Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 020539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STEADY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING EAST
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE ON
MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS STRONG. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE
50S...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL SBCAPE OVER FAR SERN CWA APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS
EVENING TO AFFORD JUST SLIGHT CHC TSRA. OTHERWISE CWA LARGELY
REMAINS IN COLD SECTOR WITH MINIMAL MUCAPE, HOWEVER 40-60M/122 HR
HEIGHT RISES AND SUCCINCT I300K UPGLIDE INCREASING THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH 8 PLUS G/KG TAP TO AFFORD BURGEONING SHRA DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE BLENDED APPROACH APPEARS GOOD
THROUGH SHORT TERM PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LONG DURATION ROCKIES RIDGING AND NERN THIRD CONUS TROFFING FROM MID
WEEK ON LEADING TO POTENTIALLY ACTIVE MIDWEEK RAFL. RATHER COOL
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW MODERATING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST PRECLUDES TSRA MENTION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR AND EVEN VFR. DON`T
EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG AS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/MIST WILL
WORK BACK IN OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MUCH OF MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AT KSBN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MON BUT BE DELAYED
SOME AT KFWA TO CLOSER TO TAF ENDING TIME.

SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


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