Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 281454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
954 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

AS OF 9AM...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS...BACK THROUGH KENTUCKY...AND
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MOISTURE FIELD IS QUITE DIFFERENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER WEST
TN AND NE AR WITH MID 60S OVER NE MS. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE BORDER WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDICES TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE
ON TRACK.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

TODAY...ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE KY AND TN BORDER DUE TO A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 90S.

BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TRY TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT NEAR THE
AR/MO AND KY/TN BORDER AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE DUE TO THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY AT MKL AND TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.