Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 170011 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL/LOCALLY DENSE. AREAS OF CLOUD COVERAGE
BREAKAGE NOTED ACROSS MID STATE...BUT WITH STILL SOME SHORT RANGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN PATCHY FOG/LOCALLY DENSE FORMATION ACROSS MID STATE
THRU 17/14Z...MENTIONED MVFR FOG BNA/CKV AFTER 17/05Z. WITH SLIGHTEST MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOTED CSV ALONG WITH VFR FOG FORMATION OCCURRING AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION/LOCALLY DENSE...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AS SOON AS 17/03Z...WITH
LIFR CEILINGS 17/08Z-17/14Z. WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES PERSISTING BUT WITH
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI 17/18Z-17/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS BEGUN ERODING THE
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-40 INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS CLEARS OUT THE
CLOUD COVER VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO
TOMORROW. THUS UNCERTAIN IF CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...AND MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SOME AREAS. WILL GO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW AND SHOW GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO HITTING FOG POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU...AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES.

12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVER WESTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...THUS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AND USED THE RAW BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER INTENSE JET MAX WILL CARVE
OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWER BUT CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BROAD-BRUSH
LOW POPS UNTIL CONSENSUS EMERGES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
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