000
FXUS63 KILX 070240
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Much milder temperatures are on track for tonight compared with
last night. Temperatures as of 7 p.m. are already 10-20 degrees
above yesterday`s readings. Steady southerly winds around 10-12
mph and approaching mid and high cloud cover will limit further
drops in temperature, perhaps even causing them to rise from late
evening through the night from around Springfield and Taylorville
westward where upwind temperatures are much warmer due to lack of
snow cover to the southwest. Have updated temperatures overnight
based on evening trends. Most notably, cooled off temperatures a
few degrees in east-central and southeast IL where a colder air
mass remains entrenched. Expect near steady temperatures from
midnight through early morning in the low-mid 20s in east-central
and southeast IL, and mid-20s to low 30s central/west IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

High pressure will provide quiet weather through tonight. A weak
shortwave passing by to the north of IL this afternoon could have
some lingering mid clouds in our northeastern counties early this
evening. A wave of high clouds will approach from the NW late
tonight. Otherwise, clear skies will prevail overnight. The pressure
gradient between a warm front entering NW IL this evening and high
pressure to the SE of IL will keep southerly winds in the 8-10kt
range in most areas. Those winds will help keep low temps a little
warmer, with readings ranging from the low 20s in the Wabash River
Valley to the low 30s from Jacksonville to Rushville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Models remain very consistent with continuing the warming trend over
the weekend and through most of next week. Northwest flow will
also continue, but warmer temps in the lower levels will continue
to advect northward through the period. There is one weak system
that drops southeast into the Grt Lks region. This could bring
pcpn to the northern part of the state and could bring some light
rain or snow to extreme northern parts of the cwa on Sunday.
Current thinking is that there will not be enough moisture to
produce pcpn, but will still have slight chance in extreme north.
However, this will only be seen in the grids and not in the worded
forecasts. Beyond Sunday, dry weather is expected through most of
the next week. The next chance of pcpn looks to be Friday as a
system moves northeast across the southern US. Extended models
spread pcpn into the southern third of the CWA during the day and
with warmer temps, all pcpn looks to be rain.

Temps will gradually warm through the period reaching the 50s to
near 60 for Tue through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. A persistent
pressure gradient associated with two weak weather disturbances
passing through the region will remain over central IL through 18Z
bringing S-SW winds 8-12 kts through the night, increasing to
around 15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts in the morning. Periods of
mid and high clouds will move over the region with these
disturbances. Expect clearing skies and winds decreasing slightly
through afternoon Saturday as surface high pressure approaches
from the west.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton