Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
248 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Increasing clouds today with a chance for a shower this afternoon as
a cold front drops through the region. Afternoon highs will range in
the mid to upper 40s.

Wednesday through Friday will be dry with seasonable temperatures.
Afternoon highs will warm from the upper 30s Wednesday to near 50


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Fast moving low amplitude shortwave over swrn ON this morning will
streak ewd into wrn QB this aftn. Southward trailing cold front will
cross the CWA this aftn with a brief period of shra possible given
favorable but short lived frontal scale ascent plume however
nary any return moisture to work on so limited QPF response expected.

Post frontal cold advection wing wraps in this evening. Brief
favorable alignment of low level trajectories within marginally
favorable lake based thermal trough should promote a few light lake
effect snow showers or flurries but again given lack of better
background moisture limited response expected.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

General subdued PNA pattern across NOAM will continue this period as
negative height anomalies persist across Hudson Bay. Active northern
jet stream flow however will remain bottled up through southern
Canada with little impedes seen yet for any embedded low amplitude
shortwave disturbances to develop further southward across the
CONUS. Thus expect mainly dry frontal passages as GOMEX moisture
return remains absent per persisting low level anticyclone and
widely vacillating temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Gusty south-southwest winds will persist this morning in advance of
a cold front, especially just off to the deck as low level jet
strengthens. Will continue with a LLWS mention through the early
morning as a result. Cold front then swings through KSBN early this
afternoon and KFWA later in the day. Moisture return is lacking into
this frontal slope, but should see a couple hour window for light
showers given a strong PV push with pivoting vort lobe. Cold
advection and veering winds expected post-frontal later today into
tonight. This will allow for a lake response, though limited
moisture depth should keep conditions mainly VFR with nothing more
than a few flurries or sprinkles expected.


LM...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.




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