Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 141122
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED AREAS OF PL AND -FZRA ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH 1630Z. OVERALL TREND OF CIGS WILL BE TO
LOWER...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BECOMING LIFR AT MOST LOCATIONS
AFTER 00Z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LOCAL RADARS INDICATE A RECENT EXPANSION OF LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODIFIED 00Z SOUNDING DATA STILL SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTER MIX ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY
MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE NATURAL STATE DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WELL. FOR
TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE STATE...WITH
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE RIDING DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE.
THIS ENERGY COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY NE
OF THE AREA SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BETWEEN
NORTHWEST FLOW TO RIDGING IN THE H500 RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SRLY WINDS AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...SOME 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE WARM READINGS WILL
HELP MAKE IT FEEL MORE SPRING LIKE OUTSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE THURSDAY AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE STATE. COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
ADDITION TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED
TO ADD POPS GOING FORWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  34  53  39 /  50  40  20  10
CAMDEN AR         59  49  61  41 /  50  80  80  10
HARRISON AR       41  32  58  39 /  50  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  42  61  41 /  50  60  50   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  41  57  42 /  60  60  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  50  58  42 /  50  80  90  10
MOUNT IDA AR      51  40  62  39 /  40  50  30   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  31  55  36 /  50  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        39  34  51  37 /  50  50  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     54  44  56  41 /  60  80  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  37  59  38 /  50  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         43  37  55  37 /  60  60  40  10
STUTTGART AR      49  41  54  41 /  60  70  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99


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