Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 012333 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

For 00Z TAFs.


(Issued 352 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016)
Nearly all of the showers have remained north of the forecast area
today except for one that developed in Jackson Co and moved through
northern DeKalb a few hours ago. Otherwise scattered cloud cover
continues to filter in from the northwest ahead of a cold front.

The front is currently draped across northwest TN and will slowly
make southward progress into the area this evening. There are a few
showers currently in middle TN ahead of the front and cannot rule
out that some activity will reach our forecast area by this evening.
However, did remove the slight chance of precip overnight tonight.
There is some moisture pooling along the front and in our northwest
counties but without the additional help of diurnal heating, lift
seems to be too weak at this time.

If you are looking forward to some rainfall to help with the
drought, chances increase through the weekend heading into the
workweek/4th of July holiday. On Saturday, as the upper-level trough
pushes towards the east coast, an approaching disturbance in weak
northwesterly flow combined with the lingering front could develop a
few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. The same goes
for Sunday, and with southerly flow returning, precip chances will
increase throughout the day. A few strong storms are possible this
weekend, especially on Sunday afternoon. The main hazards in the
strongest storms would be strong winds and heavy rainfall.

As PWATs climb to close to 2 inches Sunday into Monday, the heat
index values return back into the upper 90s/lower 100s starting on
Sunday. These values will continue through the workweek, so be sure
to remember to take heat safety precautions if outdoors. As another
boundary and upper-level disturbance approaches the TN Valley on
Monday, precip chances will increase heading into Tuesday morning,
leaving a potentially soggy forecast for fireworks. A few storms
could become strong with the same hazards as the weekend, strong
winds and heavy rainfall.

Showers will diminish Tuesday evening, however it`s not the last
mention of rain in the forecast period. A slight chance remains
throughout the workweek even though a ridge builds into the NE
Gulf/SW Atlantic.



For 00Z TAFs:
A weak frontal boundary will slowly move in a north to south manner
across the area tonight. A few showers and/or storms cannot be
totally ruled out this evening. Light winds and mostly clear skies
could produce brief MVFR fog/mist at the terminals around daybreak
Saturday. Any fog that forms will quickly dissipate shortly after
sunrise. Generally insignificant differences between the airmass
north/south of the front should result in only isolated shower and
thunderstorm formation, mainly during Saturday afternoon.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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