Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231943
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

A few high clouds drifting in from the northwest across the state
this afternoon while the upper low that helped bring storms to the
area this weekend was making its way northeast across the Ohio
River Valley. Northwest flow aloft is in place over the state and
a dry cold front will make its way across the state this evening
through the overnight hours.

Pressure gradient will be amplified behind the front, especially on
Tuesday with a strong surface low expected to move toward the Great
Lakes area and high pressure settling in over much of the west and
into the Southern Plains. Expect NW winds of 20-25 mph with
higher gusts, especially during the afternoon Tuesday.

With deep troughing aloft and surface high pressure shifting closer
to the area, much colder air will be seen for the day Tuesday and
especially Tuesday night. Daytime highs may not climb out of the 50s
in northern Arkansas without the aid of cloud cover or precipitation
which is fairly impressive. As the wind lessens Tuesday night and
high pressure slides closer to the state, one of the coldest nights
of the season will be seen as lows dip down into the 30s for a good
portion of the state. Some patchy frost will be seen.

Northwesterly flow aloft and dry/cool air will continue for
Wednesday. Surface high pressure will be centered southwest of the
area, providing westerly winds, still a bit strong at times.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

Quite a few changes will be taking place during the extended term,
namely with temperatures.

The term will begin with a return southerly surface flow in place,
with another cold front approaching the area from the northwest. The
return flow will not have much time to get established prior to the
arrival of the next front, and consequently low level moisture
levels will not increase all that much, with dewpoints only climbing
up into the mid 40s.

An associated upper level trof will also move into the area with the
front. The models are showing quite a bit of differences on the
timing of the front right now, with the GFS and Canadian models
bringing the front into Arkansas late Thursday night, with the ECMWF
a bit slower.

With surface moisture levels on the dry side, I have continued the
trend of keeping POPs rather low, with the highest values of 30-40
pct across the SE on Friday.

Of note will be the cold air moving in behind this frontal boundary.
By Saturday morning, the coldest temperatures of the season are
likely to be seen at many locations, with freezing temperatures
likely impacting much of the NW half of the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     46  61  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         46  68  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       44  57  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    46  64  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  48  65  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     49  67  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      45  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  44  58  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        47  62  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     47  66  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   46  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         43  63  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      46  65  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.


Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-Stone.

&&

$$

Short Term...67 / Long Term...53



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