Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 070935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing an area of moderate to heavy rain in the
northeastern Permian Basin and western low rolling plains.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches have been observed on Texas
Tech mesonet sites in Borden and Scurry Counties which is already
above flash flood guidance. This rain is focused along a weak
cold front that is bisecting the Permian Basin from NE-SW and
where the most widespread rainfall will occur today will depend
on the position of this feature. Additional showers are being
supported by a very slow moving upper level trough moving across
west Texas. Precipitable water values are well above normal so
storms will be proficient rain producers and thus have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the flooding threat. The greatest flood
potential will be in the eastern portion of the watch area but
with PWATs approaching 2 inches any storm could produce flash
flooding so decided to make the watch large enough to include most
of the CWA except those areas farthest from the upper trough.

Most of the rain is expected today and tomorrow, then will
diminish and shift to the Guadalupe Mountains later this week and
end altogether by the weekend as an upper level high retrogrades
from the southeastern U.S. over into the Central Plains. Well
below normal temperatures today will climb through the next seven
days as subsidence from the upper high increases. GFS and ECMWF
extended MOS guidance are showing highs approaching 100 degrees
early next week but this seems a bit too high. In drought years
deep easterly flow on the southern periphery of the high could
advect hot and dry air in from central Texas but this year there
has been plenty of moisture available so highs in this regime
should hold to the mid 90s.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  83  68  89  71  /  70  60  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    83  67  93  71  /  40  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      94  75  94  72  /  70  30  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               89  70  91  71  /  50  40  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              75  64  87  67  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                       78  63  89  68  /  50  30  20  20
MARFA TX                       81  65  87  65  /  50  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        83  68  89  71  /  70  50  30  10
ODESSA TX                      82  67  89  71  /  60  50  20  10
WINK TX                        84  69  92  72  /  50  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

27/10



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