Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281931
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection,
mainly starting Thursday afternoon, with better chances Friday and
into the weekend as a frontal boundary sags into the region. Any
risk of strong to severe storms, probably more with the frontal
boundary; and then finally a temperature forecast with highs
warming initially, then cooling with the rain and clouds, and the
front.

Currently, the surface high pressure was to the east of AR and a
southeast wind flow into AR was bringing a gradual moisture
increase to the state. 12Z KLZK sounding indicated this flow,
while the precip water value was only around 1 inch, with a dry
area noted in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. While surface dew
point temperatures were in the 60s with a few around 70 degrees.
Aloft, the weakening upper high pressure over the region shows
currently most of the lift over the central Plains and upper Mid-
West, where convection was noted. A more upper zonal flow was
setting up for the next several days. A cumulus cloud field has
set up over AR along the south flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

The forecast will start dry the rest of Wednesday and much of
Thursday, where only an afternoon to early evening isolated
shower of thunderstorm may be seen during the heat of the day.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, while lows in
the 60s to a few around 70. On Thursday, a frontal boundary near
the gulf states is forecast to lift more north, and with some
possible upper energy along with it, could affect southeast AR, a
bit more convection may be seen.

Late Thursday night to early Friday, a frontal boundary and upper
lift sag toward AR, and then drift into AR on Friday and Saturday.
Better convection chances will be seen with this feature. Due to
the nearly zonal flow aloft, there is some uncertainty in how far
south this boundary will make it, and models show this trend. The
risk of strong to severe storms appears to be isolated and low at
this time. Rain amounts will also be quite variable, from 1 to 2
inches and possible higher amounts depending on the location of
the boundary, Friday through Sunday. While the northern half of
AR is expected to have the best chance for rain.

Temperatures will be close to normal values to start, then cool a
bit in the those areas that see more clouds and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night through Wednesday

Frontal boundary will be stalled over us at the beginning of the
period, with a possible MCS moving to Arkansas during the
overnight hours Friday night and early Saturday. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see another one kick across the area Saturday night,
as a shortwave comes out of the plains and interacts with the
front.

By Monday, ridging will attempt to re-establish itself over the
region, pushing the front back to the north. This won`t last though,
as a trough digs down into the southern plains, and the ridge
flattens out. This will push the front back into the region around
Wednesday, keeping rain chances in the forecast.

Temperatures will largely remain close to or a little below average.
Daytime highs will be dependent on cloud cover and any rain that
falls.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  88  73  88 /   0  10  10  50
Camden AR         72  89  75  91 /   0  30  20  40
Harrison AR       68  88  70  85 /   0   0  10  60
Hot Springs AR    71  89  74  90 /   0  20  10  40
Little Rock   AR  72  89  75  90 /   0  20  10  30
Monticello AR     71  87  74  89 /  10  30  20  40
Mount Ida AR      71  87  74  88 /   0  10  10  40
Mountain Home AR  70  88  72  86 /   0  10  10  60
Newport AR        72  89  74  88 /   0  10  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     71  88  74  89 /   0  20  20  30
Russellville AR   72  90  74  89 /   0  10  10  50
Searcy AR         70  89  74  89 /   0  10  10  40
Stuttgart AR      71  88  74  89 /   0  20  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...57


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