


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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954 FXUS64 KHUN 131942 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Showers and storms have developed for the most part around the edges of the local forecast area. The exceptions have been a few weak cells in northeast AL and in our southern middle TN counties. As we progress through the rest of the afternoon, storms over southern TN and eastern MS will slowly push northeastward into NW AL. Based on current obs, there really is not much lightning associated with these storms, therefore not expecting much impact as these push east. The main concern would be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. As the sun goes down, expect storms to dissipate resulting in a calm and tranquil night. Lows tonight dip down into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Under clear skies there is a low chance of fog development, but it should be contained to sheltered valleys and along area waterways. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Heat and humidity continues to build heading into the new workweek as the high pressure over the Gulf strengthens. With temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat index values rise into the 100-108F range. The highest values will be along and west of I-65. If the trends continue a heat advisory may be needed for some or all of the local forecast area. As it typical this time of year, there are low to medium chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Not expecting severe storms, but any stronger thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Storms will end after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. However, not much relief from the heat overnight is expected with lows dipping only into the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Without any significant synoptic features to disrupt our current pattern, the forecast will remain largely unchanged as we head into the long term forecast. For a majority of the forecast period we will again find ourself sandwiched between mid level troughing to our north and ridging to our south. At the surface this will amount to hot and humid conditions with continued daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms. While the weather conditions listed above have become quite familiar for residents of the TN Valley this summer, their inherent risk still warrants discussing. Starting with heat and humidity, high pressure to our SE will allow high dew points in the mid 70s to remain situated. This paired with temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day will easily push apparent temperatures above 100 degrees for most locations. We will be keeping a close on on Wednesday and Thursday should a Heat Advisory be needed. Regardless of any heat products, individuals should continue to practice proper heat and sun safety each day. While we will retain a low to medium (30-60%) chance of afternoon shower and thunderstorms each day, the good news is that we are not forecasting a widespread severe risk at all in the long term forecast. Rather, diurnal heating will allow for significant CAPE each afternoon with outflow boundaries being a primary forcing mechanism for storms. Storms that do fire up will be capable so gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. For those with outdoor activities next week make sure to remain weather aware and remember when thunder roars go indoors. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period as afternoon. After Cu field has remained mainly away from the terminals, but have added a TEMPO group for the potential for some afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. After sunset chances decrease and VFR conditions return. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...GH