Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 220715
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
315 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

A PLEASANT START TO FALL AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TODAY WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

PLAINS SFC RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY EWD THROUGH THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY
THIS PD MARKING THE START OF AN EXCEPTIONAL PD OF PLEASANT WEATHER.
HWVR LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD FIRM YET TDA. COOL START AND
NEUTRAL ADVTN ALOFT WITHIN CONTD NRLY SFC GRADIENT FLW WILL SUBDUE
AFTN DIURNAL...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE ON TUE. CLR SKIES
AND DECOUPLING UNDERNEATH SFC RIDGE WARRANTS CUTTING MIN TEMPS SE
THIRD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A LOT OF RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ATTEMPTS TO PASS NEAR THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BUT WILL HIT A BRICK WALL AND EITHER BE SHEARED
OUT OR SHIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE RESULT IS A CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND GENERALLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SLUG OF TROPICAL MSTR WORKING NORTH WITH A
DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...NO WORRIES UNTIL MAYBE
MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

EVOLUTION OF WRN BOUND OF MOIST LL CYCLONIC FLW NR TERM PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN LL THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE AND AS YET STILL DEEP NRLY
TRAJECTORY NOTED IN PBL. THUS EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATOCU SHIELD ACRS MI
MAY CONT TO WRAP SWD AS SHOWN IN LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AS
OPPOSED TO MOST OTHER 00Z BASED GUIDANCE WHICH CARRIES IT EWD OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HWVR TRIED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
FCST BUT OF WHICH MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

OTRWS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLDG THROUGH OH VALLEY AND BREAKDOWN OF
LL THERMAL TROUGH PREDICATES VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.