Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 300901
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DAY OF TRANSITION FROM A HOT/DRY PATTERN TO ONE MORE UNSETTLED...
AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT THE VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SE COAST...IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES HEADED
EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW REGION...SOUTH OF A VORTEX SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. EAST OF THIS...A FEED OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUED STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ALSO BRINGING DEEPER
LOWER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE
70F WERE NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVING NORTHWARD WAS APPARENT
VIA REGIONAL RADAR WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW ON OUR
HYTOP RADAR...S-SW OF THE RDA.

THUS THE WEEKEND TO `END` SUMMER 2014 WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE...AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWER
CHANCES THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS GUSTY WINDS IN THE
40-50 MPH RANGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...A BIT MORE SHEAR
WAS FORECAST FOR OUR NW ALABAMA GROUP...SO A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. EVEN WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...THE ON-GOING DRY
GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE FIRST DOSES OF RAINFALL INTO
THE EVENING. BUT TRAINING/REPEATING EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD
CHANGE THIS...SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE VALLEY EAST OF THE NW ALABAMA
DURING SUNDAY...AS A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ADVECTS TO THE NORTH. LEFT IN
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA ON SUN... GIVEN A SIGNAL
OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA.
THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM
OVER 1/2 OF AN INCH OVER NE AL...TO 1.3 OVER THE NW.

A RETURN TO WARMER AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
LABOR DAY MON...AS A SOUTHERLY FEED FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES. WITH
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE HOLIDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S (AFTER A BRIEF "COOL DOWN" IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND). STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MILDER ECMWF...
WITH LOWER 90 HIGH TEMPERATURES THE RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SOME NEAR 100 READINGS NEXT TUE/WED. ISOLATED
SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...SINCE THE CHC OF PCPN IS VERY LOW THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. HOWEVER AFTER 12Z THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. THE
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT KMSL. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
ARND 03Z/04Z SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN TSRA...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  72  88  70 /  60  60  40  30
SHOALS        86  72  89  70 /  70  70  60  30
VINEMONT      86  71  87  70 /  60  60  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  85  71  87  69 /  60  60  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   87  71  87  69 /  60  60  40  30
FORT PAYNE    87  71  90  68 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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