Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 230930
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
330 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Went ahead and issued a dense fog advisory earlier, for our Plateau
until 9 am this morning. Current vsbys are running between 1/4 and
3/4 miles as this time. Otw, upper level low is now located over FL
and to our north, a warm front over IL and IN will continue to push
slowly northward. There is some lower level cloudiness back to our
west and that will likely move across our area later this morning.
Upper level westerlies will carry an upper impulse across northern
areas this morning. Thus, could see a few sprinkles across the
north. Temps will again be in the 70s today, some upper ridge
amplification will take place toward 00z.

Tonight, a sfc low will be tracking eastward across that
aforementioned warm front. For us, a southerly wind flow will begin
to pick up with low temps only dropping into the upper 50s.

A cold front will extend south of the sfc low and will be on
approach late Friday afternoon. Winds will increase into the 15 to
25 mph range with higher gusts. A wind advisory may be needed within
the next 24 hours to cover this. The actual fropa will occur Friday
evening with showers and tstms accompanying the front. With high
temps reaching 80 degrees on Friday, there will be plenty of lower
level instability. Furthermore, as some upper level energy begins to
catch up with the boundary, organized linear omega fields will
engage with favorable shear levels. Thus, a round of strong to svr
tstms looks possible, mainly for areas east of I-65, during the
evening. Damaging winds looks to be the primary threat.

Turning colder late Friday night. By Sat morning, temps will start
out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs will stay in the 40s for
the most part.

In the ext fcst, Sunday morning will be rather cold with the sfc
high in close proximity. Low temps will be in the upper 20s for most
areas. Temps will rebound into the 50s for highs. A warming trend
will then commence in advance of the next fropa which will occur on
Monday night. Look for mostly showers on Monday though as
instabilities are rather weak.

Weak high pressure to build in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will
remain mild with lows 50 to 55 and highs 65 to 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Fog development at KCSV has been pretty hot and heavy over the
last couple of hours. LIFR to VLIFR has been seen and is likely to
continue throughout the overnight and most of the morning hours.
Vis drops at KBNA are possible, but I think we are looking at more
of a IFR cloud deck closer to sunrise due to 25-30 kt boundary
layer winds. Much similar for KCKV.

Winds will very light to calm tonight and pick up again Thursday
out of the south.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  58  80  41  47 /  10   0  20  70  10
Clarksville    73  58  78  37  45 /  10   0  20  50  10
Crossville     70  55  73  42  45 /  10   0  10  90  10
Columbia       73  58  79  41  48 /  10   0  20  50  10
Lawrenceburg   73  58  79  42  49 /  10   0  10  50  10
Waverly        73  58  79  38  45 /  10   0  30  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Cumberland-
Fentress-Grundy-Pickett-Van Buren-Warren-White.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07


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