Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 280755
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TODAY AND MOVE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. ALL THE MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...CURRENT MOVEMENT IS NORTH AS THEY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO VERY SLOWLY BEGIN PUSHING EAST WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT LIKELY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. BEST CHANCES BEFORE NOON WILL OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN
EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

SINCE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY FOR THE
REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES DUE TO MORNING SHOWERS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO BEGIN BY LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND
00Z ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A SHORTWAVE COULD SET OFF
A MCS ACROSS MISSOURI WHICH THE REMNANTS COULD MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MAJOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE FEATURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS IT IS TOO FAR
OUT TO PINPOINT THESE MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS
FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S BUT BY MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE LOWER 80S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAIN MAY
ONLY REACH INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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