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000
FXUS64 KLZK 290500
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN THE UPPER NW FLOW AND FROM THE CONVECTION
BLOW OFF CLOUDS...ARE STREAMING IN OVER AR. THESE CLODS WILL THIN
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF CONVECTION SOURCE. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL COOL
TO THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AR...WHILE THE 60S OVER THE REST OF THE
STATE. A COOL AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTD TO FILTER INTO THE FA THIS AFTN
THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT OVR THE PAST 24 HRS. MID AFTN TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

THE ASSOCD HIGH PRES SYS WL SETTLE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...THIS
WL KEEP TEMPS AT BLW NORMAL LVLS THRU THE SHORT TERM. DRY CONDS WL
ALSO PERSIST THRU TUE...BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDS RETURN FOR WED AND
THU.

A DVLPG STORM SYS WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES BY WED...WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHCS INCRSG OVER TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS RMN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT REGARDING THE ONSET AND EXTENT OF THE RESULTING
OVERRUNNING RAINFALL THAT WL DVLP. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND GEM
STILL INDC THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL WL AFFECT MUCH OF CNTRL AND
SRN AR...WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FCST TRENDS. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BLW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES TO START THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE TROUGH
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY WARM...YET STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE STATE. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING WILL OCCUR...WITH
THE EURO A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT...DID KEEP WITH THE
FORECAST AND MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  83  63  81 /   0   0   0  30
CAMDEN AR         64  88  64  84 /   0   0   0  40
HARRISON AR       58  82  60  77 /   0   0  10  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  86  64  80 /   0   0  10  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  85  64  81 /   0   0  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     65  86  63  84 /   0   0   0  40
MOUNT IDA AR      62  86  63  79 /   0   0  10  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  83  61  78 /   0   0   0  40
NEWPORT AR        61  82  62  80 /   0   0   0  30
PINE BLUFF AR     64  84  63  82 /   0   0   0  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  86  64  79 /   0   0  10  50
SEARCY AR         62  84  63  81 /   0   0   0  40
STUTTGART AR      64  82  62  81 /   0   0   0  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56