Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 011129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
THE LINE THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. THE LINE WILL ROUGHLY BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-2 AM. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THE NAM IS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY WAA SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING LIKE THE GFS. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AND IF WAA SHOWERS DO OCCUR LIKE THE GFS
IS INDICATING...THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST INITIALLY.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME FROM THE SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD TO
A LINE STRETCHING FROM PARIS...TO BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD. WITH LATEST
MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SQUALL
LINE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK IN HWO AS IS...COVERING EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING FROM
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS 5-10KT LIGHT MAINLY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH JBR AND POSSIBLY MEM TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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