Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017


Currently, at 3 AM CDT around the Mid-South, showers are ongoing
across northern portions of the region associated with a shortwave
embedded in northwest flow aloft. Temperatures are currently in
the mid to upper 60s, with winds generally calm. Latest surface
analysis depicts a surface high centered just to the NW of the
local region. Meanwhile, H5 analysis places the region under
northwest flow aloft, with a trough axis located from roughly Lake
Erie southwestward through the local region while a ridge builds
into the Plains west.

Shower activity will continue through the morning hours, but will
likely remain secluded to the northern half of the FA, per latest
HRRR guidance. Clouds will diminish throughout the day as surface
high pressure builds into the region from the northwest, with
afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 80s. By Wednesday the flow
aloft becomes more zonal, with high pressure dominating at the
surface, thus allowing for a few days of suppressed convection and
dry conditions. Afternoon highs will warm to be in the upper 80s
for Wednesday, as overnight lows remain in the 60s.

By Thursday the surface high moves east, with moisture advection
ensuing, allowing for chances of showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday afternoon primarily across northern Mississippi. A better
chance for afternoon convection comes Friday afternoon as moisture
advection ramps up with the flow aloft becoming more
southwesterly. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms
currently appears to be on Friday night and into Saturday as a
front drops into the region from the northwest, associated with a
low pressure center moving across the Midwest. Several impulses in
zonal flow aloft will likely keep precipitation chances in the
forecast throughout the entire holiday weekend as temperatures
remain a few degrees cooler than normal for late June.



06Z TAFs

A shortwave trough over Missouri will drop into Arkansas/Tennessee
overnight into Tuesday morning bringing rain shower chances to
JBR, MKL, and perhaps MEM. VFR conditions are anticipated to
prevail through much of the period with light winds increasing to
NE to ENE winds between 5-7 kts and becoming light by Tuesday




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