Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 012042
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
242 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IL WILL MOVE
UP THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS
MID TN. RAINY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS MOSTLY FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER DOWN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT.

FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINING SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THAT
TRANSITION WILL BEGIN MAINLY AFTER 4 AM OVER OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. AS
USUAL WITH SNOW FORECASTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE PRECISE
DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY WE THINK MOST PLACES ALONG AND WEST OF I
65 WILL RANGE FROM JUST TRACE AMOUNTS TO A SLUSHY DUSTING. THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION IS MORE LIKELY TO MEASURE...AVERAGING
AROUND ONE HALF INCH. THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROM JAMESTOWN
TO MONTEREY MAY HAVE ONE INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SO EVEN WITH FALLING TEMPS LATE NIGHT...IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. MOST ACCUMULATION FOR TH
PLATEAU IS EXPECTED AFTER 6 AM. STILL...WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
FREEZING DURING MORNING RUSH HOUR...THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. THOSE PROBLEMS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE ENTIRE MORNING FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF MONDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND BRISK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
WE ARE NOT PLANNING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SLICK TRAVEL POTENTIAL WITH AN UPDATED SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

DRY AND COLD WX IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TYPICAL 40S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT CONDITIONS COULD GO DOWNHILL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT COULD
BE DRY...OR THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
ISSUE IS HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A GULF COAST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE DETAILS WILL
WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AT LEAST. FOR
NOW...WE WILL STICK WITH A LOW-MID CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. MODELS
ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...-SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING -SHRA WILL
CHANGE TO -RASN AT CSV AROUND 09Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. CURRENT
VFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      29  36  23  47 / 100  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    27  34  21  45 /  70  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     27  30  19  42 / 100  60   0   0
COLUMBIA       29  35  22  47 / 100  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   30  36  22  46 / 100  10   0   0
WAVERLY        28  34  21  47 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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