Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 211733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT
TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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