Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 282138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY AROUND 29 DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE
40S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
290K SURFACE WAS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SNOW...HOWEVER...A DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WAS INHIBITING SOME SNOWFALL. THE SNOW SHOULD
END OVER NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN
THE LOW LEVELS. 925/850 MB MOISTURE INCREASES TO OVER 6 G/KG
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE SATURDAY ALL
AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...HOWEVER...FOR NOW...KEPT
JUST DRIZZLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD NEARLY OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING...WITH TEMPERATURES
POISED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

BRIEF WARM UP TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE
UPPER TROF OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COMBINED EFFECT WILL HAVE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NON-DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS SAT NITE WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING IN
THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 50F IN SW
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS AFTER REACHING HIGHS IN
THE 50S. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC LEAVING VERY LITTLE FORCING OVER OUR AREA AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LACKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ONLY A SHALLOW SFC BASED SATURATED LAYER BELOW INVERSION SO
WOULD EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IF ANY PRECIP
WERE TO DEVELOP. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR LES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3KFT AND DELTA T ONLY 10-15C SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND
BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY. MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS
FOR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP. MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL HAS BEEN TOWARD
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING FCST AND
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP THU-FRI. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS
EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY...GETTING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 290K SURFACE WAS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SNOW...HOWEVER...A
DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS WAS INHIBITING SNOWFALL. THE TROF
WILL MOVE EAST WITH SNOW ENDING JUST PAST THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END IF THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AT SBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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