Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1031 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS TRIED TO CLEAR...BUT A BAND REMAINS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE HARD
TO GET RID OF OVERNIGHT AND COULD ACTUALLY EVEN EXPAND. OUTSIDE OF
THE STRATUS...STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS...AT LEAST BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIONS
FROM THE RAP/HRRR/NAM...ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
IN THE AREAL EXTENT. AS IT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...AREAS WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS...THE FOG SHOULDN`T BE THAT BAD OR MAY NOT EVEN
DEVELOP AT ALL.

ALSO...SOME FOLKS MAY HAVE NOTICED THE RED FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SMOKE OVERHEAD FROM WILDFIRES
IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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