Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 261539 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1039 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...To raise high temperatures and pop near TN/AL state line
this afternoon.


Looking at mesoscale model guidance and observations/trends, it looks
as though two primary initation points for showers/storms would be
the focus for activity today. (1 - Weak convergence boundary over
from Ripley south to Kosciusko in Mississippi   2 - Convective
activity developing along an outlflow boundary from showers and
thunderstorm activity developing over eastern Missouri.)

In between over Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee,
mesoscale models are similar keeping fairly strong subsidence in
place in the lower levels of the atmosphere until later this
afternoon. Therefore, not expecting much development with any
precipitation until after 20Z when some positive omega values
develop. This activity should only be isolated and in northwesern
Alabama, close to intiation area 1. Higher coverage will be mainly be
in MS.

Activity initiated from area 2 will push into Southern Middle TN and
locations near the AL/TN state line from the north later this
afternoon (after 3 or 4 pm). We will be unstable enough, but models
weaken this activity as it pushes in. Likely due to a very weak CAPE
hinted at aloft by mesoscale forecast soundings. However, given
forecast instability parameters and very moist surface conditions
that are in place (and will continue to advect into extreme
northwestern Alabama through the afternoon hours), isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity looks possible late this
afternoon in nw Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. The main
threats with any stronger storms that develop will be gusty winds to
around 40 mph and frequent lightning. Thus added a 20 to 30 pop in nw
Alabama and our Southern Middle Tennessee counties.

Partly cloudy conditions should be prevalent through much of the day,
until the late afternoon hours in northwest Alabama. Temperatures
are already in the 79 to 85 degree range across much of the forecast
area. Huntsville may be on its way to 94 degrees. Most locations will
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Luckily dewpoints should remain
comfortable east of Lawrence county in Alabama. This should make the
heat uncomfortable but bearable today.



(Issued 710 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: VFR conds currently observed at HSV/MSL should prevail
thru the valid TAF period, with sct cu expected to develop later
this morning beneath a gradually increasing coverage of ci.
Otherwise, lower stratus will likely return to the region prior to
sunrise Friday but will only indicate this with sct030 at this point.
A few shra/tsra will be psbl thru the period across NW AL, but
uncertainty regarding coverage/timing prevents inclusion of VCTS/VCSH
in TAFMSL. Sfc winds will range from 140-200 degrees, with speeds of
5-10 kts.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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