Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 301146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
INTO NRN MS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD THIS EARLY TUE
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL...AND IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THESE STORMS MAY VERY
WELL MOVE INTO THE HSV METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFF TO THE E...PROVIDED THEY
SOMEWHAT HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST ROUND/WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS XPCTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID PLAINS
STATES. WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER OF THE THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LATENT ENERGY OR
BUOYANCY INCREASING COUPLED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL FALLING BELOW 10K FT...THE THREAT IS
DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALIZED SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF TO THE S/E DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE GOING INTO MID
WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES XPCTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGER OF THESE NEXT
UPPER WAVES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE WED INTO THU...AND
WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
ABOVE H3...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS WILL
BE A THREAT EACH DAY INTO THU...WITH THE HIGHER THREATS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO WARRANT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT...MAINLY FOR
CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADWAYS.

IN KEEPING WITH THE GLOOMY WX FORECAST...THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
TO DEVIATE MUCH HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW REGIME. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC
ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND STALL EITHER JUST TO
THE N/INVOF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT MAY BE TOWARD DAY 7 WHERE THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SWD...THEREBY HELPING
TO OFFSET THIS UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND STAYS
FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS INTERACTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPO VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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