Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 011822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1222 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

The main short term concern is snow moving through this morning
and chance of snow developing over central MN this afternoon.
Finally...timing of next chance of snow moving in from the west
late tonight.

Various short term models continue to indicate enhancement of the
snow across eastern and southern MN into west central Wi this
morning. Latest radar trends showing some higher dbz returns in a
narrow band from near Siren...Maple Grove and Glencoe at 09z This
trend is forecast to continue across east central MN from now until
about 15z. Forcing/lift is maximized in the dendritic layer over the
metro area right around 12z. We should be able to pick up around an
inch accumulation if model trends continue. Otherwise...this area
shifts east this morning...with heavier snow possible towards Eau
Claire along I94. Timing of the heaviest accumulation there from
13z-16z. Could see a quick 2-3 inches in the Eau Claire area through

Focus turns to the main upper trough which is moving through the
eastern Dakotas.  This feature moves into central MN this
afternoon...and we may see some snow showers/light snow develop
along the trough axis as it moves east.  Timed it into eastern MN
mainly after 21z.  Will continue lower chance pops for this for now.

Finally...the clipper type system continues on schedule for late
tonight into western MN. Moisture will be lacking but still could
produce a band of light snow spreading over the southwest cwa
mainly 06z-12z Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

The snow shower threat will persist with the clipper system early
Thursday, mainly from west central to south central MN. Expecting
less than an inch where the band of snow does form. As the short
term section mentioned, moisture is lacking, but there is a fairly
deep saturated DGZ with some lift through that layer. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday will be chilly by February 2017 standards, but
really will be near normal.

The long wave trough will lift out for the weekend with a ridge
building eastward into the Great Lakes. Southeast surface flow
will become southwest by Sunday with 925 mb temps off the ECMWF
rising to +13C by late afternoon. GFS is a bit delayed into Sunday
evening bringing that degree of warm air aloft in. Raised
temperatures more into the mid 50s to lower 60s with the degree of
sun expected. A fair number of GEFS members are even warmer in the
low to mid 60s.

A trough over the Rockies will spawn the next system over eastern
Montana Sunday night which will track north of Minnesota Monday.
Quite a bit of uncertainty is associated with timing the frontal
passage Monday, but if it`s delayed to Monday night, Monday could
be the warmest day of the year yet. Rich Theta-E air will lift
north ahead of the front with several hundred joules of CAPE,
therefore added some thunder for Monday.

Cooler air follows for midweek, but temps should still remain
above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Starting out, main stratus shield along with snow continues
progressing east early this afternoon with the clouds extending
into eastern MN. As the back edge continued east, an MVFR cu field
quickly popped, which was well anticipated given the current
trough moving through. There is a narrow gap to the west between
this cloud cover and the next shortwave incoming tonight. Expect
snow showers to move through west to east from late this afternoon
through the evening. The main precip with the shortwave coming
down from our northwest will arrive overnight and mainly affect
far southern MN along the MN river valley. Of the TAF sites, RWF
will be the most impacted. For now brought them down to 3sm -sn
but later shifts will likely be able to have confidence in
bringing the VIS down to IFR or LIFR overnight there.

KMSP...expecting the snow overnight to mainly stay south of MSP.
Could see some very light snow showers or flurries but not
expecting any VIS issues.

THU Night...chc MVFR early. then vfr. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds SE 10 kts.




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