Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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700
FXUS64 KMEG 052043
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT


.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

A MID-CONTINENTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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