Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 182159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
359 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017


Today has been a dreary mostly cloudy day for pretty much everyone
north of I-40, while those of you south of I-40 have had the
pleasure of partly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 50s
this afternoon. While we could still see some of the low clouds
break apart in the northern half of the CWA, we should see a
steady inflow of high clouds overnight ahead of an approaching low
pressure system that will be moving out of Texas and toward the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Rain will likely begin by late
morning Tuesday and continue throughout the night and for most of
the day on Wednesday. PWAT values top out around 1.25 inches with
this system. The most intense rainfall is expected early
Wednesday morning along the Tennessee/Alabama state line. A total
of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible from Tuesday
through Wednesday evening. We could also see a few thunderstorms
over the southern counties and gusty winds for most of the area as
the surface low moves directly over the mid state. There is the
potential for some localized flooding Wednesday especially in low
lying areas in those southern counties.

When this system moves off to the east we`ll see our driest day in
this forecast package. Thursday should be pleasant with
temperatures near 60 degrees and partly cloudy skies. The next
round of rain quickly enters the picture Friday morning. PWATs
remain high with this system as well, 1.25 to 1.4 inches. Rainfall
amounts may be slightly higher with 1 to 4 inches of rainfall
possible. Flood potential increases on Friday especially for areas
that saw rain earlier in the week. Instability is limited, but we
could see some thunderstorms develop along the boundary that moves
across the mid state during the day on Friday.

After Saturday, forecast confidence decreases as models remain in
disagreement about precip chances. For now have kept chance pops
running into Sunday and Monday. Luckily temperatures look like
they`ll remain above freezing into Monday, so if we do have precip
it should be rain.



IFR cigs will continue at airports for another couple of hours
before improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR at CKV/BNA/MQY
around 00Z. However, cigs/vis look to deteriorate back to
IFR/LIFR tonight at CSV. Otherwise, light southwest winds are
anticipated through the TAF period.





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