Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 222320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH. BY 5 PM...SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA AND THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO MIDSOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI NEAR CLARKSDALE AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR
HELENA-WEST HELENA SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE CLOUDY AND RAINY MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF. CAN/T RULE OUT SCATTERED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SHOWERS BUT CHANCES OF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW THAN A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO.

THE UPPER TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY 00Z (6 PM) SUNDAY
EVENING CUTTING OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE EVENING WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THE COLD AIR FOR THANKSGIVING.
NOW BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THANKSGIVING AND
STALLING THE FRONT OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH BUT COULD BRING RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS TO MAKE SURE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS
TREND. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KT. CIGS WILL
LOWER EARLY TOMORROW TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE REGION AND A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAY BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL SO
ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS AFTER 23/12Z OR SO. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AT
ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.