Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 200835
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST BY
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY...HELPING TO
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY SET BACK UP BY THURSDAY
HELPING TO DRAW A MOISTER AIRMASS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FOR SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AROUND KTUP AND KMKL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/13Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT E TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AT 5-6 KTS. AFTER 21/00Z...WINDS SOUTHERLY 5
KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.