Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 260842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
442 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Issued at 442 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A drier, less humid airmass will persist today as high pressure
builds into the region. Afternoon highs will primarily be in the
middle to upper 80s today. The humidity will gradually build
through the week with the next chance for showers and storms will
come Thursday into Saturday as an upper level trough deepens
across the middle part of the nation.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 437 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Strong insolation to likely provide diurnal plus rises today despite
lack of any appreciable low level thermal advection. Deep moisture
scour across southern Great Lakes extends westward into IA/NE with
little more than few high based cu/high lcl along with gradual
thinning/sewd shunt of ci shield. Sided a bit warmer than blend
today given optimal mid summer insolation and upstream temps


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Primarily status quo through long term. Continued good intermodel
agreement on mid conus troffing with bifurcation of subtropical
ridge between Desert SW and Bermuda High. Several northern stream
shortwaves with first sig wave now into central MT to likely need
to slowly overcome initial low level moisture deficits across
forecast area with initial circuitous GOMEX moisture that
eventually whittles into Dy3. Subsequent waves/increasing mid trop
height falls suggest Thu night into Fri as best period of
shra/tsra...though coverage likely to remain isold-sct given lack
of sig low level focus identified. Additional waves and hint at
quasi-stationary boundary along i-70 corridor supports continued
mention into first part of weekend as well. Release of Gulf of AK
vortex into BC/Pac NW to begin to provide gradual low amplitude
ridge extension from 4 corners into the Northern Plains spreading
eastward into far western Upper Great Lakes early next week.
Collaborative effort utilized to eschew low blended pops DY6-7.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

High pressure will move slowly east across nrn Indiana this taf
period providing light winds and vfr conditions. Temps expected to
fall to at or just blo crossovers this morning but bufr fcst
soundings suggest low level moisture generally decreasing
vertically so sgfnt restrictions due to fog are not expected at
the terminals.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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