Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222351 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
551 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The last vestiges of widespread MVFR ceilings is clearing this
hour. Expect SKC at all sites by 02z at the latest. Forecast
soundings indicate low and mid level drying as high pressure
begins to build aloft. With good radiational conditions tonight,
this suggests that flight categories will be affected by ground
fog tonight. Have this indicated in the TAFs. The sites most
likely to experience IFR or LIFR will be in central and southern
Arkansas. Do have both 1SM visibility and BKN006 ceilings mentioned
at these sites, but would not be surprised to see both of those go
lower. A return to VFR levels is expected by around 15z at all
sites tomorrow, with southerly gradient winds picking up to
10-12kt with gusts into the 16-20kt range expected, especially up
north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 249 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 )

Short term...Tonight through Friday night.

Temperature contrast is quite evident across the state at this time
with a persistent band of low clouds over central Arkansas keeping
temperatures in check. Where the clouds have scoured out, temps have
soared into the mid 70s. Band of clouds will dissipate enough for
some warming this afternoon in all areas.

Clouds and fog are expected to return tonight but not with the
coverage and depth that was experienced this morning. Another mild
night is expected with widespread lows in the 50s as southerly winds
return.

Upper level low pressure will be over southern Florida Thursday
morning with another deep upper level trough over the northwest quad
of the nation. Western trough will move eastward increasing the
southerly flow over the state. Meanwhile, surface low pressure will
be developing over the western high plains and between these two
features, near record breaking highs will be possible as many areas
of southern and central Arkansas flirt with 80 degrees.

The aforementioned low will race off to the northeast on Friday and
drag a frontal boundary through the state as it does. Precipitation
is not expected with this system but a significant punch of drier
air will follow it. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler behind
this boundary on Friday. With breezy conditions and this dry air,
there will be an elevated risk of wildfires on Friday, especially
over the west where the effects of this frontal boundary will occur
first.

High pressure will then settle over the area Friday night with much
cooler conditions than what we have seen of late expected by the end
of the period. Widespread lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s are
expected.

Long Term...Saturday through Wednesday night

Overall the models are in generally good agreement through the long
term. Only made some minor tweaks to the going forecast...most
notably to increase pops with the storm system Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Long term begins with the aforementioned cold front well through the
state and a more seasonable air mass in place across Arkansas. High
pressure will be to the west of the state bringing northerly surface
winds to the area. Temperatures on Saturday will be near normal for
this time of year.

A mostly dry weekend is on tap with high pressure gradually sliding
east. By Sunday...high pressure will be centered east of the state
with mostly zonal flow aloft. This high pressure will bring
southerly surface winds to the state resulting in a gradual increase
in moisture and slightly above normal temperatures. This will set
the stage for a storm system set to move into the state late Sunday
night/early Monday morning. This will bring another round of
rain...but with flow aloft perpendicular to the front it will be a
quick mover and precipitation will come to an end by Monday
afternoon.

Dry weather will be short lived as the pattern remains quite
progressive and yet another storm system will push into the state on
Tuesday. This system will keep rain chances in the forecast through
a good portion of the day on Wednesday.

Fire weather...

Breezy conditions are expected Friday with considerably drier air
spreading over the state behind a dry frontal system. Humidity is
expected to drop into the 20th percentile across the west during the
afternoon increasing the fire potential. Fine fuel moisture will
have plenty of time on Thursday to dry out and will likely be
receptive to carrying surface fire. Borderline red flag conditions
could occur during the afternoon and the situation will continue to
be monitored.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64


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