Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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856
FXUS64 KMAF 212239
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
439 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty westerly winds will diminish around 22/00Z, or shortly
thereafter, and veer to the west northwest, or northwest, at most
terminals.  VFR conditions will prevail overnight as winds diminish
further late tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

Winds are cranking with generally 25-40g50mph expected across the
plain remainder of afternoon, there have already been G60-79 mph
in GDP Mtns and G55-59 mph across the PB. GOES 16 shows quite alot
of dust across PB, but thicker dust is to the n. Still blowing
dust is a concern, especially along and n of I-20 and local vsby
could be less than a mile. It has been close as to whether we
would need to upgrade to a high wind warning for another row
county e across the PB, but since 7h speed max does shift e by 21Z
winds will are likely ticking down. For now we plan to keep wind
headlines as they are, with mostly high end wind advisory
conditions across the PB and blowing dust advisory across n-e
CWFA. Otherwise very dry air (0F to 5F Td at HOB/GNC) is pushing
out of SE NM into PB.

Tonight winds will stay up across most areas as MSLP gradient
maintains NW winds with dry air holding place. This will mostly
be the case for the next several days (til Thur AM?) and as such
morning lows will be on the cold side (near to below normal). NW
or weakish flow aloft will preclude the development of lee trough
and thus favoring an absence of the low level thermal ridge,
resulting high temperatures that are mostly close to normal thru
Wed. Mid-level flow does increase from the sw by Thur and a
thermal ridge will develop across the wrn CWFA, thus warmer. A
Pacific front will probably pass around Fri increasing potential
for dry w winds, but still warm. Cooler temperatures do follow
Sat-Sun in cool dry nw flow aloft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong winds from the base of an upper trough are mixing down to the
surface. A tight surface pressure gradient is also in place. These
conditions have lead to high to very strong winds across the area
this afternoon. The winds are from the west bringing in very dry
air. Single digit dew points are already across southeast New
Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the far northwest Permian Basin
which has resulted in relative humidities below 15 percent. These
dry conditions will spread further east this afternoon resulting in
widespread minimum RH values of 15 percent or less. These
conditions, along with dry fuels, have resulted in critical fire
weather across the entire area except the Guadalupe Mountains. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon into early this evening for
the area. Although dry conditions will be present on Monday, wind
speeds will be less than 20 mph greatly reducing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  56  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  56  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         38  67  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 25  47  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  52  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          20  53  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         33  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           26  59  23  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Southeast
     Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Winkler.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Borden-
     Dawson-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$



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