059
FXUS64 KLZK 132351
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

-Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun-
 Mon.

-Hot and humid conditions will become more widespread by mid-week
 with many areas expected to see heat indices of 100 to 105 at
 times.

-There will be continued chances for widespread rain and
 thunderstorms through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the
region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will
lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms
across the state today and again Monday. There will be some breaks
in precip at times, but several rounds of precip are expected
with the bulk of the activity influenced by daytime heating and
afternoon instability. Remnant boundaries and sfc features like
the MCV just to the west will help focus precip and may encourage
activity to persist into the overnight hours. Weak shear with PW
values in excess of 2 inches will contribute to some of these
storms producing very heavy rainfall.

With today and tomorrow`s increased coverage in precip and cloud
cover, temperatures may remain near to below normal across a good
chunk of the state. The areas most likely to see these reduced
temperatures include west and northern portions of the state.

Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as
the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and
SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state. This
will lead to a general increase in temperatures and limit precip
chances to isolated, diurnally driven activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

SHRA/TSRA are expected to increase in coverage overnight across
Cntrl/ Srn sites as precip moves out of the ArkLaTex`s region
towards the NE. A mix of MVFR/VFR conds are expected with
possibly IFR conds within/near TSRA activity. Precip should
decrease in coverage and intensity by predawn hours, with mentions
of PROB30s in the afternoon with diurnal heating for Cntrl/Nrn
terminals. Winds will be W/SW at around 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  90  72  92 /  30  50  10  40
Camden AR         72  92  73  95 /  30  40  10  30
Harrison AR       68  84  69  87 /  20  40  20  40
Hot Springs AR    71  90  72  93 /  40  50  10  40
Little Rock   AR  75  91  75  94 /  30  50  10  30
Monticello AR     75  93  75  96 /  20  40  10  30
Mount Ida AR      70  88  71  90 /  50  60  20  40
Mountain Home AR  69  86  70  88 /  20  50  10  40
Newport AR        73  91  74  93 /  20  40  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     73  92  74  94 /  20  40  10  30
Russellville AR   71  88  72  91 /  40  50  20  40
Searcy AR         73  91  72  93 /  30  40  10  30
Stuttgart AR      75  91  75  93 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70