Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
559 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in advance of an
approaching cold front that will move through the state late in
the period. The convection will slowly progress east through the
taf period but will clear all terminals by early Monday morning.
Widespread MVFR to possible IFR conditions are expected to develop
as the convection moves across the terminals followed by a return
to VFR conditions at the end of the period. Moisture wrapping
around the upper low will spread low clouds across the north
Monday afternoon. SE winds will turn to the SW and then more west
with time.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 310 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018)

Updated to include TOR Watch #1 for portions of the western and NW
CWA. No other changes expected.


SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Scattered SHRA continues to develop across western sections of the
CWA this afternoon as moisture levels continue to rise across the
state. Dewpts have now warmed into the mid 50s to mid 60s across the
area...with temps in the upper 50s to near 70. The overall forecast
thinking hasn`t changed much...with the primary forecast concern the
possible SVR weather tonight into early Mon morning.

Expect more organized and widespread SHRA/TSRA to develop west of AR
late this afternoon into the early evening hrs along a pre-frontal
trough...then spread east into west/NW AR this evening. Expect this
line of convection to move east over central sections of the state
by near or just after midnight...stretching north to south across
the state. This line of convection will have moved east of the state
by just after sunrise Mon.

At this time...some strong to SVR storms will be possible with this
line of convection this evening into the overnight period. Looks
like the best chances for seeing SVR weather will be across the
western half to two-thirds of the CWA through about 8-12Z Mon.
Forecast SRH values look quite impressive just ahead of this
convection...with forecast 0-1km SRH over 400 to near 500 m2/s2.
Forecast SFC based instability looks to be the limiting factor in
the overall threat for SVR storms tonight. However...there may just
be enough SFC based convection to generate some damaging winds with
the strongest storms. There will also be a threat for brief...weak
tornadoes along the leading edge of the convective line given this
high forecast SRH.

The threat for SVR weather will decrease by Mon morning as the
convection moves east of the state. Expect drier and more stable air
to move into the state for Mon...though some breezy W and NW winds
will remain possible through Mon afternoon. The drier air will
remain in place through Tue as well...though winds will less

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Sfc high pressure wl be in control acrs AR at the start of the PD.
Temps wl be close to seasonal norms as zonal flow aloft keeps any
arctic air well to our north. Temps wl slowly modify later this week
as the sfc high shifts E of AR and S/SELY wind flow returns.

By Fri, low lvl moisture wl be working Nwd into AR as south wind
flow further increases. Meanwhile, a new storm system wl be
organizing to our W and wl eventually be affecting the area heading
into next weekend. Good rain chances wl return to the fcst Fri night
and Sat as an assocd CDFNT works acrs the state. Precip chances
quickly end fm the W Sat night. Colder air moving in behind the
front could cause a brief wintry mix over parts of N AR before
ending. Drier conds return to close out the weekend.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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