Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 252048
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THRU MID
MORNING HRS FRI PLATEAU...WX PATTERN FIRST PART OF WEEK THRU NEW
YEARS DAY...TEMPS.

MID STATE HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF CLOUD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE A THING OF THE
PAST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...WITH
WARMING TEMPS. AFTER LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE
RANGE...HIGHS WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON FRI WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AS SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT BECOMES THE MAJOR WX PLAYER THRU
THE PERIOD...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID STATE
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY CONCERN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE...IF WINDS
GET LIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS ERN/PLATEAU COUNTIES...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND MOST RAINFALL EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS...SO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS EXIST...WILL PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP...AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...THIS MOST LIKELY WOULD
BE PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING. SOME QUESTION WHETHER THIS WOULD
ACTUALLY HAPPEN THOUGH...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE APPROACHING
FAVORABLE VALUES...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY. THUS...WILL MENTION
IN THE UPCOMING SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS.

NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID STATE STARTING SAT MORNING
AND LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO SUN NIGHT AS SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT
PUSHES THRU MID STATE. BELIEVE OVERALL BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE EARLY SUN MORNING. AFTER LOWS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
AROUND 40...HIGHS ON SAT WILL AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS SAT
NIGHT SPANNING THE 40S. AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE MID
STATE ON SUN...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING AFTER MORNING
HIGHS ARE REACHED FOR THAT DAY...THRU THE AFTERNOON HRS...SPANNING
THE 40S W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. BELIEVE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E OF SUN NIGHT FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THUS LIMITING
ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS NW
HALF OF MID STATE...AS LOWS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING NW TO AROUND
40 PLATEAU...AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS MORE ZONAL CHARACTERISTICS
AFTER PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE IN FLOW.

MAYBE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHWRS THRU MON AFTERNOON THRU THE MID
STATE WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
SHOULD KEEP THE MID STATE DRY THRU NEW YEARS EVE WITH HIGHS COOLING
TO AROUND THE LOWER 40S ON TUE AS WRN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MID STATE. LOWS WILL
BE FROM AROUND FREEZING ON MON NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S BY TUE NIGHT.

THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING DEPENDING ON WHAT YOUR MODEL
PREFERENCE YOU LEAN TOWARD AS WE APPROACH NEW YEAR`S NIGHT/NEW YEARS
DAY...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION KEEPING BEST MOISTURE S AND W OF
MID STATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS...EURO
KEEPING BEST MOISTURE FROM COMING INTO MID STATE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HRS ON NEW YEAR`S DAY...BUT OUR OLD FRIEND DGEX BRINGING THE BEST
MOISTURE IN NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY. DGEX SOLUTION COULD
RESULT IN A POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING NEW YEARS EVE
TRANSITIONING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW EVENT AT LEAST ACROSS NW PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY...WITH RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S BY THE MORNING HRS OF NEW YEAR`S
DAY WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION...BUT TAKING A LOOK
AT MOST RECENT LOW LEVEL ATM THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED...THESE VALUES
ARE NOT THE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE HERE...AND
LEANING TOWARD THE CONSALL SOLUTION THAT ALSO SUPPORTS SOME WINTRY MIX
POTENTIAL EVEN INTO THU AS HIGH TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S PLATEAU...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY
AS FIRST TALKED ABOUT IN THIS MORNING`S DISCUSSION...BUT WAY TOO EARLY
TO KNOW IF THIS PATTERN WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN ALONG WITH ANY POTENTIAL
OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING TO FROZEN PCPN. BUT AS A REMINDER HERE ALSO...
LIKE PREVIOUSLY STRESSED...GOOD THING FOR THOSE PLANNING HOLIDAY TRAVEL
IN THE MID-STATE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THE
WX PATTERN ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THIS TIME APPROACHES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      32  58  41  59 /   0   0  10  50
CLARKSVILLE    33  56  40  56 /   0  05  10  60
CROSSVILLE     30  54  38  55 /   0   0  05  30
COLUMBIA       32  58  39  59 /   0   0  10  50
LAWRENCEBURG   31  57  41  57 /   0   0  10  50
WAVERLY        33  57  43  57 /   0  05  10  60
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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