Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 041515
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASING POPS ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER AND FOR
TRENDING MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRAINING OF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND THOUGH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO RESTART.

ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BREAKS UNTIL AFTER 1PM.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY...

SIMILAR TO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRAINING OVER NORTH
MS AT DISCUSSION TIME...ROUGHLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMS TO THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST AR BY MIDDAY.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE OVER NORTH
MS...WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE
MOST LIKELY AREAL THREAT...WITH A BUFFER ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
TN. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER OVER SW TN...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS AROUND 6 PM
CDT...AND ACROSS NORTH MS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO AL. DEPENDING ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY.

SUNDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PRESENT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR...IFR.. AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VCTS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL 4 TAF SITES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 18Z AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. VCTS WILL GIVE WAY TO VCSH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE S OR SW
DURING THE DAY AT BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$



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