z AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVERNIGHT
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...LIKELY
DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

NW FLOW MOVES IN BY THE AFTERNOON USHERING IN COLD ADVECTION ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
LINGER WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND. THINK THE CURRENT LOWS ARE A GENERAL MIDDLE GUIDANCE AND IF
CLEAR SKIES OCCUR TEMPS THEY COULD DROP A FEW DEG LOWER. WINDS WILL
NOT BE DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT (HELPING THE LOWS TO NOT COMPLETELY
BOTTOM OUT) AND EVEN GUST TO AROUND 15 MPH. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

GUIDANCE CAME IN EVEN A DEG OR TWO COOLER FOR SATURDAY`S HIGHS IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE STRONG 1035MB ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDING IN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN SOME AREAS AND WILL GET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST
SPOTS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN TONIGHT WITH
THE SAME CAVEAT IN TERMS OF CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20MPH ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S AND IN THE TEENS SAT NIGHT.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS A WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...TO GENERALLY ERODE THE ARCTIC AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE HELP OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN EXCEPT
FOR AREAS IN NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN WHERE SLEET/SNOW COULD MIX IN AT
TIMES AS LOWS DROP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SLEET PELLETS MIXED IN EVERYWHERE AS THE SURFACE COOLS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LATEST
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AS
WELL AND SUPPORT THIS FORECAST.

THE LATEST ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY OVER TEXAS WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER LA/MS MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS
RIGHT NOW ARE 1-1.5 INCHES BUT THIS MAY BE INCREASED IF THIS TRACK
OF THE LOW HOLDS. LINGERING PRECIP TUE MORNING IN THE NORTHERN MOST
AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN BUT THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SHOULDN`T
MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 30S. ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT TUESDAY EVENING.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WED-FRI AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 60S POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA BUT
NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER MUCH BELOW THE 10KFT LEVEL. WINDS WILL
FAVOR A E/NE DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE THEN SWITCH TO NW AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  24  34  22 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        53  25  35  22 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      54  22  34  19 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  50  20  30  19 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   54  23  34  20 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    53  22  34  20 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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