Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 300203
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
903 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...

No changes to the overnight forecast are needed. Left over
showers from an MCS that moved across Arkansas are currently
moving through North Mississippi. They will continue to decrease
in coverage over the next few hours. Most of the region will
remain dry through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places Tropical
Depression Bonnie along the South Carolina coast, high pressure
over the Tennessee Valley and Alabama, and a weak cold front over
portions of Illinois, southern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Water
Vapor satellite trends indicate a subtle 700 mb shortwave trough
moving across Arkansas. This has produced isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over central Arkansas. As of 3 pm CDT,
temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 80s at most
locations.

Based on Short term convective trends and the HRRR, have decided
to add isolated showers and thunderstorms into the forecast for
through early/mid evening mainly along and west of the Mississippi
River. (especially along the I-40 corridor) Otherwise, the
remainder of the Mid-South is anticipated to remain mainly
rain free at this time.

Models indicate a potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across areas mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River on Memorial Day and Monday night. A gradual
increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage is anticipated for
Tuesday and Wednesday as mid level heights weaken somewhat and
better coverage on Thursday/Thursday night as a cold front moves
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible through the period, especially
towards Thursday.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00z TAFs

SHRA/TSRA cluster over east central AR will continue to propagate
ESE over the delta, affecting CKM and possibly UTA before
dissipating with the loss of surface heating. Lower atmosphere
near MEM was moderately unstable at 2330Z, but strongly capped to
deep convection. A few low-depth showers possible with the
approach of a shortwave disturbance, but the likelihood of early
evening TS affecting MEM appears to have waned.

For the overnight, weak surface winds and dissipating high clouds
will lead to radiational fog potential at all but MEM. VFR will
otherwise prevail during the day Monday, with drier northeast
winds limiting cumulus coverage.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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