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852
FXUS64 KLZK 170732
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

A line of SHRA and some TSRA stretch from ERN OK into portions of
WRN AR...then NE into north central and NERN AR this morning as new
convection continues to develop along and just behind a SWD moving
outflow boundary. Will continue to see convection persist and
develop along/behind this outflow as it continues to drop south this
morning. Best POPs will transition into central sections of the
state by sunrise...then later in the morning further south. Coverage
may decrease over time however.

There may be a break in the convection late in the morning...with
redevelopment possible this afternoon across SRN portions of the
CWA...with maybe some isolated development a bit further north. NRN
sections of the state should become dry by this afternoon as drier
more stable air filters in from the north. The primary threats with
this convection will be mainly some locally heavy rainfall...with
the best potential for seeing the heaviest rainfall across WRN
sections of the area through this morning. Otherwise...some gusty
winds could also be seen.

Overnight tonight...precip chances should be fairly low...with maybe
some lingering SHRA/TSRA possible over the far south/SE. For Fri...a
new upper level shortwave will drop SE towards WRN/NWRN AR...with
some increase rain chances expected for the WRN and NWRN counties.
Another wave of convection may also develop late in the short term
period in this same region...with again best POPs expected across
the WRN counties. May also see some potential for locally heavy
rainfall in the WRN counties...especially by late in the short term
period. However...given the overall QPF amounts generally less than
2 inches through 12Z Sat...a Flash Flood watch doesn`t look
warranted at this time. Even so...an isolated flash flood threat may
exist.

Heat index values will be highest across the central and SRN
sections of the CWA both days...though will remain below 105
degrees. As a result...a heat adv will not be needed at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Ridging will be centered to the south or southwest during the
long term periods. Surface frontal boundary will remain quasi-
stationary or oscillate back and forth near the region, as upper
flow will be quasi-zonal.

Southerly winds will keep low level moisture fairly high, and
disturbances moving through in the mean flow will interact with the
high humidity and daytime heating and will allow for a continued,
largely diurnally-driven chance of showers and thunderstorms.

By mid-week, ridge will start to retrograde to the west, which will
send a cold front into the state, increasing the chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain close to average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  20
Camden AR         88  74  94  72 /  60  20  30  40
Harrison AR       87  64  88  68 /  30  10  30  30
Hot Springs AR    89  74  92  73 /  60  10  30  40
Little Rock   AR  89  73  91  72 /  50  10  20  30
Monticello AR     90  75  92  75 /  40  20  20  20
Mount Ida AR      89  72  91  71 /  50  10  40  40
Mountain Home AR  89  64  90  68 /  40  10  20  20
Newport AR        88  67  88  70 /  50  10  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     88  74  91  73 /  40  20  20  30
Russellville AR   90  69  92  71 /  50  10  30  30
Searcy AR         89  69  90  70 /  50  10  20  30
Stuttgart AR      87  71  89  72 /  40  20  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57