Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


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