Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 182118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
318 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND PER THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR
RIGHT NEAR SUNSET BUT ARE REPLACED BY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE MAIN TRACK OF THE
LOW GOING ACROSS NORTH/MIDDLE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS PUT A BIG DENT IN
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH LESS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SATURDAY. WITH
ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERING IN...CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED ON EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND WHERE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO TURN ANY PRECIP OVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1055 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, THERE COULD BE SOME
EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECKS, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THUS FAR DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS TREND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
STATES. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING MVFR UNTIL THIS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  47  37  50 /  10  20  70  40
SHOALS        33  47  36  49 /  10  20  70  30
VINEMONT      32  46  37  50 /  10  20  70  40
FAYETTEVILLE  31  45  34  47 /  10  10  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   33  47  37  50 /  10  20  70  50
FORT PAYNE    30  47  34  50 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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