Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 020218 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED AT MIDEVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTH MS. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE TROF MAINLY BELOW 500MB...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LA.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AT MIDEVENING...AND REDUCED BUT NOT
ELIMINATED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED IN
THE AVIATION SECTION EARLIER... SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY EAST AND NORTH OF MEMPHIS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE A MILE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES
WHILE CIGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KMKL..KTUP... AND KJBR CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO FROM TO MVFR LEVELS.
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 4Z AT KMEM AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KTUP
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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