Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 290746
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
246 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Upper low continues to spin across the western Great Lakes. First
vort lobe is moving through the area now and did trigger a few
sprinkles in northeast NE earlier this morning, but additional
moisture is extremely limited as the vort lobe moves south of the
area. The next lobe rotating around the low could help trigger
isolated showers today across the northern Plains/upper
Mississippi River Valley, in response to the cool temps aloft and
very steep lapse rates. These showers could approach northeast NE
and northwest IA this afternoon/early evening, but very doubtful
anything would be be heavier enough to measure, and will just
mention sprinkles. Otherwise, it will be another breezy day with
increasing winds and highs from 70-78 as a reinforcing cool front
continues to settle southward.

The frontal boundary may eventually wash out near the KS/NE
border. This boundary may still be somewhat present on Tuesday,
with spotter showers possible along it, but possibly just to our
south across KS and MO. Highs Tuesday again from 72 to 78.

Dry weather continues into Wednesday with surface high pressure
across the mid Missouri Valley region. Highs Wednesday a little
warmer 75 to 80.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Rain chances return Wednesday night as moisture and instability
return on southerly flow and a strengthening low level jet. Rain
chances linger Thursday morning and lift northward through the
area through the daytime. Thursday night and Friday look dry with
precip chances both north and south of the area. Thursday and
Friday should be warm with highs boosting into the mid 80s on
breezy southerly flow. Another frontal boundary moving into the
region Saturday, which brings precip chances back, along with
slightly cooler temperatures, then dry for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Mosaic radar data as of 04z indicate isolated showers stretching
from southeast SD and northwest IA through northeast into south-
central NE. This activity is moving southeast ahead of a shortwave
trough progressing through the mid MO Valley. Given the sparse
nature of the convection, no mention of SHRA is currently planned
in the 06z TAFs. Will continue to monitor up to issuance time
though. Otherwise, expect passing mid-level clouds overnight with
boundary-layer-based cumulus (FL060-070) once again developing
Monday afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen. This process
will also yield gusty northwest winds by late morning/early
afternoon which will diminish by evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mead


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