Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 271115
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
615 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
Upper trough is currently working its way across the MS/OH River
Valleys, and weak radar echoes are lined up pretty well with the
trough axis. Chances for showers will continue across the mid
state this morning and mainly be for eastern zones later in the
morning hours. Dewpoint depressions are still around 15 degrees or
so, which may inhibit precip from making it to the ground as
quickly as expected. Areas that have seen radar echoes go overhead
have seen dewpoint depressions close a bit, but either way not
expecting too much precip for this event unfortunately. Models
want to clear skies this afternoon pretty quickly behind the
shortwave, but kept some cloud cover in place mainly for the north
and east into the afternoon hours. For the areas that will see the
sun a bit longer today, have high temps in the upper 70s and even
hitting 80 at some locations.
Another ridge will move in behind the trough for the remainder of
the work week and into the weekend. Record high temperatures will
be possible this weekend, especially on Saturday, as both the GFS
and ECMWF have a 588 dm upper high over the region. With clear
skies, southwesterly surface winds, and dewpoints in the low to
mid 50s, expecting low to mid 80s for the mid state Saturday
afternoon. Similar conditions will be in place Sunday, but the
upper high will be further south so have slightly cooler
temperatures Sunday afternoon. Still looking like low 80s will
stick around though.
An upper trough will slide across the northern plains and into the
Great Lakes region next week, which will adjust the upper high
from the Gulf coast to roughly the GA/FL region by Wednesday.
This will keep the low 80s for highs across the mid state through
Tuesday. Any frontal activity from the Great Lakes trough doesnt
look to make it down south, so will likely have to wait until a
more potent shortwave slides through late next week. The GFS and
ECMWF have different solutions on the upper trough, but both have
precip over the mid state next Thursday and Friday. Wont put too
much weight into seeing the precip just yet, but have slight
chance and chance pops for now Thursday and Friday to finish off
the long term forecast. Above average temperatures also look to
continue even into the first weekend of November, but look to be
slightly cooler in the upper 60s to low 70s rather than the low
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Plenty of clouds, though VFR ahead of today`s frontal passage.
Some reduction in flight categories is expected this morning, but
MVFR should be the bottom and only for KCKV. Cloud deck will
prevail until late afternoon/early evening when clearing is
expected from west to east. Models are hinting at fog development
for KCSV late tonight, but I`ll leave that out for now due to low
Southwest winds will be light this morning, then shifting
northerly as the front passes through the mid-state. A gust or two
to 15 kts is possible, but a majority of the day will consist of
winds 8-10 kts, even with the frontal passage.